Preseason Rankings
Michigan
Big Ten
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating+14.2#19
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.9#144
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+7.8#15
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.4#24
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 2.1% 2.2% 0.2%
#1 Seed 7.9% 8.3% 1.8%
Top 2 Seed 16.8% 17.7% 4.3%
Top 4 Seed 34.1% 35.5% 13.8%
Top 6 Seed 49.1% 50.8% 23.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 72.8% 74.7% 45.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 69.9% 71.9% 42.8%
Average Seed 5.3 5.3 6.6
.500 or above 81.7% 83.7% 52.8%
.500 or above in Conference 70.9% 72.4% 49.3%
Conference Champion 12.7% 13.2% 5.2%
Last Place in Conference 2.4% 2.1% 6.1%
First Four4.0% 3.9% 4.8%
First Round71.0% 73.0% 43.1%
Second Round52.1% 53.6% 30.1%
Sweet Sixteen30.2% 31.3% 14.5%
Elite Eight15.9% 16.5% 6.5%
Final Four8.1% 8.5% 2.1%
Championship Game4.1% 4.4% 0.7%
National Champion2.0% 2.1% 0.3%

Next Game: Bowling Green (Home) - 93.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 53 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 26 - 8
Quad 25 - 211 - 9
Quad 34 - 015 - 10
Quad 42 - 017 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 146   Bowling Green W 85-69 93%    
  Nov 29, 2020 243   Oakland W 82-60 98%    
  Dec 02, 2020 130   Ball St. W 78-63 92%    
  Dec 06, 2020 111   Central Florida W 78-65 88%    
  Dec 09, 2020 48   North Carolina St. W 79-72 74%    
  Dec 13, 2020 62   Penn St. W 80-72 76%    
  Dec 24, 2020 113   @ Nebraska W 82-75 74%    
  Dec 31, 2020 39   @ Maryland W 73-72 50%    
  Jan 03, 2021 80   Northwestern W 76-66 81%    
  Jan 06, 2021 37   Minnesota W 75-69 70%    
  Jan 09, 2021 62   @ Penn St. W 77-75 57%    
  Jan 12, 2021 8   Wisconsin W 69-67 55%    
  Jan 15, 2021 37   @ Minnesota W 72-71 50%    
  Jan 19, 2021 39   Maryland W 75-69 70%    
  Jan 22, 2021 28   @ Purdue L 68-69 46%    
  Jan 30, 2021 24   Indiana W 75-71 63%    
  Feb 03, 2021 80   @ Northwestern W 73-69 64%    
  Feb 06, 2021 10   Michigan St. W 76-74 55%    
  Feb 11, 2021 13   Illinois W 73-71 57%    
  Feb 14, 2021 8   @ Wisconsin L 66-70 35%    
  Feb 18, 2021 33   Rutgers W 74-68 68%    
  Feb 21, 2021 17   @ Ohio St. L 70-73 40%    
  Feb 27, 2021 24   @ Indiana L 72-74 43%    
  Mar 04, 2021 9   Iowa W 80-78 55%    
  Mar 07, 2021 10   @ Michigan St. L 73-77 37%    
Projected Record 16 - 9 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.7 2.0 3.1 3.2 2.3 1.0 0.2 12.7 1st
2nd 0.1 1.1 2.9 4.1 2.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 11.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.0 3.5 3.5 1.8 0.3 0.0 10.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 3.2 3.9 1.7 0.3 0.0 9.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.7 3.7 1.6 0.2 0.0 8.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.1 4.1 1.9 0.2 8.5 6th
7th 0.1 1.5 4.0 1.9 0.2 7.7 7th
8th 0.1 0.7 3.0 2.7 0.4 0.0 7.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 2.5 2.8 0.7 0.1 6.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 1.7 2.3 0.9 0.0 5.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.9 0.8 0.1 4.6 11th
12th 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 3.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.7 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.3 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.5 2.3 3.7 5.0 6.7 8.5 10.1 9.8 10.2 10.4 8.9 8.2 5.7 3.9 2.3 1.0 0.2 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 99.9% 1.0    0.9 0.1
18-2 97.5% 2.3    2.0 0.2 0.0
17-3 82.5% 3.2    2.3 0.8 0.1
16-4 53.4% 3.1    1.6 1.3 0.2 0.0
15-5 24.8% 2.0    0.7 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
14-6 7.6% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 12.7% 12.7 7.8 3.6 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 100.0% 55.5% 44.5% 1.1 0.2 0.0 100.0%
19-1 1.0% 100.0% 47.7% 52.3% 1.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 2.3% 100.0% 40.0% 60.0% 1.3 1.6 0.6 0.1 100.0%
17-3 3.9% 100.0% 31.9% 68.1% 1.6 2.1 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 5.7% 100.0% 25.8% 74.2% 2.0 1.8 2.6 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 8.2% 100.0% 18.8% 81.2% 2.8 0.9 2.4 2.9 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 8.9% 100.0% 14.4% 85.6% 3.7 0.3 1.1 2.6 2.5 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 10.4% 99.8% 11.7% 88.1% 4.9 0.1 0.4 1.5 2.5 2.6 1.7 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
12-8 10.2% 99.2% 5.5% 93.7% 6.1 0.1 0.5 1.0 2.1 2.5 1.9 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.1%
11-9 9.8% 96.3% 3.1% 93.2% 7.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.1 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.4 96.2%
10-10 10.1% 79.4% 2.2% 77.2% 9.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.4 0.9 0.2 0.1 2.1 78.9%
9-11 8.5% 42.4% 1.4% 40.9% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.9 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 4.9 41.5%
8-12 6.7% 11.4% 0.9% 10.4% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 5.9 10.5%
7-13 5.0% 1.2% 0.3% 0.9% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 0.9%
6-14 3.7% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.7 0.0%
5-15 2.3% 2.3
4-16 1.5% 1.5
3-17 0.9% 0.9
2-18 0.3% 0.3
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 72.8% 9.6% 63.2% 5.3 7.9 9.0 9.0 8.3 7.9 7.1 5.8 4.7 3.4 3.0 2.9 2.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 27.2 69.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 95.1 4.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0