Preseason Rankings
Montana
Big Sky
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating+1.4#140
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.6#192
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.1#169
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.3#129
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.8% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 24.4% 35.3% 22.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.6 12.7 13.9
.500 or above 76.8% 91.1% 74.3%
.500 or above in Conference 87.7% 93.9% 86.6%
Conference Champion 29.0% 40.8% 26.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.2% 0.8%
First Four0.4% 0.2% 0.4%
First Round24.3% 35.1% 22.4%
Second Round3.8% 7.5% 3.1%
Sweet Sixteen1.0% 1.7% 0.8%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: USC (Away) - 15.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 33 - 34 - 7
Quad 410 - 214 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 27, 2020 57   @ USC L 66-77 15%    
  Dec 03, 2020 192   @ Southern Utah W 72-71 51%    
  Dec 05, 2020 192   @ Southern Utah W 72-71 52%    
  Dec 08, 2020 94   @ Georgia L 71-78 25%    
  Dec 16, 2020 68   @ Washington L 67-77 19%    
  Dec 22, 2020 38   @ Arizona L 66-79 13%    
  Jan 02, 2021 166   Northern Colorado W 70-65 66%    
  Jan 04, 2021 166   Northern Colorado W 70-65 67%    
  Jan 14, 2021 266   Northern Arizona W 76-65 82%    
  Jan 16, 2021 266   Northern Arizona W 76-65 81%    
  Jan 21, 2021 230   @ Sacramento St. W 66-63 59%    
  Jan 23, 2021 230   @ Sacramento St. W 66-63 59%    
  Jan 28, 2021 209   Montana St. W 74-66 74%    
  Jan 30, 2021 209   @ Montana St. W 71-69 55%    
  Feb 04, 2021 252   @ Portland St. W 79-75 63%    
  Feb 06, 2021 252   @ Portland St. W 79-75 64%    
  Feb 11, 2021 256   Weber St. W 75-65 80%    
  Feb 13, 2021 256   Weber St. W 75-65 80%    
  Feb 18, 2021 132   @ Eastern Washington L 76-79 38%    
  Feb 20, 2021 132   Eastern Washington W 79-76 59%    
  Feb 25, 2021 299   @ Idaho St. W 75-69 70%    
  Feb 27, 2021 299   @ Idaho St. W 75-69 70%    
  Mar 04, 2021 322   Idaho W 79-63 90%    
  Mar 06, 2021 322   Idaho W 79-63 90%    
Projected Record 14 - 10 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.6 6.0 7.0 6.1 3.5 1.2 29.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.4 5.4 5.9 4.0 1.6 0.2 19.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.8 5.1 4.0 1.8 0.3 0.0 14.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 2.9 4.4 2.9 0.6 0.0 11.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.1 3.7 1.8 0.3 0.0 8.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 1.6 2.6 1.1 0.2 0.0 5.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.9 0.9 0.0 4.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.1 3.1 4.5 6.4 8.3 9.6 10.9 11.3 11.4 10.3 8.6 6.3 3.5 1.2 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 1.2    1.2
19-1 100.0% 3.5    3.4 0.1
18-2 97.2% 6.1    5.4 0.7
17-3 81.5% 7.0    5.5 1.5 0.0
16-4 58.5% 6.0    3.6 2.1 0.3 0.0
15-5 31.8% 3.6    1.6 1.6 0.4 0.1
14-6 11.5% 1.3    0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 2.0% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 29.0% 29.0 21.1 6.5 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 1.2% 100.0% 100.0% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1
19-1 3.5% 99.9% 99.9% 0.0% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 33.3%
18-2 6.3% 93.8% 93.3% 0.5% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.3 2.0 0.6 0.0 0.4 7.1%
17-3 8.6% 73.4% 73.1% 0.3% 13.9 0.0 0.4 1.8 2.3 1.6 0.1 2.3 1.1%
16-4 10.3% 44.5% 44.4% 0.0% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.5 1.9 0.4 5.7 0.0%
15-5 11.4% 20.7% 20.7% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 0.7 9.0
14-6 11.3% 4.9% 4.9% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 10.7
13-7 10.9% 0.5% 0.5% 15.8 0.0 0.0 10.9
12-8 9.6% 9.6
11-9 8.3% 8.3
10-10 6.4% 6.4
9-11 4.5% 4.5
8-12 3.1% 3.1
7-13 2.1% 2.1
6-14 1.3% 1.3
5-15 0.7% 0.7
4-16 0.3% 0.3
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 24.4% 24.4% 0.1% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 2.4 6.4 7.1 5.4 1.5 75.6 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 4.0 34.0 30.2 34.0 1.9