Preseason Rankings
Iowa
Big Ten
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating+15.7#9
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace72.9#75
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+11.8#2
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.9#70
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 3.8% 3.8% 0.0%
#1 Seed 13.0% 13.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 24.8% 25.0% 2.7%
Top 4 Seed 45.0% 45.2% 10.0%
Top 6 Seed 60.1% 60.3% 28.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 79.3% 79.5% 47.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 76.2% 76.5% 45.2%
Average Seed 4.6 4.6 6.8
.500 or above 86.2% 86.5% 49.9%
.500 or above in Conference 75.2% 75.4% 44.4%
Conference Champion 15.2% 15.3% 1.6%
Last Place in Conference 1.5% 1.4% 6.0%
First Four3.2% 3.2% 5.1%
First Round78.0% 78.2% 43.4%
Second Round61.6% 61.8% 28.1%
Sweet Sixteen37.9% 38.0% 14.6%
Elite Eight20.9% 21.0% 7.5%
Final Four11.1% 11.2% 2.6%
Championship Game6.0% 6.0% 1.5%
National Champion3.0% 3.0% 0.1%

Next Game: NC Central (Home) - 99.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 64 - 6
Quad 1b4 - 27 - 8
Quad 25 - 112 - 10
Quad 33 - 015 - 10
Quad 44 - 019 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 293   NC Central W 88-62 99%    
  Nov 27, 2020 262   Southern W 88-63 99%    
  Dec 03, 2020 333   Western Illinois W 99-67 99.9%   
  Dec 08, 2020 23   North Carolina W 84-79 67%    
  Dec 11, 2020 71   Iowa St. W 88-77 83%    
  Dec 13, 2020 189   Northern Illinois W 84-63 97%    
  Dec 19, 2020 1   Gonzaga L 83-87 38%    
  Dec 22, 2020 28   @ Purdue W 74-73 51%    
  Dec 25, 2020 37   @ Minnesota W 78-76 55%    
  Dec 29, 2020 80   Northwestern W 82-70 84%    
  Jan 02, 2021 33   @ Rutgers W 76-75 53%    
  Jan 07, 2021 39   @ Maryland W 78-76 55%    
  Jan 10, 2021 37   Minnesota W 81-73 73%    
  Jan 14, 2021 10   Michigan St. W 82-79 60%    
  Jan 17, 2021 80   @ Northwestern W 79-73 68%    
  Jan 21, 2021 24   Indiana W 80-75 67%    
  Jan 24, 2021 113   Nebraska W 92-77 89%    
  Jan 29, 2021 13   @ Illinois L 75-77 42%    
  Feb 04, 2021 17   Ohio St. W 78-74 64%    
  Feb 07, 2021 24   @ Indiana L 77-78 48%    
  Feb 10, 2021 33   Rutgers W 79-72 72%    
  Feb 13, 2021 10   @ Michigan St. L 79-82 41%    
  Feb 18, 2021 8   @ Wisconsin L 70-73 40%    
  Feb 21, 2021 62   Penn St. W 86-76 78%    
  Feb 28, 2021 17   @ Ohio St. L 75-77 44%    
  Mar 04, 2021 19   @ Michigan L 78-80 45%    
  Mar 07, 2021 8   Wisconsin W 73-70 59%    
Projected Record 18 - 9 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.3 4.2 3.8 2.6 1.3 0.4 15.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.2 4.2 2.4 0.9 0.1 0.0 12.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.9 3.7 4.0 1.9 0.3 0.0 10.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 3.4 4.2 1.6 0.2 0.0 10.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.6 4.4 1.6 0.2 9.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.3 3.8 1.6 0.2 0.0 8.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.6 2.2 0.3 0.0 7.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 2.8 2.3 0.4 0.0 6.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 2.3 2.3 0.7 0.0 5.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 1.4 2.1 0.8 0.0 4.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.8 0.6 0.1 4.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.1 0.6 0.1 3.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.9 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.8 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.9 3.0 4.6 6.1 7.4 9.3 9.9 10.8 10.8 9.7 8.6 7.0 4.7 2.7 1.3 0.4 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
19-1 99.9% 1.3    1.2 0.1
18-2 95.6% 2.6    2.3 0.2 0.0
17-3 80.9% 3.8    2.8 0.9 0.1
16-4 60.5% 4.2    2.4 1.6 0.3 0.0
15-5 26.5% 2.3    0.8 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0
14-6 6.7% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 15.2% 15.2 9.9 4.0 1.1 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.4% 100.0% 48.1% 51.9% 1.0 0.3 0.0 100.0%
19-1 1.3% 100.0% 46.2% 53.8% 1.1 1.2 0.1 100.0%
18-2 2.7% 100.0% 40.6% 59.4% 1.2 2.1 0.6 0.0 100.0%
17-3 4.7% 100.0% 37.3% 62.7% 1.4 3.1 1.3 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-4 7.0% 100.0% 31.1% 68.9% 1.7 3.3 2.7 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 8.6% 100.0% 21.9% 78.1% 2.3 1.9 3.3 2.2 0.9 0.3 0.0 100.0%
14-6 9.7% 100.0% 18.7% 81.3% 3.1 0.8 2.4 3.3 2.1 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-7 10.8% 99.9% 12.0% 87.9% 4.1 0.2 1.1 2.5 3.0 2.2 1.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.9%
12-8 10.8% 99.7% 8.2% 91.4% 5.2 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.2 2.8 2.1 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.6%
11-9 9.9% 97.2% 6.3% 90.9% 6.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.6 2.0 2.0 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 97.0%
10-10 9.3% 85.8% 2.7% 83.1% 8.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.3 85.4%
9-11 7.4% 55.3% 2.6% 52.7% 10.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.3 0.1 3.3 54.1%
8-12 6.1% 22.5% 1.1% 21.4% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 4.8 21.6%
7-13 4.6% 6.2% 0.8% 5.4% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 4.3 5.4%
6-14 3.0% 0.5% 0.5% 11.5 0.0 0.0 3.0
5-15 1.9% 0.8% 0.8% 14.5 0.0 0.0 1.9
4-16 1.0% 1.0
3-17 0.5% 0.5
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 79.3% 12.9% 66.4% 4.6 13.0 11.8 10.7 9.5 8.5 6.6 5.1 3.9 2.6 2.3 2.2 2.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 20.7 76.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.0 98.5 1.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.0 100.0