Preseason Rankings
Butler
Big East
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating+9.8#51
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace60.4#337
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+4.6#62
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.2#48
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.5% 1.6% 0.2%
Top 2 Seed 3.7% 3.9% 0.4%
Top 4 Seed 10.1% 10.5% 1.9%
Top 6 Seed 18.1% 18.8% 5.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 42.0% 43.2% 17.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 38.4% 39.7% 15.8%
Average Seed 7.1 7.1 8.3
.500 or above 58.4% 60.1% 26.4%
.500 or above in Conference 49.1% 50.3% 26.2%
Conference Champion 5.5% 5.7% 2.1%
Last Place in Conference 10.4% 9.8% 22.1%
First Four4.1% 4.2% 3.1%
First Round40.0% 41.2% 16.5%
Second Round24.0% 24.9% 8.4%
Sweet Sixteen10.8% 11.2% 3.0%
Elite Eight4.8% 5.0% 0.9%
Final Four2.2% 2.2% 0.3%
Championship Game0.9% 1.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.4% 0.4% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Michigan (Home) - 95.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 8
Quad 24 - 38 - 11
Quad 34 - 112 - 12
Quad 42 - 014 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 238   Western Michigan W 74-57 95%    
  Nov 29, 2020 186   Eastern Illinois W 75-61 91%    
  Dec 06, 2020 167   Northern Kentucky W 71-58 88%    
  Dec 11, 2020 89   Kansas St. W 67-60 72%    
  Dec 14, 2020 73   St. John's W 74-69 67%    
  Dec 16, 2020 3   @ Villanova L 61-72 17%    
  Dec 19, 2020 24   Indiana L 64-68 38%    
  Dec 23, 2020 41   Providence W 68-66 57%    
  Mar 08, 2021 41   @ Providence L 65-69 36%    
  Mar 08, 2021 45   Marquette W 72-70 59%    
  Mar 08, 2021 58   Xavier W 68-65 62%    
  Mar 08, 2021 88   Georgetown W 73-66 71%    
  Mar 08, 2021 79   DePaul W 72-66 69%    
  Mar 08, 2021 34   Connecticut W 69-68 54%    
  Mar 08, 2021 12   @ Creighton L 65-74 24%    
  Mar 08, 2021 44   @ Seton Hall L 67-71 38%    
  Mar 09, 2021 45   @ Marquette L 69-73 38%    
  Mar 09, 2021 58   @ Xavier L 65-68 43%    
  Mar 09, 2021 73   @ St. John's L 71-72 46%    
  Mar 09, 2021 88   @ Georgetown W 70-69 52%    
  Mar 09, 2021 79   @ DePaul L 69-70 49%    
  Mar 09, 2021 34   @ Connecticut L 66-71 35%    
  Mar 09, 2021 12   Creighton L 68-71 42%    
  Mar 09, 2021 3   Villanova L 64-69 34%    
  Mar 09, 2021 44   Seton Hall W 70-68 57%    
Projected Record 13 - 12 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 1.3 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.1 5.5 1st
2nd 0.1 0.5 1.7 2.7 2.2 1.2 0.2 0.1 8.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.9 3.0 3.1 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 9.7 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 3.4 3.7 1.6 0.3 0.0 10.2 4th
5th 0.1 1.3 3.7 3.7 1.3 0.2 0.0 10.2 5th
6th 0.1 1.5 4.2 3.8 1.1 0.1 10.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.7 3.7 1.2 0.1 10.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.1 3.6 1.0 0.1 10.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.3 2.9 0.9 0.1 9.1 9th
10th 0.2 0.7 2.1 2.8 2.0 0.5 0.1 8.4 10th
11th 0.1 0.6 1.4 1.9 1.8 0.9 0.3 0.0 6.8 11th
Total 0.1 0.6 1.5 2.6 4.2 5.5 7.3 9.0 9.8 10.4 9.9 9.3 8.5 6.8 5.5 4.0 2.6 1.4 0.8 0.2 0.1 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2
18-2 92.8% 0.8    0.7 0.1
17-3 83.7% 1.2    0.9 0.3
16-4 49.7% 1.3    0.8 0.4 0.1
15-5 30.6% 1.2    0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0
14-6 10.3% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 5.5% 5.5 3.5 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 50.0% 50.0% 1.5 0.1 0.1 100.0%
19-1 0.2% 100.0% 49.6% 50.4% 1.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.8% 100.0% 40.2% 59.8% 1.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 1.4% 100.0% 36.7% 63.3% 2.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 2.6% 100.0% 27.9% 72.1% 2.9 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 4.0% 100.0% 19.3% 80.6% 4.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 5.5% 100.0% 14.6% 85.4% 5.3 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 1.4 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 6.8% 97.4% 9.7% 87.8% 6.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 97.2%
12-8 8.5% 92.1% 6.0% 86.1% 8.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.3 1.6 1.5 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.7 91.6%
11-9 9.3% 74.3% 5.1% 69.2% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.2 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.4 72.9%
10-10 9.9% 41.3% 4.3% 37.0% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 5.8 38.7%
9-11 10.4% 14.5% 1.4% 13.1% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 8.9 13.3%
8-12 9.8% 2.6% 1.0% 1.6% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.5 1.7%
7-13 9.0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.9 0.0%
6-14 7.3% 0.2% 0.2% 15.5 0.0 0.0 7.2
5-15 5.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 5.5
4-16 4.2% 4.2
3-17 2.6% 2.6
2-18 1.5% 1.5
1-19 0.6% 0.6
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 42.0% 5.7% 36.2% 7.1 1.5 2.2 3.1 3.2 4.0 4.1 4.5 4.4 3.9 3.5 3.4 3.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 58.0 38.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.9 13.8 86.2