Pre-tourney Rankings
Missouri Valley
2021-22


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
31 Loyola Chicago 100.0%   10   24 - 7 13 - 5 24 - 7 13 - 5 +11.6      +4.6 60 +7.0 22 63.3 313 +11.6 39 +8.0 4
75 Missouri St. 0.3%   22 - 10 13 - 5 22 - 10 13 - 5 +7.9      +6.9 26 +1.0 142 68.0 186 +6.4 89 +8.6 3
87 Drake 0.2%   22 - 10 13 - 5 22 - 10 13 - 5 +6.4      +3.5 85 +2.9 103 65.7 247 +7.5 76 +8.8 2
95 Northern Iowa 0.1%   18 - 11 14 - 4 18 - 11 14 - 4 +5.7      +5.1 48 +0.6 155 68.4 167 +6.4 90 +10.8 1
98 Bradley 0.0%   16 - 14 11 - 7 16 - 14 11 - 7 +5.5      +1.5 135 +4.1 70 68.1 181 +2.7 129 +5.6 5
124 Southern Illinois 0.0%   15 - 15 9 - 9 15 - 15 9 - 9 +2.9      0.0 179 +2.9 104 58.9 351 +1.1 151 +2.8 6
178 Illinois St. 0.0%   11 - 20 5 - 13 11 - 20 5 - 13 -0.6      +1.3 137 -1.9 234 69.5 129 -3.6 224 -3.3 8
185 Valparaiso 0.0%   12 - 18 6 - 12 12 - 18 6 - 12 -1.0      +0.3 172 -1.3 213 64.3 282 -1.8 200 -1.4 7
223 Indiana St. 0.0%   8 - 20 4 - 14 8 - 20 4 - 14 -3.0      -3.4 268 +0.4 161 72.7 64 -4.2 231 -4.9 9
302 Evansville 0.0%   5 - 24 2 - 16 5 - 24 2 - 16 -8.5      -6.1 328 -2.4 242 61.9 335 -9.0 304 -8.8 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Loyola Chicago 2.0 100.0
Missouri St. 2.0 100.0
Drake 2.0 100.0
Northern Iowa 1.0 100.0
Bradley 5.0 100.0
Southern Illinois 6.0 100.0
Illinois St. 8.0 100.0
Valparaiso 7.0 100.0
Indiana St. 9.0 100.0
Evansville 10.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Loyola Chicago 13 - 5 100.0
Missouri St. 13 - 5 100.0
Drake 13 - 5 100.0
Northern Iowa 14 - 4 100.0
Bradley 11 - 7 100.0
Southern Illinois 9 - 9 100.0
Illinois St. 5 - 13 100.0
Valparaiso 6 - 12 100.0
Indiana St. 4 - 14 100.0
Evansville 2 - 16 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Loyola Chicago
Missouri St.
Drake
Northern Iowa 100.0% 100.0
Bradley
Southern Illinois
Illinois St.
Valparaiso
Indiana St.
Evansville


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Loyola Chicago 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 10   0.0 0.2 0.8 6.1 17.6 42.7 30.7 1.8
Missouri St. 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0 0.2 0.0 99.7 0.3%
Drake 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0 0.2 0.0 99.8 0.2%
Northern Iowa 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.0 99.9 0.1%
Bradley 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Southern Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Illinois St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Valparaiso 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Indiana St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Evansville 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Loyola Chicago 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 48.8% 14.7% 5.6% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1%
Missouri St. 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Drake 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Iowa 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bradley 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Valparaiso 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Indiana St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Evansville 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.4 0.6
1st Round 100.0% 1.0 99.8 0.2
2nd Round 48.9% 0.5 51.1 48.8 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 14.7% 0.1 85.3 14.7 0.0
Elite Eight 5.6% 0.1 94.4 5.6 0.0
Final Four 1.7% 0.0 98.3 1.7
Final Game 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5
Champion 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1