Pre-tourney Rankings
Pac-12
2021-22


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
2 Arizona 100.0%   1   31 - 3 18 - 2 31 - 3 18 - 2 +19.9      +12.3 4 +7.6 16 79.2 8 +22.0 1 +20.6 1
8 UCLA 100.0%   3   25 - 7 15 - 5 25 - 7 15 - 5 +17.4      +9.4 13 +8.0 14 65.2 260 +16.2 15 +14.3 2
41 USC 96.0%   7   26 - 7 14 - 6 26 - 7 14 - 6 +10.6      +5.4 45 +5.2 47 66.3 228 +14.8 19 +13.7 3
51 Washington St. 0.2%   19 - 14 11 - 9 19 - 14 11 - 9 +9.6      +4.0 74 +5.6 40 66.4 221 +6.5 88 +8.1 8
57 Colorado 10.4%   21 - 11 11 - 8 21 - 11 11 - 8 +9.4      +3.6 83 +5.8 39 68.2 176 +10.0 54 +10.4 4
70 Oregon 3.6%   18 - 14 11 - 9 18 - 14 11 - 9 +8.2      +5.0 51 +3.2 92 69.1 144 +8.1 66 +8.9 6
83 Arizona St. 0.0%   14 - 17 10 - 10 14 - 17 10 - 10 +6.9      -0.4 189 +7.3 20 68.7 160 +6.7 85 +8.8 7
97 Stanford 0.0%   16 - 16 8 - 11 16 - 16 8 - 11 +5.6      +2.1 118 +3.5 86 65.9 243 +7.4 78 +6.5 9
101 Washington 0.0%   17 - 15 11 - 9 17 - 15 11 - 9 +5.2      +1.8 124 +3.3 89 73.3 58 +6.1 93 +9.6 5
114 Utah 0.0%   11 - 20 4 - 16 11 - 20 4 - 16 +3.5      +3.3 88 +0.2 167 66.8 212 +1.4 145 -0.8 11
122 California 0.0%   12 - 20 5 - 15 12 - 20 5 - 15 +3.0      -1.4 212 +4.4 61 62.4 326 +1.9 140 +1.0 10
204 Oregon St. 0.0%   3 - 28 1 - 19 3 - 28 1 - 19 -1.9      +2.6 103 -4.5 297 67.1 207 -8.3 293 -8.5 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Arizona 1.0 100.0
UCLA 2.0 100.0
USC 3.0 100.0
Washington St. 4.0 100.0
Colorado 4.0 100.0
Oregon 4.0 100.0
Arizona St. 8.0 100.0
Stanford 9.0 100.0
Washington 4.0 100.0
Utah 11.0 100.0
California 10.0 100.0
Oregon St. 12.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Arizona 18 - 2 100.0
UCLA 15 - 5 100.0
USC 14 - 6 100.0
Washington St. 11 - 9 100.0
Colorado 11 - 9 100.0
Oregon 11 - 9 100.0
Arizona St. 10 - 10 100.0
Stanford 8 - 12 100.0
Washington 11 - 9 100.0
Utah 4 - 16 100.0
California 5 - 15 100.0
Oregon St. 1 - 19 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Arizona 100.0% 100.0
UCLA
USC
Washington St.
Colorado
Oregon
Arizona St.
Stanford
Washington
Utah
California
Oregon St.


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Arizona 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 1   78.1 21.5 0.4
UCLA 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 3   1.1 8.8 44.3 37.8 7.6 0.4 0.0 100.0%
USC 96.0% 0.0% 96.0% 7   0.0 1.9 9.0 26.0 30.9 21.4 6.0 0.6 0.0 4.0 96.0%
Washington St. 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0 0.2 0.0 99.8 0.2%
Colorado 10.4% 0.0% 10.4% 0.0 0.0 1.2 8.5 0.7 89.6 10.4%
Oregon 3.6% 0.0% 3.6% 0.3 3.0 0.3 96.4 3.6%
Arizona St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Stanford 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Washington 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Utah 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
California 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Oregon St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Arizona 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 97.8% 78.7% 56.0% 35.8% 20.8% 11.0%
UCLA 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 90.6% 62.9% 33.2% 17.4% 8.5% 3.8%
USC 96.0% 0.1% 95.9% 46.5% 11.3% 4.0% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Washington St. 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Colorado 10.4% 10.2% 5.1% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oregon 3.6% 3.6% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arizona St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stanford 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Washington 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Utah 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
California 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oregon St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 3.1 3.4 83.2 13.1 0.3
1st Round 100.0% 3.0 3.7 89.8 6.4 0.0
2nd Round 99.9% 2.4 0.1 6.0 51.4 41.5 0.9
Sweet Sixteen 93.4% 1.5 6.6 38.4 49.9 5.1 0.0
Elite Eight 73.7% 0.9 26.3 54.6 18.5 0.6 0.0
Final Four 49.2% 0.5 50.8 44.0 5.2 0.0
Final Game 28.6% 0.3 71.4 27.6 1.0
Champion 14.8% 0.1 85.2 14.8