Pre-tourney Rankings
Atlantic Sun
2021-22


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
136 Liberty 0.0%   19 - 11 12 - 4 19 - 11 12 - 4 +2.0      +1.1 143 +0.9 145 63.9 302 +0.6 161 +1.9 2
153 Jacksonville St. 100.0%   15   19 - 10 13 - 3 19 - 10 13 - 3 +0.8      +1.0 147 -0.2 180 64.6 273 +0.7 158 +3.4 1
184 Jacksonville 0.0%   17 - 10 11 - 5 17 - 10 11 - 5 -1.0      -1.7 224 +0.8 150 57.6 355 +0.3 165 +0.7 3
198 Bellarmine 0.0%   16 - 13 11 - 5 16 - 13 11 - 5 -1.8      +3.6 82 -5.4 318 59.0 350 +0.3 164 -0.3 4
205 Florida Gulf Coast 0.0%   19 - 11 10 - 6 19 - 11 10 - 6 -2.2      +0.8 155 -3.0 262 73.9 49 -0.5 183 -1.0 5
230 Kennesaw St. 0.0%   9 - 18 7 - 9 9 - 18 7 - 9 -3.5      +1.0 149 -4.5 295 66.1 235 -6.4 270 -5.4 7
262 Eastern Kentucky 0.0%   9 - 18 5 - 11 9 - 18 5 - 11 -5.8      -1.6 221 -4.2 286 76.3 24 -8.7 299 -9.4 11
266 North Florida 0.0%   8 - 20 7 - 9 8 - 20 7 - 9 -6.0      -4.0 281 -2.0 237 69.8 117 -6.3 268 -5.2 6
268 Lipscomb 0.0%   11 - 19 6 - 10 11 - 19 6 - 10 -6.1      -0.8 198 -5.2 316 72.5 68 -6.4 271 -7.8 9
294 Stetson 0.0%   7 - 19 5 - 11 7 - 19 5 - 11 -7.9      -4.0 280 -4.0 283 65.3 256 -8.7 298 -8.0 10
316 Central Arkansas 0.0%   9 - 20 7 - 9 9 - 20 7 - 9 -9.9      -2.9 257 -7.1 343 78.4 10 -6.5 273 -5.5 8
320 North Alabama 0.0%   5 - 21 2 - 14 5 - 21 2 - 14 -10.1      -8.5 350 -1.6 219 69.3 133 -13.0 341 -15.8 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Liberty 2.0 100.0
Jacksonville St. 1.0 100.0
Jacksonville 3.0 100.0
Bellarmine 3.0 100.0
Florida Gulf Coast 5.0 100.0
Kennesaw St. 6.0 100.0
Eastern Kentucky 10.0 100.0
North Florida 6.0 100.0
Lipscomb 9.0 100.0
Stetson 10.0 100.0
Central Arkansas 6.0 100.0
North Alabama 12.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
Liberty 12 - 4 100.0
Jacksonville St. 13 - 3 100.0
Jacksonville 11 - 5 100.0
Bellarmine 11 - 5 100.0
Florida Gulf Coast 10 - 6 100.0
Kennesaw St. 7 - 9 100.0
Eastern Kentucky 5 - 11 100.0
North Florida 7 - 9 100.0
Lipscomb 6 - 10 100.0
Stetson 5 - 11 100.0
Central Arkansas 7 - 9 100.0
North Alabama 2 - 14 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Liberty
Jacksonville St. 100.0% 100.0
Jacksonville
Bellarmine
Florida Gulf Coast
Kennesaw St.
Eastern Kentucky
North Florida
Lipscomb
Stetson
Central Arkansas
North Alabama


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Liberty 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Jacksonville St. 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 15   0.1 5.7 58.4 35.8
Jacksonville 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Bellarmine 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Florida Gulf Coast 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Kennesaw St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Eastern Kentucky 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
North Florida 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Lipscomb 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Stetson 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Central Arkansas 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
North Alabama 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Liberty 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville St. 100.0% 5.1% 97.7% 4.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bellarmine 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Gulf Coast 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kennesaw St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Kentucky 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Florida 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lipscomb 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stetson 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Arkansas 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Alabama 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 97.7% 1.0 2.3 97.7
2nd Round 4.0% 0.0 96.0 4.0
Sweet Sixteen 0.6% 0.0 99.4 0.6
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0