Pre-tourney Rankings
West Coast
2021-22


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
1 Gonzaga 100.0%   1   26 - 3 13 - 1 26 - 3 13 - 1 +23.9      +13.4 2 +10.5 4 80.9 3 +20.6 2 +22.1 1
20 St. Mary's 99.9%   5   24 - 7 12 - 3 24 - 7 12 - 3 +13.4      +4.4 65 +9.0 9 61.4 338 +15.1 17 +17.4 2
21 San Francisco 97.3%   9   23 - 9 10 - 6 23 - 9 10 - 6 +12.8      +5.5 44 +7.3 19 71.0 96 +11.7 37 +9.0 4
61 BYU 41.4%   20 - 10 9 - 6 20 - 10 9 - 6 +8.9      +4.7 58 +4.2 66 69.8 121 +10.1 52 +8.5 5
71 Santa Clara 0.7%   21 - 11 10 - 5 21 - 11 10 - 5 +8.2      +6.9 25 +1.3 132 76.1 26 +7.5 77 +11.1 3
169 Portland 0.0%   16 - 14 7 - 7 16 - 14 7 - 7 -0.3      +0.2 173 -0.5 191 71.6 83 +0.7 155 +3.1 6
183 Loyola Marymount 0.0%   10 - 18 3 - 12 10 - 18 3 - 12 -1.0      +2.6 107 -3.5 273 65.4 255 -1.3 191 -6.7 9
208 San Diego 0.0%   13 - 16 7 - 9 13 - 16 7 - 9 -2.3      -4.1 284 +1.7 126 65.6 248 -0.1 176 +2.4 7
265 Pepperdine 0.0%   6 - 25 1 - 15 6 - 25 1 - 15 -6.0      -3.5 269 -2.5 245 74.7 39 -8.2 292 -13.3 10
277 Pacific 0.0%   6 - 22 3 - 11 6 - 22 3 - 11 -6.6      -5.1 308 -1.5 215 69.5 131 -8.5 295 -6.2 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Gonzaga 1.0 100.0
St. Mary's 2.0 100.0
San Francisco 3.0 100.0
BYU 5.0 100.0
Santa Clara 3.0 100.0
Portland 6.0 100.0
Loyola Marymount 8.0 100.0
San Diego 6.0 100.0
Pepperdine 10.0 100.0
Pacific 8.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
Gonzaga 13 - 3 100.0
St. Mary's 12 - 4 100.0
San Francisco 10 - 6 100.0
BYU 9 - 7 100.0
Santa Clara 10 - 6 100.0
Portland 7 - 9 100.0
Loyola Marymount 3 - 13 100.0
San Diego 7 - 9 100.0
Pepperdine 1 - 15 100.0
Pacific 3 - 13 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Gonzaga 100.0% 100.0
St. Mary's
San Francisco
BYU
Santa Clara
Portland
Loyola Marymount
San Diego
Pepperdine
Pacific


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Gonzaga 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 1   79.9 19.8 0.3
St. Mary's 99.9% 0.0% 99.9% 5   0.2 1.4 13.6 39.3 33.9 9.9 1.6 0.1 0.1 99.9%
San Francisco 97.3% 0.0% 97.3% 9   0.0 0.7 4.5 15.6 29.8 31.3 14.1 1.4 2.7 97.3%
BYU 41.4% 0.0% 41.4% 0.0 0.3 3.3 25.5 12.3 0.1 58.6 41.4%
Santa Clara 0.7% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0 0.6 0.1 99.3 0.7%
Portland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Loyola Marymount 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
San Diego 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Pepperdine 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Pacific 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Gonzaga 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 99.1% 88.8% 73.7% 57.4% 43.4% 32.2%
St. Mary's 99.9% 0.0% 99.9% 73.8% 38.2% 13.5% 5.2% 1.7% 0.6%
San Francisco 97.3% 0.1% 97.2% 55.0% 16.2% 7.1% 2.6% 0.8% 0.2%
BYU 41.4% 28.7% 25.9% 9.0% 2.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Santa Clara 0.7% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Portland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Marymount 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Diego 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pepperdine 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pacific 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 3.4 1.5 58.0 40.3 0.2
1st Round 100.0% 3.2 2.0 72.8 25.1 0.1
2nd Round 99.9% 2.4 0.1 11.0 44.1 41.4 3.4 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 95.0% 1.5 5.0 50.5 38.4 6.0 0.1
Elite Eight 80.4% 0.9 19.6 66.4 13.4 0.6
Final Four 61.4% 0.7 38.6 57.5 3.8 0.0
Final Game 45.3% 0.5 54.7 44.6 0.7
Champion 33.0% 0.3 67.0 33.0