Preseason Rankings
Belmont
Ohio Valley
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating+4.0#114
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace73.5#65
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.8#99
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.2#134
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.0% 1.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 29.3% 30.1% 17.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.3% 1.4% 0.2%
Average Seed 12.9 12.8 14.0
.500 or above 97.5% 98.0% 90.3%
.500 or above in Conference 97.4% 97.7% 93.8%
Conference Champion 35.0% 36.0% 22.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.0% 1.0% 0.5%
First Round28.8% 29.6% 17.3%
Second Round5.8% 6.1% 1.6%
Sweet Sixteen1.8% 1.9% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.5% 0.0%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Howard (Neutral) - 93.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 11 - 2
Quad 35 - 35 - 5
Quad 416 - 222 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 26, 2020 326   Howard W 89-73 93%    
  Nov 27, 2020 123   George Mason W 74-73 55%    
  Nov 28, 2020 163   Northeastern W 75-71 65%    
  Dec 02, 2020 269   @ Tennessee St. W 79-72 74%    
  Dec 05, 2020 301   Samford W 90-75 91%    
  Dec 08, 2020 269   Tennessee St. W 82-69 88%    
  Dec 12, 2020 170   @ Lipscomb W 78-76 56%    
  Dec 16, 2020 342   Kennesaw St. W 85-61 98%    
  Dec 21, 2020 261   @ Evansville W 77-70 73%    
  Dec 30, 2020 105   Murray St. W 77-74 60%    
  Jan 02, 2021 324   @ Tennessee Martin W 86-74 86%    
  Jan 07, 2021 325   Southeast Missouri St. W 85-66 95%    
  Jan 09, 2021 324   Tennessee Martin W 89-71 94%    
  Jan 14, 2021 304   @ Tennessee Tech W 78-69 79%    
  Jan 16, 2021 255   @ Jacksonville St. W 77-70 71%    
  Jan 21, 2021 186   Eastern Illinois W 81-72 77%    
  Jan 23, 2021 331   SIU Edwardsville W 85-66 95%    
  Jan 28, 2021 133   @ Austin Peay L 76-77 48%    
  Jan 30, 2021 105   @ Murray St. L 74-77 38%    
  Feb 04, 2021 186   @ Eastern Illinois W 78-75 59%    
  Feb 06, 2021 331   @ SIU Edwardsville W 82-69 87%    
  Feb 11, 2021 211   Eastern Kentucky W 88-78 81%    
  Feb 13, 2021 296   Morehead St. W 82-67 89%    
  Feb 18, 2021 255   Jacksonville St. W 80-67 85%    
  Feb 20, 2021 304   Tennessee Tech W 81-66 89%    
  Feb 25, 2021 211   @ Eastern Kentucky W 85-81 64%    
  Feb 27, 2021 296   @ Morehead St. W 79-70 77%    
Projected Record 21 - 6 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.4 4.3 8.4 10.2 7.4 3.0 35.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 3.1 6.5 9.0 6.2 1.6 0.1 27.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 3.0 5.5 5.0 2.0 0.2 16.7 3rd
4th 0.1 0.8 2.4 3.6 2.2 0.4 0.0 9.5 4th
5th 0.1 0.5 1.7 2.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 5.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.2 0.4 0.1 3.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.4 4.1 5.6 8.2 11.2 13.4 15.4 14.8 11.8 7.6 3.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 3.0    3.0
19-1 98.5% 7.4    6.9 0.6
18-2 86.4% 10.2    7.9 2.3 0.1
17-3 56.8% 8.4    4.5 3.5 0.4
16-4 28.2% 4.3    1.8 2.0 0.5 0.0
15-5 10.7% 1.4    0.4 0.6 0.3 0.1
14-6 2.0% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 35.0% 35.0 24.5 9.0 1.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 3.0% 82.2% 69.0% 13.2% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.5 42.7%
19-1 7.6% 64.3% 59.2% 5.1% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.9 1.4 1.4 0.4 0.0 2.7 12.5%
18-2 11.8% 49.2% 48.2% 1.0% 12.8 0.1 0.3 1.7 2.6 1.0 0.1 6.0 2.0%
17-3 14.8% 38.6% 38.3% 0.3% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.7 2.5 1.9 0.5 0.0 9.1 0.5%
16-4 15.4% 29.4% 29.4% 13.9 0.2 1.3 1.8 1.1 0.1 10.8
15-5 13.4% 21.0% 21.0% 14.4 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.0 0.3 10.6
14-6 11.2% 14.7% 14.7% 14.7 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.3 9.6
13-7 8.2% 9.9% 9.9% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 7.4
12-8 5.6% 6.2% 6.2% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 5.3
11-9 4.1% 4.1% 4.1% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.9
10-10 2.4% 4.0% 4.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.3
9-11 1.3% 0.8% 0.8% 15.9 0.0 0.0 1.3
8-12 0.7% 0.7
7-13 0.3% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 0.3
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 29.3% 28.3% 0.9% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 1.5 4.4 8.4 6.9 4.1 1.5 70.7 1.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.9% 100.0% 5.1 1.8 3.4 13.4 23.6 20.6 18.0 7.2 5.4 4.5 1.7 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 62.2% 9.4 13.4 8.0 8.8 8.4 19.7 3.4 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 46.5% 10.2 1.0 8.1 2.0 14.1 2.0 9.1 10.1