Pre-tourney Rankings
Atlantic 10
2021-22


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
52 Davidson 50.0%   12   26 - 6 15 - 3 26 - 6 15 - 3 +9.6      +9.4 12 +0.2 168 63.2 316 +11.5 40 +12.5 1
63 Dayton 21.5%   23 - 10 14 - 4 23 - 10 14 - 4 +8.8      +3.7 79 +5.1 48 60.6 340 +7.9 68 +10.5 3
66 Virginia Commonwealth 34.7%   21 - 9 14 - 4 21 - 9 14 - 4 +8.5      -1.5 214 +9.9 6 71.0 98 +9.8 56 +12.0 2
67 Saint Louis 6.1%   22 - 11 12 - 6 22 - 11 12 - 6 +8.3      +4.8 54 +3.5 85 69.4 132 +7.9 69 +7.6 5
81 Richmond 100.0%   12   23 - 12 10 - 8 23 - 12 10 - 8 +6.9      +3.9 75 +3.0 98 67.6 195 +7.8 71 +4.7 6
82 St. Bonaventure 6.3%   20 - 9 12 - 5 20 - 9 12 - 5 +6.9      +3.3 89 +3.6 83 65.1 261 +9.0 62 +9.0 4
118 George Mason 0.0%   14 - 16 7 - 9 14 - 16 7 - 9 +3.2      +1.9 122 +1.3 131 64.2 290 +1.0 152 +1.9 8
137 Rhode Island 0.0%   14 - 16 5 - 12 14 - 16 5 - 12 +2.0      -2.7 252 +4.7 55 68.3 170 +0.2 167 -2.9 12
161 Saint Joseph's 0.0%   11 - 19 5 - 13 11 - 19 5 - 13 +0.3      -1.9 226 +2.2 116 70.4 112 -2.3 211 -3.0 13
171 Massachusetts 0.0%   15 - 17 7 - 11 15 - 17 7 - 11 -0.3      +6.0 35 -6.3 337 72.6 67 +0.5 162 -0.2 10
176 Fordham 0.0%   16 - 16 8 - 10 16 - 16 8 - 10 -0.5      -5.8 326 +5.3 45 69.0 149 +0.2 168 +0.7 9
212 George Washington 0.0%   12 - 18 8 - 9 12 - 18 8 - 9 -2.5      -1.9 227 -0.6 197 71.6 82 -1.9 203 +2.2 7
214 La Salle 0.0%   11 - 19 5 - 13 11 - 19 5 - 13 -2.6      -2.3 242 -0.2 179 68.4 165 -3.3 220 -2.5 11
267 Duquesne 0.0%   6 - 24 1 - 16 6 - 24 1 - 16 -6.0      -2.6 250 -3.4 272 66.0 240 -7.7 285 -12.6 14





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Davidson 1.0 100.0
Dayton 2.0 100.0
Virginia Commonwealth 2.0 100.0
Saint Louis 4.0 100.0
Richmond 6.0 100.0
St. Bonaventure 4.0 100.0
George Mason 9.0 100.0
Rhode Island 11.0 100.0
Saint Joseph's 11.0 100.0
Massachusetts 9.0 100.0
Fordham 7.0 100.0
George Washington 7.0 100.0
La Salle 11.0 100.0
Duquesne 14.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Davidson 15 - 3 100.0
Dayton 14 - 4 100.0
Virginia Commonwealth 14 - 4 100.0
Saint Louis 12 - 6 100.0
Richmond 10 - 8 100.0
St. Bonaventure 12 - 6 100.0
George Mason 7 - 11 100.0
Rhode Island 5 - 13 100.0
Saint Joseph's 5 - 13 100.0
Massachusetts 7 - 11 100.0
Fordham 8 - 10 100.0
George Washington 8 - 10 100.0
La Salle 5 - 13 100.0
Duquesne 1 - 17 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Davidson 100.0% 100.0
Dayton
Virginia Commonwealth
Saint Louis
Richmond
St. Bonaventure
George Mason
Rhode Island
Saint Joseph's
Massachusetts
Fordham
George Washington
La Salle
Duquesne


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Davidson 50.0% 0.0% 50.0% 12   0.0 0.3 1.9 7.5 27.2 12.9 0.1 50.0 50.0%
Dayton 21.5% 0.0% 21.5% 0.0 0.0 0.8 10.3 10.2 0.2 78.5 21.5%
Virginia Commonwealth 34.7% 0.0% 34.7% 0.0 0.0 0.8 5.1 20.5 8.3 0.0 65.3 34.7%
Saint Louis 6.1% 0.0% 6.1% 0.0 0.5 5.1 0.5 93.9 6.1%
Richmond 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 12   0.0 0.5 54.3 45.3
St. Bonaventure 6.3% 0.0% 6.3% 0.0 1.2 4.9 0.3 93.7 6.3%
George Mason 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Rhode Island 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Saint Joseph's 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Massachusetts 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Fordham 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
George Washington 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
La Salle 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Duquesne 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Davidson 50.0% 28.4% 35.6% 13.9% 4.0% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Dayton 21.5% 17.5% 11.8% 4.0% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Virginia Commonwealth 34.7% 19.7% 23.7% 8.0% 2.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Saint Louis 6.1% 6.0% 2.7% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Richmond 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 24.1% 7.0% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Bonaventure 6.3% 6.2% 2.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
George Mason 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rhode Island 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Saint Joseph's 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Massachusetts 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fordham 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
George Washington 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
La Salle 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Duquesne 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 2.2 19.6 47.5 27.8 4.9 0.2 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 1.8 38.8 47.1 13.1 1.0 0.0
2nd Round 43.4% 0.5 56.6 35.9 7.0 0.5 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 13.9% 0.1 86.1 13.3 0.6 0.0
Elite Eight 2.9% 0.0 97.1 2.9 0.0
Final Four 0.6% 0.0 99.4 0.6 0.0
Final Game 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0