Pre-tourney Rankings
Fresno St.
Mountain West
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+6.8#84
Expected Predictive Rating+5.4#101
Pace56.7#356
Improvement-2.1#263

Offense
Total Offense+0.8#156
First Shot+0.3#170
After Offensive Rebound+0.5#136
Layup/Dunks-1.6#241
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#97
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#191
Freethrows+0.8#111
Improvement-2.0#277

Defense
Total Defense+6.0#35
First Shot+5.8#30
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#160
Layups/Dunks+5.0#22
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#259
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#181
Freethrows+1.9#54
Improvement-0.1#197
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% n/a n/a
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% n/a n/a
Conference Champion 0.0% n/a n/a
Last Place in Conference 0.0% n/a n/a
First Four0.0% n/a n/a
First Round0.0% n/a n/a
Second Round0.0% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen0.0% n/a n/a
Elite Eight0.0% n/a n/a
Final Four0.0% n/a n/a
Championship Game0.0% n/a n/a
National Champion0.0% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 50 - 5
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 8
Quad 23 - 33 - 11
Quad 35 - 28 - 13
Quad 410 - 018 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2021 241   LIU Brooklyn W 84-60 89%     1 - 0 +17.3 +2.3 +13.3
  Nov 15, 2021 321   Idaho W 69-62 95%     2 - 0 -5.3 -7.8 +2.9
  Nov 22, 2021 265   Pepperdine W 70-63 88%     3 - 0 +1.0 +0.5 +1.1
  Nov 24, 2021 71   Santa Clara W 59-52 45%     4 - 0 +15.2 -4.1 +20.3
  Nov 28, 2021 122   @ California L 57-65 56%     4 - 1 -2.8 -5.2 +1.7
  Dec 01, 2021 208   San Diego W 63-43 86%     5 - 1 +15.5 +3.8 +15.8
  Dec 04, 2021 322   Cal St. Northridge W 61-43 95%     6 - 1 +5.7 -7.1 +16.1
  Dec 08, 2021 21   @ San Francisco L 63-71 22%     6 - 2 +7.0 +4.3 +2.0
  Dec 11, 2021 139   UC Irvine W 63-55 75%     7 - 2 +7.7 -2.8 +11.1
  Dec 17, 2021 297   Cal Poly W 83-48 94%     8 - 2 +24.7 +20.0 +9.9
  Dec 21, 2021 114   @ Utah L 50-55 54%     8 - 3 +0.8 -10.1 +9.7
  Dec 23, 2021 170   @ Weber St. W 69-43 68%     9 - 3 +27.9 +7.1 +24.8
  Dec 28, 2021 37   @ Boise St. L 55-65 27%     9 - 4 0 - 1 +3.1 +0.2 +1.1
  Jan 11, 2022 275   San Jose St. W 79-59 92%     10 - 4 1 - 1 +11.3 +14.6 +0.1
  Jan 14, 2022 86   @ UNLV W 73-68 43%     11 - 4 2 - 1 +13.7 +5.4 +8.4
  Jan 18, 2022 58   Utah St. W 61-54 49%     12 - 4 3 - 1 +14.0 -1.7 +16.5
  Jan 21, 2022 110   @ Nevada L 73-77 53%     12 - 5 3 - 2 +2.1 +5.8 -3.9
  Jan 25, 2022 155   @ New Mexico W 65-60 65%     13 - 5 4 - 2 +7.9 -0.3 +8.7
  Jan 28, 2022 37   Boise St. L 63-68 OT 43%     13 - 6 4 - 3 +3.7 -0.9 +4.3
  Feb 01, 2022 275   @ San Jose St. W 73-43 85%     14 - 6 5 - 3 +25.7 +15.4 +17.8
  Feb 04, 2022 110   Nevada W 73-56 69%     15 - 6 6 - 3 +18.7 +10.1 +10.9
  Feb 06, 2022 74   Wyoming L 59-61 54%     15 - 7 6 - 4 +3.8 -1.5 +5.0
  Feb 11, 2022 44   @ Colorado St. L 50-65 29%     15 - 8 6 - 5 -2.3 -8.1 +2.6
  Feb 16, 2022 86   UNLV L 57-60 60%     15 - 9 6 - 6 +1.3 -5.9 +6.7
  Feb 19, 2022 26   San Diego St. L 44-61 38%     15 - 10 6 - 7 -7.2 -6.5 -5.2
  Feb 22, 2022 249   @ Air Force W 65-40 81%     16 - 10 7 - 7 +22.3 +7.7 +20.3
  Feb 28, 2022 155   New Mexico W 71-68 79%     17 - 10 8 - 7 +1.4 -1.1 +2.7
  Mar 03, 2022 26   @ San Diego St. L 64-65 2OT 24%     17 - 11 8 - 8 +13.3 -2.7 +16.1
  Mar 05, 2022 74   @ Wyoming L 64-68 OT 37%     17 - 12 8 - 9 +6.3 +0.2 +5.9
  Mar 09, 2022 275   San Jose St. W 69-67 OT 89%     18 - 12 -4.5 -5.3 +0.9
  Mar 10, 2022 26   San Diego St. L 46-53 31%     18 - 13 +5.0 -7.4 +11.2
Projected Record 18 - 13 8 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 100.0 100.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 100.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10 100.0% 100.0
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%