IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Hawaii
Big West
2020-21

Overall
Predictive Rating	-2.6	#200
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	69.5	#154
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-2.3	#242

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-0.3	#177

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	9.9%	11.4%	4.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.6	14.3	14.9

.500 or above	64.3%	67.4%	37.1%
.500 or above in Conference	70.7%	72.5%	54.9%
Conference Champion	10.9%	11.6%	4.9%
Last Place in Conference	6.6%	5.9%	12.9%

First Four	1.7%	1.8%	0.9%
First Round	9.9%	10.6%	4.3%
Second Round	1.0%	1.1%	0.3%
Sweet Sixteen	0.3%	0.3%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Alcorn St. (Home) - 89.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 2	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 3	3 - 5	3 - 6
Quad 4	10 - 4	13 - 10

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Dec 12, 2020	334	Alcorn St.	W	81-67	90%
Dec 27, 2020	315	Cal Poly	W	77-67	82%
Dec 28, 2020	315	Cal Poly	W	77-67	82%
Jan 08, 2021	208	@ UC Riverside	L	63-65	42%
Jan 09, 2021	208	@ UC Riverside	L	63-65	42%
Jan 15, 2021	214	Cal St. Bakersfield	W	69-65	63%
Jan 16, 2021	214	Cal St. Bakersfield	W	69-65	64%
Jan 22, 2021	298	@ Cal St. Fullerton	W	72-70	58%
Jan 23, 2021	298	@ Cal St. Fullerton	W	72-70	57%
Jan 29, 2021	119	UC Irvine	L	68-71	41%
Jan 30, 2021	119	UC Irvine	L	68-71	41%
Feb 05, 2021	232	@ UC San Diego	L	63-64	46%
Feb 06, 2021	232	@ UC San Diego	L	63-64	46%
Feb 12, 2021	141	UC Santa Barbara	L	68-69	47%
Feb 13, 2021	141	UC Santa Barbara	L	68-69	47%
Feb 19, 2021	308	@ Cal St. Northridge	W	78-75	60%
Feb 20, 2021	308	@ Cal St. Northridge	W	78-75	60%
Feb 26, 2021	228	Long Beach St.	W	77-72	64%
Feb 27, 2021	228	Long Beach St.	W	77-72	64%
Mar 05, 2021	204	@ UC Davis	L	70-73	41%
Mar 06, 2021	204	@ UC Davis	L	70-73	41%
Projected Record						12 - 9	10 - 8

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big West Finish

	0-16	1-15	2-14	3-13	4-12	5-11	6-10	7-9	8-8	9-7	10-6	11-5	12-4	13-3	14-2	15-1	16-0		Total
1st												0.1	0.4	1.4	2.4	3.0	2.0		9.3	1st
2nd										0.0	0.1	1.0	3.5	4.0	2.8	0.8	0.1		12.5	2nd
3rd									0.0	0.3	1.7	4.6	4.5	1.8	0.4	0.0			13.4	3rd
4th								0.0	0.3	2.4	5.1	4.0	1.1	0.1					13.0	4th
5th							0.0	0.4	2.6	5.1	3.5	0.7	0.1						12.4	5th
6th						0.0	0.4	2.2	4.4	2.9	0.5	0.0							10.4	6th
7th					0.0	0.5	2.5	4.0	2.3	0.2	0.0								9.6	7th
8th				0.1	0.6	2.3	3.2	1.8	0.2	0.0									8.2	8th
9th		0.0	0.1	0.8	1.9	1.9	0.9	0.1	0.0										5.7	9th
10th	0.1	0.3	0.9	1.3	1.0	0.4	0.0												3.9	10th

Total	0.1	0.4	1.0	2.1	3.5	5.1	7.1	8.5	9.9	10.9	11.0	10.5	9.6	7.4	5.6	3.9	2.1			Total

Big West Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
16-0	95.1%	2.0		1.7	0.2
15-1	78.1%	3.0		2.1	0.8	0.1
14-2	43.5%	2.4		1.2	1.0	0.2	0.0
13-3	19.3%	1.4		0.4	0.7	0.2	0.1
12-4	4.2%	0.4		0.0	0.2	0.1	0.1		0.0
11-5	0.6%	0.1			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
10-6	0.0%
9-7	0.0%
8-8	0.0%

Total	9.3%	9.3		5.5	3.0	0.6	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
16-0	2.1%		41.2%	41.0%	0.1%	13.1												0.0	0.2	0.4	0.2	0.1		1.2		0.2%
15-1	3.9%		35.3%	35.3%	0.0%	13.7												0.0	0.1	0.5	0.6	0.2	0.0	2.5		0.0%
14-2	5.6%		28.0%	28.0%		14.1													0.0	0.4	0.7	0.4	0.0	4.0
13-3	7.4%		22.1%	22.1%		14.6														0.2	0.6	0.7	0.2	5.8
12-4	9.6%		13.4%	13.4%		15.1														0.0	0.2	0.7	0.3	8.3
11-5	10.5%		10.6%	10.6%		15.3														0.0	0.1	0.5	0.5	9.4
10-6	11.0%		7.1%	7.1%		15.7															0.0	0.2	0.6	10.2
9-7	10.9%		5.0%	5.0%		15.9																0.0	0.5	10.3
8-8	9.9%		3.8%	3.8%		16.0																0.0	0.4	9.5
7-9	8.5%		1.9%	1.9%		16.0																	0.2	8.4
6-10	7.1%		1.9%	1.9%		16.0																	0.1	6.9
5-11	5.1%		1.1%	1.1%		16.0																	0.1	5.0
4-12	3.5%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	3.5
3-13	2.1%																							2.1
2-14	1.0%																							1.0
1-15	0.4%																							0.4
0-16	0.1%																							0.1

Total	100%		9.9%	9.9%	0.0%	14.7												0.0	0.3	1.5	2.5	2.7	2.9	90.1		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.2%	100.0%	7.4				14.4	7.2	25.1	5.4	10.8	21.0	4.8	5.4	6.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.0%	39.5%	9.6							18.6					20.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.0%	42.9%	11.1											38.1	4.8