Preseason Rankings
Marshall
Conference USA
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating+4.1#110
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace83.9#3
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.9#97
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.2#133
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
Top 4 Seed 0.5% 0.5% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 1.0% 1.0% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.6% 17.1% 4.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 5.8% 6.0% 0.9%
Average Seed 11.1 11.1 12.1
.500 or above 78.0% 79.1% 49.5%
.500 or above in Conference 75.8% 76.5% 58.9%
Conference Champion 14.7% 15.0% 5.6%
Last Place in Conference 1.5% 1.4% 4.0%
First Four2.1% 2.1% 0.7%
First Round15.5% 16.0% 4.7%
Second Round4.8% 5.0% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen1.5% 1.5% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Coppin St. (Home) - 96.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 42 - 5
Quad 37 - 59 - 10
Quad 49 - 118 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 327   Coppin St. W 94-75 96%    
  Nov 27, 2020 269   Tennessee St. W 87-74 89%    
  Dec 02, 2020 121   @ Wright St. L 84-86 43%    
  Dec 05, 2020 126   @ Akron L 81-82 45%    
  Dec 09, 2020 162   @ College of Charleston W 78-77 55%    
  Dec 13, 2020 134   Ohio W 82-77 68%    
  Dec 16, 2020 137   Toledo W 84-79 69%    
  Dec 19, 2020 64   Northern Iowa L 77-79 44%    
  Dec 22, 2020 226   UNC Asheville W 91-80 84%    
  Jan 01, 2021 109   @ Louisiana Tech L 77-80 40%    
  Jan 02, 2021 109   @ Louisiana Tech L 77-80 40%    
  Jan 07, 2021 164   Charlotte W 79-72 74%    
  Jan 09, 2021 164   Charlotte W 79-72 74%    
  Jan 14, 2021 82   @ Western Kentucky L 79-85 32%    
  Jan 17, 2021 82   Western Kentucky W 83-82 51%    
  Jan 21, 2021 171   @ Florida International W 87-85 56%    
  Jan 23, 2021 171   @ Florida International W 87-85 56%    
  Jan 28, 2021 191   Florida Atlantic W 83-74 78%    
  Jan 30, 2021 191   Florida Atlantic W 83-74 78%    
  Feb 05, 2021 118   @ Old Dominion L 75-77 42%    
  Feb 06, 2021 118   @ Old Dominion L 75-77 42%    
  Feb 11, 2021 193   Middle Tennessee W 87-78 78%    
  Feb 13, 2021 193   Middle Tennessee W 87-78 78%    
  Feb 19, 2021 265   @ Rice W 88-81 72%    
  Feb 20, 2021 265   @ Rice W 88-81 73%    
  Feb 25, 2021 95   North Texas W 75-74 54%    
  Feb 27, 2021 95   North Texas W 75-74 55%    
Projected Record 17 - 10 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.3 3.4 4.3 3.4 1.6 0.5 14.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.3 4.5 4.3 1.7 0.3 0.0 13.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.2 5.0 3.8 0.9 0.1 0.0 12.2 3rd
4th 0.1 1.4 5.0 3.6 0.7 0.0 10.9 4th
5th 0.1 1.0 4.1 3.7 0.7 0.1 9.5 5th
6th 0.4 3.0 3.9 0.9 0.1 8.3 6th
7th 0.2 2.1 3.6 1.3 0.1 7.2 7th
8th 0.0 1.1 3.0 1.8 0.1 0.0 6.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.5 2.2 0.4 0.0 5.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.5 1.7 0.6 0.0 4.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.6 0.5 0.0 3.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.6 0.1 2.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.1 1.7 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.8 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.7 2.6 4.4 6.1 8.3 9.8 11.2 12.3 11.9 10.3 8.6 6.1 3.7 1.6 0.5 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
17-1 99.4% 1.6    1.5 0.1
16-2 92.4% 3.4    2.9 0.5 0.0
15-3 70.8% 4.3    2.7 1.4 0.2
14-4 39.2% 3.4    1.4 1.5 0.4 0.0
13-5 12.6% 1.3    0.2 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.2% 0.3    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 14.7% 14.7 9.2 3.9 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.5% 95.9% 42.9% 53.0% 5.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 92.9%
17-1 1.6% 88.3% 44.0% 44.4% 7.7 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 79.2%
16-2 3.7% 72.9% 40.4% 32.5% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.0 54.6%
15-3 6.1% 52.7% 30.8% 21.8% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 2.9 31.6%
14-4 8.6% 34.1% 22.4% 11.7% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 0.6 0.1 5.7 15.1%
13-5 10.3% 23.2% 18.6% 4.6% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 7.9 5.6%
12-6 11.9% 13.1% 11.8% 1.2% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 10.3 1.4%
11-7 12.3% 8.8% 8.3% 0.5% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 11.2 0.5%
10-8 11.2% 4.4% 4.4% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 10.7
9-9 9.8% 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 9.6 0.0%
8-10 8.3% 1.7% 1.7% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 8.1
7-11 6.1% 1.2% 1.2% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.1
6-12 4.4% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 4.4
5-13 2.6% 2.6
4-14 1.7% 1.7
3-15 0.7% 0.7
2-16 0.3% 0.3
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 16.6% 11.5% 5.1% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 1.1 1.8 2.8 4.4 3.0 1.1 0.3 0.1 83.4 5.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 2.8 12.6 28.7 20.7 37.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 3.9 3.1 50.0 21.9 25.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 3.8 25.0 75.0