Preseason Rankings
Louisiana
Sun Belt
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating-1.4#185
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace76.3#37
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.7#149
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-2.0#232
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.8% 7.1% 3.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.2 13.1 13.8
.500 or above 51.6% 60.8% 32.5%
.500 or above in Conference 50.2% 55.6% 38.9%
Conference Champion 6.6% 8.1% 3.5%
Last Place in Conference 7.9% 6.0% 11.7%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round5.7% 7.0% 3.1%
Second Round0.9% 1.2% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: New Orleans (Away) - 67.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 3
Quad 34 - 54 - 9
Quad 47 - 311 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Dec 02, 2020 312   @ New Orleans W 83-78 68%    
  Dec 12, 2020 109   Louisiana Tech L 74-77 41%    
  Dec 15, 2020 312   New Orleans W 86-75 84%    
  Dec 18, 2020 99   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 71-81 20%    
  Jan 01, 2021 143   Texas St. W 73-72 51%    
  Jan 02, 2021 143   Texas St. W 73-72 51%    
  Jan 08, 2021 127   Arkansas Little Rock L 79-80 48%    
  Jan 09, 2021 127   Arkansas Little Rock L 79-80 48%    
  Jan 15, 2021 156   @ Texas Arlington L 73-78 33%    
  Jan 16, 2021 156   @ Texas Arlington L 73-78 34%    
  Jan 22, 2021 219   Arkansas St. W 81-75 68%    
  Jan 23, 2021 219   Arkansas St. W 81-75 67%    
  Jan 29, 2021 143   @ Texas St. L 70-76 32%    
  Jan 30, 2021 143   @ Texas St. L 70-76 32%    
  Feb 05, 2021 219   @ Arkansas St. L 77-78 49%    
  Feb 06, 2021 219   @ Arkansas St. L 77-78 49%    
  Feb 11, 2021 278   Louisiana Monroe W 76-68 75%    
  Feb 13, 2021 278   @ Louisiana Monroe W 73-71 57%    
  Feb 19, 2021 156   Texas Arlington W 76-75 53%    
  Feb 20, 2021 156   Texas Arlington W 76-75 55%    
  Feb 26, 2021 127   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 76-83 29%    
  Feb 27, 2021 127   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 76-83 29%    
Projected Record 11 - 11 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.5 1.8 1.4 0.7 0.1 6.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.7 2.5 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 7.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.1 3.3 1.7 0.3 0.1 7.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.6 3.5 2.0 0.3 0.0 8.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.4 4.2 1.9 0.3 0.0 9.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.6 4.5 2.2 0.3 0.0 9.8 6th
7th 0.3 2.2 4.5 2.7 0.4 0.0 10.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.7 4.5 3.0 0.5 0.0 10.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.0 3.7 2.8 0.5 0.0 9.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 2.1 3.2 2.5 0.5 0.0 9.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.8 2.6 1.4 0.5 0.0 7.1 11th
12th 0.2 0.9 1.3 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 4.4 12th
Total 0.2 1.0 2.2 3.5 5.7 7.1 8.8 10.2 11.1 10.5 9.8 8.2 7.4 5.3 3.8 2.6 1.6 0.7 0.1 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
17-1 96.1% 0.7    0.6 0.1
16-2 87.3% 1.4    1.1 0.3 0.0
15-3 69.9% 1.8    1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0
14-4 40.2% 1.5    0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0
13-5 15.1% 0.8    0.1 0.4 0.2 0.1
12-6 2.5% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 6.6% 6.6 3.8 2.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 100.0% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.7% 95.1% 92.7% 2.4% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 33.3%
16-2 1.6% 86.5% 83.0% 3.5% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.2 20.7%
15-3 2.6% 65.2% 63.6% 1.6% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.9 4.4%
14-4 3.8% 33.9% 33.9% 0.1% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0 2.5 0.1%
13-5 5.3% 10.2% 9.9% 0.3% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 4.8 0.4%
12-6 7.4% 0.9% 0.9% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.4
11-7 8.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 8.2
10-8 9.8% 9.8
9-9 10.5% 10.5
8-10 11.1% 11.1
7-11 10.2% 10.2
6-12 8.8% 8.8
5-13 7.1% 7.1
4-14 5.7% 5.7
3-15 3.5% 3.5
2-16 2.2% 2.2
1-17 1.0% 1.0
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 5.8% 5.7% 0.1% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.8 1.8 0.8 0.1 94.2 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 5.8 4.3 39.1 28.3 23.9 4.3
Lose Out 0.0%