IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Fairfield
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2020-21

Overall
Predictive Rating	-6.2	#268
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	59.6	#342
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-7.6	#334

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+1.4	#127

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	4.6%	9.2%	4.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.1	14.7	15.2

.500 or above	33.5%	67.8%	32.4%
.500 or above in Conference	40.3%	63.3%	39.6%
Conference Champion	4.5%	13.5%	4.2%
Last Place in Conference	15.5%	4.1%	15.8%

First Four	1.2%	0.9%	1.2%
First Round	4.1%	8.6%	4.0%
Second Round	0.1%	0.4%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Providence (Away) - 2.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 0	0 - 1
Quad 2	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 3	2 - 6	2 - 8
Quad 4	9 - 7	11 - 15

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 25, 2020	41	@ Providence	L	53-73	3%
Nov 28, 2020	224	@ Stony Brook	L	59-64	32%
Dec 02, 2020	267	Hartford	W	63-60	61%
Dec 11, 2020	149	Siena	L	60-64	36%
Dec 12, 2020	149	Siena	L	60-64	36%
Dec 18, 2020	259	@ Niagara	L	61-64	38%
Dec 19, 2020	259	@ Niagara	L	61-64	39%
Dec 22, 2020	254	William & Mary	L	63-64	49%
Jan 01, 2021	273	Rider	W	66-63	61%
Jan 02, 2021	273	Rider	W	66-63	60%
Jan 08, 2021	195	@ St. Peter's	L	56-63	27%
Jan 09, 2021	195	@ St. Peter's	L	56-63	28%
Jan 15, 2021	284	@ Marist	L	57-59	42%
Jan 16, 2021	284	@ Marist	L	57-59	42%
Jan 22, 2021	221	Canisius	W	65-64	53%
Jan 23, 2021	221	Canisius	W	65-64	53%
Jan 29, 2021	222	Iona	W	64-63	52%
Jan 30, 2021	222	Iona	W	64-63	53%
Feb 05, 2021	251	@ Manhattan	L	56-60	37%
Feb 06, 2021	251	@ Manhattan	L	56-60	38%
Feb 19, 2021	176	@ Monmouth	L	62-70	24%
Feb 20, 2021	176	@ Monmouth	L	62-70	24%
Mar 05, 2021	288	Quinnipiac	W	65-61	63%
Mar 06, 2021	288	Quinnipiac	W	65-61	62%
Projected Record						10 - 14	9 - 11

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.2	0.7	1.1	1.1	0.8	0.4	0.1	0.1		4.5	1st
2nd												0.1	0.6	1.8	1.9	1.3	0.6	0.1	0.0				6.4	2nd
3rd											0.1	0.9	2.4	2.4	1.3	0.2	0.0						7.3	3rd
4th										0.1	1.1	3.1	3.1	0.8	0.1	0.0							8.3	4th
5th									0.0	1.0	3.5	3.1	0.9	0.1									8.7	5th
6th							0.0	0.0	1.2	3.7	3.9	1.0	0.1										10.0	6th
7th						0.0	0.1	1.3	4.0	4.1	1.1	0.1											10.7	7th
8th					0.0	0.1	1.4	4.0	4.0	1.2	0.1	0.0											10.8	8th
9th				0.0	0.3	2.1	4.1	3.6	1.2	0.1													11.5	9th
10th		0.0	0.1	0.9	2.5	3.9	3.2	0.9	0.1	0.0													11.6	10th
11th	0.2	0.9	2.0	2.7	2.7	1.4	0.4	0.0															10.3	11th

Total	0.2	0.9	2.1	3.6	5.5	7.5	9.3	9.9	10.6	10.2	9.7	8.3	7.2	5.3	4.0	2.7	1.7	0.9	0.4	0.1	0.1			Total

Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.1		0.1
19-1	100.0%	0.1		0.1
18-2	99.8%	0.4		0.4	0.0
17-3	88.6%	0.8		0.7	0.1
16-4	64.5%	1.1		0.8	0.3	0.0
15-5	42.6%	1.1		0.6	0.5	0.1
14-6	17.1%	0.7		0.2	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.0
13-7	3.1%	0.2		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0
12-8	0.1%	0.0			0.0	0.0		0.0
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	4.5%	4.5		2.8	1.3	0.4	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.1%		21.6%	21.6%		9.2									0.0				0.0	0.0				0.0
19-1	0.1%		42.1%	42.1%		12.4											0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0				0.1
18-2	0.4%		36.4%	36.4%		13.3													0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0		0.3
17-3	0.9%		31.1%	31.1%		13.9													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1		0.6
16-4	1.7%		23.3%	23.3%		14.1													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	1.3
15-5	2.7%		23.3%	23.3%		14.7														0.1	0.2	0.3	0.1	2.1
14-6	4.0%		15.1%	15.1%		15.0														0.0	0.1	0.3	0.2	3.4
13-7	5.3%		11.5%	11.5%		15.5															0.1	0.2	0.3	4.7
12-8	7.2%		8.9%	8.9%		15.7															0.0	0.2	0.5	6.5
11-9	8.3%		6.6%	6.6%		15.8															0.0	0.1	0.4	7.7
10-10	9.7%		3.3%	3.3%		16.0																0.0	0.3	9.4
9-11	10.2%		2.0%	2.0%		16.0																0.0	0.2	10.0
8-12	10.6%		1.1%	1.1%		15.9																0.0	0.1	10.5
7-13	9.9%		0.5%	0.5%		16.0																	0.1	9.8
6-14	9.3%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	9.3
5-15	7.5%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	7.5
4-16	5.5%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	5.5
3-17	3.6%																							3.6
2-18	2.1%																							2.1
1-19	0.9%																							0.9
0-20	0.2%																							0.2

Total	100%		4.6%	4.6%	0.0%	15.1									0.0		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.8	1.2	2.2	95.4		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.1%