Preseason Rankings
Army
Patriot League
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating-7.2#289
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace71.4#105
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-4.5#296
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-2.7#249
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.9% 8.3% 3.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.0 15.4
.500 or above 27.9% 56.8% 24.5%
.500 or above in Conference 18.4% 30.7% 17.0%
Conference Champion 1.7% 3.0% 1.5%
Last Place in Conference 14.6% 8.5% 15.3%
First Four1.3% 1.4% 1.3%
First Round3.2% 7.6% 2.7%
Second Round0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: San Francisco (Neutral) - 10.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 31 - 41 - 6
Quad 45 - 36 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 27, 2020 91   San Francisco L 67-80 11%    
  Nov 27, 2020 85   St. Bonaventure L 63-77 10%    
  Jan 02, 2021 139   @ Colgate L 68-80 14%    
  Jan 03, 2021 139   Colgate L 71-77 31%    
  Jan 09, 2021 335   @ Holy Cross W 75-72 62%    
  Jan 10, 2021 335   Holy Cross W 78-69 78%    
  Jan 23, 2021 213   @ Navy L 61-68 29%    
  Jan 24, 2021 213   @ Navy L 61-68 29%    
  Jan 30, 2021 139   Colgate L 71-77 32%    
  Jan 31, 2021 139   @ Colgate L 68-80 17%    
  Feb 06, 2021 335   Holy Cross W 78-69 78%    
  Feb 07, 2021 335   @ Holy Cross W 75-72 61%    
  Feb 20, 2021 213   Navy L 64-65 48%    
  Feb 21, 2021 213   Navy L 64-65 48%    
Projected Record 5 - 9 5 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.2 1.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.4 0.6 0.1 3.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 2.2 2.6 0.9 0.1 6.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.8 4.2 1.2 0.1 10.3 4th
5th 0.1 1.4 5.1 5.3 1.6 0.1 13.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.3 6.4 6.9 2.1 0.2 18.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.0 6.0 6.0 1.9 0.1 16.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.4 4.2 4.9 1.6 0.1 12.4 8th
9th 0.2 1.1 3.4 3.6 1.4 0.1 9.8 9th
10th 1.2 2.7 2.7 1.2 0.1 7.9 10th
Total 1.4 4.0 7.6 11.3 14.8 15.5 15.0 12.0 8.4 5.3 3.1 1.2 0.3 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 76.3% 0.2    0.1 0.1
11-5 48.1% 0.6    0.3 0.3 0.0
10-6 22.7% 0.7    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
9-7 3.2% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
8-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
Total 1.7% 1.7 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 0.3% 29.2% 28.8% 0.3% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5%
11-5 1.2% 28.1% 28.1% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.9
10-6 3.1% 20.3% 20.3% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 2.5
9-7 5.3% 12.3% 12.3% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 4.7
8-8 8.4% 7.9% 7.9% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 7.8
7-9 12.0% 5.6% 5.6% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 11.3
6-10 15.0% 2.9% 2.9% 15.9 0.1 0.4 14.6
5-11 15.5% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 0.2 15.3
4-12 14.8% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.2 14.7
3-13 11.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 11.2
2-14 7.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.6
1-15 4.0% 4.0
0-16 1.4% 1.4
Total 100% 3.9% 3.9% 0.0% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 2.0 96.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.1%