Preseason Rankings
Connecticut
Big East
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating+11.3#34
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.4#160
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+6.7#28
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.6#63
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
#1 Seed 2.2% 2.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 5.5% 5.5% 0.2%
Top 4 Seed 14.5% 14.5% 2.3%
Top 6 Seed 24.7% 24.8% 3.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 53.3% 53.5% 11.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 49.3% 49.5% 8.9%
Average Seed 6.8 6.8 8.0
.500 or above 72.6% 72.8% 24.9%
.500 or above in Conference 61.4% 61.5% 23.0%
Conference Champion 8.7% 8.7% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 6.3% 6.3% 12.9%
First Four4.1% 4.1% 0.5%
First Round51.4% 51.5% 11.0%
Second Round32.7% 32.8% 5.6%
Sweet Sixteen15.6% 15.6% 2.6%
Elite Eight7.3% 7.3% 2.1%
Final Four3.3% 3.3% 0.2%
Championship Game1.5% 1.5% 0.0%
National Champion0.6% 0.6% 0.0%

Next Game: Central Connecticut St. (Home) - 99.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 8
Quad 25 - 39 - 10
Quad 34 - 112 - 11
Quad 43 - 016 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 332   Central Connecticut St. W 89-62 99.6%   
  Nov 27, 2020 267   Hartford W 82-61 97%    
  Dec 01, 2020 120   Vanderbilt W 79-71 77%    
  Dec 05, 2020 48   North Carolina St. W 76-75 55%    
  Dec 08, 2020 273   Rider W 87-66 97%    
  Dec 11, 2020 73   St. John's W 82-75 72%    
  Dec 13, 2020 88   @ Georgetown W 78-76 57%    
  Dec 17, 2020 41   @ Providence L 72-75 41%    
  Dec 20, 2020 12   Creighton L 76-77 47%    
  Dec 23, 2020 79   @ DePaul W 76-75 55%    
  Mar 08, 2021 44   @ Seton Hall L 75-77 43%    
  Mar 08, 2021 51   @ Butler L 68-69 46%    
  Mar 08, 2021 45   @ Marquette L 76-78 43%    
  Mar 08, 2021 58   @ Xavier L 72-73 47%    
  Mar 08, 2021 73   @ St. John's W 79-78 51%    
  Mar 08, 2021 12   @ Creighton L 73-80 29%    
  Mar 08, 2021 3   @ Villanova L 67-77 22%    
  Mar 09, 2021 44   Seton Hall W 78-74 62%    
  Mar 09, 2021 41   Providence W 75-72 61%    
  Mar 09, 2021 51   Butler W 71-66 65%    
  Mar 09, 2021 45   Marquette W 79-75 63%    
  Mar 09, 2021 58   Xavier W 75-70 66%    
  Mar 09, 2021 88   Georgetown W 81-73 74%    
  Mar 09, 2021 79   DePaul W 79-72 73%    
  Mar 09, 2021 3   Villanova L 70-74 39%    
Projected Record 15 - 10 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.7 2.1 2.0 1.2 0.5 0.2 8.7 1st
2nd 0.1 0.4 2.2 3.5 3.2 1.9 0.6 0.1 11.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.0 3.2 4.5 2.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 12.3 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 3.9 4.4 2.2 0.5 0.0 12.1 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 3.9 4.2 1.5 0.3 11.0 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 3.6 4.0 1.3 0.1 10.3 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 3.8 3.5 1.1 0.1 0.0 9.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.0 2.9 0.8 0.1 7.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.3 2.1 0.7 0.0 6.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 1.1 2.3 1.5 0.5 0.0 5.9 10th
11th 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 3.7 11th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.4 4.2 5.3 6.8 8.7 9.0 10.1 10.5 9.6 9.3 7.4 5.8 4.2 2.6 1.2 0.5 0.2 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
18-2 95.3% 1.2    1.0 0.2
17-3 78.3% 2.0    1.5 0.5 0.0
16-4 50.8% 2.1    1.3 0.7 0.1 0.0
15-5 29.5% 1.7    0.7 0.7 0.3 0.0
14-6 11.3% 0.8    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.6% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 8.7% 8.7 5.4 2.5 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 100.0% 71.6% 28.4% 1.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.5% 100.0% 45.6% 54.4% 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.2% 100.0% 39.0% 61.0% 1.7 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 2.6% 100.0% 30.1% 69.9% 2.3 0.6 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 4.2% 100.0% 27.2% 72.8% 3.1 0.4 1.0 1.3 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 5.8% 100.0% 22.8% 77.2% 4.2 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.5 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 7.4% 99.6% 15.5% 84.2% 5.5 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.2 1.6 1.7 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 99.6%
13-7 9.3% 98.6% 10.7% 87.9% 7.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 1.6 2.3 1.7 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.1 98.4%
12-8 9.6% 91.5% 6.2% 85.2% 8.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.5 2.0 1.7 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.8 90.9%
11-9 10.5% 72.7% 5.2% 67.5% 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.9 71.2%
10-10 10.1% 44.5% 3.7% 40.7% 10.7 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.3 0.3 0.1 5.6 42.3%
9-11 9.0% 12.5% 1.7% 10.7% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 7.9 10.9%
8-12 8.7% 2.9% 0.8% 2.1% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 8.5 2.1%
7-13 6.8% 0.8% 0.7% 0.1% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.7 0.1%
6-14 5.3% 0.2% 0.2% 14.8 0.0 0.0 5.2
5-15 4.2% 0.2% 0.2% 15.1 0.0 0.0 4.2
4-16 2.4% 2.4
3-17 1.3% 1.3
2-18 0.6% 0.6
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 53.3% 8.0% 45.3% 6.8 2.2 3.3 4.4 4.6 4.8 5.4 5.9 5.8 5.1 4.1 3.7 3.0 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 46.7 49.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.2 81.4 18.6