Preseason Rankings
Marquette
Big East
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating+10.3#45
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace73.8#60
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+6.6#31
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.8#78
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.8% 1.8% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 4.3% 4.3% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 11.7% 11.7% 2.1%
Top 6 Seed 21.0% 21.1% 4.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 45.8% 45.9% 13.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 42.0% 42.1% 13.0%
Average Seed 6.9 6.9 8.3
.500 or above 59.8% 59.9% 18.3%
.500 or above in Conference 53.2% 53.3% 20.6%
Conference Champion 6.6% 6.6% 2.1%
Last Place in Conference 8.7% 8.6% 27.8%
First Four4.1% 4.1% 2.5%
First Round43.8% 43.9% 11.9%
Second Round27.0% 27.1% 6.7%
Sweet Sixteen12.6% 12.7% 2.1%
Elite Eight5.7% 5.7% 0.0%
Final Four2.3% 2.3% 0.0%
Championship Game0.9% 0.9% 0.0%
National Champion0.4% 0.4% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas Pine Bluff (Home) - 99.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 9
Quad 25 - 39 - 12
Quad 33 - 112 - 13
Quad 43 - 015 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 338   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 84-56 99.6%   
  Nov 27, 2020 186   Eastern Illinois W 85-70 92%    
  Dec 01, 2020 42   Oklahoma St. W 77-74 60%    
  Dec 04, 2020 8   Wisconsin L 69-71 42%    
  Dec 08, 2020 240   Green Bay W 95-77 95%    
  Dec 11, 2020 27   @ UCLA L 70-76 31%    
  Dec 14, 2020 12   @ Creighton L 75-83 25%    
  Dec 17, 2020 44   Seton Hall W 80-77 60%    
  Dec 20, 2020 58   @ Xavier L 74-76 43%    
  Dec 23, 2020 3   Villanova L 72-77 35%    
  Mar 08, 2021 44   @ Seton Hall L 77-80 38%    
  Mar 08, 2021 41   @ Providence L 74-78 38%    
  Mar 08, 2021 51   @ Butler L 70-72 41%    
  Mar 08, 2021 58   Xavier W 77-73 63%    
  Mar 08, 2021 73   St. John's W 84-78 68%    
  Mar 08, 2021 88   Georgetown W 83-76 72%    
  Mar 08, 2021 79   DePaul W 82-76 70%    
  Mar 08, 2021 34   Connecticut W 78-76 57%    
  Mar 08, 2021 3   @ Villanova L 69-80 19%    
  Mar 09, 2021 41   Providence W 77-75 57%    
  Mar 09, 2021 51   Butler W 73-69 62%    
  Mar 09, 2021 73   @ St. John's L 81-82 48%    
  Mar 09, 2021 88   @ Georgetown W 80-79 54%    
  Mar 09, 2021 79   @ DePaul W 79-78 51%    
  Mar 09, 2021 34   @ Connecticut L 75-79 37%    
  Mar 09, 2021 12   Creighton L 78-80 43%    
Projected Record 14 - 12 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 1.8 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.1 6.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 1.7 2.9 2.5 1.2 0.3 0.0 9.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 2.8 3.5 2.1 0.7 0.1 10.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.2 4.0 3.7 1.8 0.4 0.0 11.3 4th
5th 0.1 1.2 3.8 4.0 1.5 0.2 10.9 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 4.4 3.9 1.2 0.1 0.0 10.9 6th
7th 0.2 1.2 3.9 3.7 1.2 0.1 0.0 10.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.8 3.2 1.1 0.1 9.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.5 2.9 2.4 0.7 0.1 8.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.9 2.5 1.6 0.7 0.1 7.5 10th
11th 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.5 1.5 0.9 0.3 0.0 5.7 11th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.2 3.8 5.0 6.2 8.2 9.2 10.6 10.3 10.2 8.7 7.4 6.1 4.7 3.0 1.6 0.9 0.3 0.1 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
18-2 94.6% 0.8    0.7 0.1
17-3 80.9% 1.3    1.0 0.2 0.0
16-4 58.6% 1.8    1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0
15-5 30.4% 1.4    0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0
14-6 11.0% 0.7    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-7 2.4% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 6.6% 6.6 4.2 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 57.4% 42.6% 1.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.3% 100.0% 54.8% 45.2% 1.2 0.3 0.1 100.0%
18-2 0.9% 100.0% 39.9% 60.1% 1.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 1.6% 100.0% 34.8% 65.2% 2.1 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 3.0% 100.0% 28.0% 72.0% 3.0 0.3 0.8 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 4.7% 100.0% 18.0% 82.0% 4.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.3 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 6.1% 99.7% 14.0% 85.7% 5.3 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.2 1.5 1.3 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.6%
13-7 7.4% 98.1% 10.7% 87.3% 6.7 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 1.1 1.5 1.5 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 97.8%
12-8 8.7% 91.6% 8.4% 83.3% 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 1.4 1.6 1.3 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 90.9%
11-9 10.2% 73.1% 5.6% 67.5% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.4 1.3 1.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.7 71.5%
10-10 10.3% 43.5% 3.4% 40.1% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 5.8 41.5%
9-11 10.6% 16.1% 2.3% 13.8% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 8.9 14.1%
8-12 9.2% 2.8% 0.8% 2.0% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.0 2.0%
7-13 8.2% 0.5% 0.5% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.1
6-14 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 6.2
5-15 5.0% 0.5% 0.5% 15.7 0.0 0.0 5.0
4-16 3.8% 3.8
3-17 2.2% 2.2
2-18 1.1% 1.1
1-19 0.4% 0.4
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 45.8% 6.5% 39.3% 6.9 1.8 2.5 3.6 3.8 4.4 4.9 4.7 4.6 4.2 3.7 3.4 3.0 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 54.2 42.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.7 33.3 66.7