Preseason Rankings
Providence
Big East
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating+10.9#41
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.4#159
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.0#55
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.9#33
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.6% 0.6% 0.0%
#1 Seed 2.5% 2.6% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 5.9% 6.0% 0.9%
Top 4 Seed 14.7% 15.0% 4.3%
Top 6 Seed 24.8% 25.3% 8.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 49.2% 50.1% 20.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 45.0% 45.9% 18.2%
Average Seed 6.6 6.6 7.7
.500 or above 61.3% 62.3% 28.1%
.500 or above in Conference 58.4% 59.1% 35.1%
Conference Champion 8.1% 8.3% 2.7%
Last Place in Conference 7.4% 7.1% 16.9%
First Four4.7% 4.7% 3.6%
First Round47.1% 48.0% 18.6%
Second Round30.2% 30.7% 11.0%
Sweet Sixteen15.0% 15.3% 4.6%
Elite Eight6.9% 7.0% 1.8%
Final Four3.0% 3.0% 0.6%
Championship Game1.3% 1.3% 0.3%
National Champion0.6% 0.6% 0.0%

Next Game: Fairfield (Home) - 97.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 8
Quad 25 - 39 - 11
Quad 33 - 112 - 12
Quad 42 - 014 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 268   Fairfield W 73-53 97%    
  Nov 30, 2020 24   Indiana L 70-72 42%    
  Dec 05, 2020 233   Fairleigh Dickinson W 84-65 95%    
  Dec 09, 2020 69   @ TCU L 67-68 50%    
  Dec 12, 2020 58   Xavier W 74-69 66%    
  Dec 17, 2020 34   Connecticut W 75-72 59%    
  Dec 20, 2020 44   @ Seton Hall L 73-76 41%    
  Dec 23, 2020 51   @ Butler L 66-68 43%    
  Mar 08, 2021 51   Butler W 69-65 64%    
  Mar 08, 2021 45   Marquette W 78-74 62%    
  Mar 08, 2021 73   St. John's W 80-74 70%    
  Mar 08, 2021 88   Georgetown W 79-71 75%    
  Mar 08, 2021 79   DePaul W 78-71 72%    
  Mar 08, 2021 12   @ Creighton L 71-78 27%    
  Mar 08, 2021 3   @ Villanova L 66-76 20%    
  Mar 09, 2021 45   @ Marquette L 75-77 43%    
  Mar 09, 2021 58   @ Xavier L 71-72 46%    
  Mar 09, 2021 73   @ St. John's W 77-76 51%    
  Mar 09, 2021 88   @ Georgetown W 76-74 56%    
  Mar 09, 2021 79   @ DePaul W 75-74 52%    
  Mar 09, 2021 34   @ Connecticut L 72-75 39%    
  Mar 09, 2021 12   Creighton L 74-75 46%    
  Mar 09, 2021 3   Villanova L 69-73 37%    
  Mar 09, 2021 44   Seton Hall W 76-73 61%    
Projected Record 13 - 11 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.5 2.1 1.9 1.1 0.5 0.1 8.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.6 2.1 3.3 3.1 1.6 0.5 0.1 11.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 3.3 4.0 2.6 0.8 0.1 11.9 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 3.7 4.1 2.0 0.4 0.0 11.3 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 3.8 4.1 1.5 0.1 0.0 10.8 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 3.6 3.7 1.3 0.2 10.1 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 3.4 3.5 1.2 0.1 9.4 7th
8th 0.2 1.2 3.7 3.2 1.0 0.0 9.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.5 2.4 0.8 0.1 7.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.1 1.6 0.4 0.1 6.1 10th
11th 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.4 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 4.7 11th
Total 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.9 2.7 4.3 5.6 7.7 8.8 9.4 9.7 10.3 9.6 8.3 7.1 5.4 3.8 2.3 1.2 0.5 0.1 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
18-2 95.4% 1.1    1.0 0.1
17-3 80.0% 1.9    1.4 0.4 0.0
16-4 54.8% 2.1    1.3 0.7 0.1 0.0
15-5 27.2% 1.5    0.6 0.6 0.3 0.0
14-6 11.6% 0.8    0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 8.1% 8.1 5.2 2.1 0.7 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 68.0% 32.0% 1.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.5% 100.0% 52.6% 47.4% 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.2% 100.0% 40.7% 59.3% 1.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 2.3% 100.0% 35.5% 64.5% 2.0 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 3.8% 100.0% 25.8% 74.2% 3.0 0.4 1.1 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 5.4% 100.0% 20.3% 79.7% 3.9 0.2 0.7 1.4 1.4 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 7.1% 99.5% 14.6% 84.9% 5.3 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.4 1.7 1.4 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.4%
13-7 8.3% 98.4% 10.8% 87.6% 6.7 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.4 1.7 1.5 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 98.2%
12-8 9.6% 90.1% 9.0% 81.1% 8.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.9 89.2%
11-9 10.3% 71.6% 4.6% 67.0% 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.9 70.2%
10-10 9.7% 33.6% 3.2% 30.4% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.0 0.4 0.0 6.5 31.4%
9-11 9.4% 11.4% 1.8% 9.6% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 8.3 9.8%
8-12 8.8% 2.1% 1.3% 0.8% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 8.6 0.9%
7-13 7.7% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 7.6 0.0%
6-14 5.6% 0.1% 0.1% 15.7 0.0 0.0 5.6
5-15 4.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 4.3
4-16 2.7% 2.7
3-17 1.9% 1.9
2-18 1.0% 1.0
1-19 0.3% 0.3
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 49.2% 7.7% 41.5% 6.6 2.5 3.4 4.4 4.5 5.0 5.1 4.9 4.5 3.8 3.3 3.4 3.3 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 50.8 45.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.0 98.4 1.6