Pre-tourney Rankings
San Diego St.
Mountain West
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+12.0#26
Expected Predictive Rating+12.4#32
Pace64.5#275
Improvement+2.3#90

Offense
Total Offense+0.5#166
First Shot-0.9#210
After Offensive Rebound+1.4#74
Layup/Dunks+0.5#148
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#83
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.1#308
Freethrows+1.2#86
Improvement+1.4#102

Defense
Total Defense+11.6#3
First Shot+11.2#3
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#146
Layups/Dunks+5.5#13
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#221
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#37
Freethrows+2.5#31
Improvement+0.9#138
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0.6% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 34.2% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 98.8% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 98.8% n/a n/a
Average Seed 6.8 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% n/a n/a
Conference Champion 0.0% n/a n/a
Last Place in Conference 0.0% n/a n/a
First Four0.0% n/a n/a
First Round98.8% n/a n/a
Second Round55.9% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen18.3% n/a n/a
Elite Eight6.9% n/a n/a
Final Four2.3% n/a n/a
Championship Game0.7% n/a n/a
National Champion0.2% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b4 - 55 - 8
Quad 25 - 010 - 8
Quad 37 - 017 - 8
Quad 46 - 023 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 173   UC Riverside W 66-53 91%     1 - 0 +10.5 -4.5 +15.5
  Nov 12, 2021 61   @ BYU L 60-66 54%     1 - 1 +5.1 -4.8 +9.6
  Nov 18, 2021 83   Arizona St. W 65-63 76%     2 - 1 +6.7 +0.9 +5.9
  Nov 20, 2021 227   Texas Arlington W 68-62 94%     3 - 1 +0.5 -3.1 +3.8
  Nov 25, 2021 150   Georgetown W 73-56 85%     4 - 1 +18.1 +0.7 +17.6
  Nov 26, 2021 41   USC L 43-58 56%     4 - 2 -4.4 -15.6 +8.1
  Nov 30, 2021 148   Long Beach St. W 72-47 89%     5 - 2 +23.9 -4.5 +27.3
  Dec 04, 2021 24   @ Michigan L 58-72 41%     5 - 3 +0.4 -8.7 +8.7
  Dec 08, 2021 151   Cal St. Fullerton W 66-56 89%     6 - 3 +8.8 -3.5 +12.9
  Dec 17, 2021 20   St. Mary's W 63-53 45%     7 - 3 +23.4 +6.0 +18.4
  Dec 22, 2021 256   UC San Diego W 78-57 95%     8 - 3 +13.6 +4.6 +10.3
  Jan 01, 2022 86   @ UNLV W 62-55 63%     9 - 3 1 - 0 +15.7 -5.0 +20.8
  Jan 08, 2022 44   Colorado St. W 79-49 64%     10 - 3 2 - 0 +38.3 +11.7 +27.9
  Jan 22, 2022 37   Boise St. L 37-42 63%     10 - 4 2 - 1 +3.7 -24.6 +27.6
  Jan 24, 2022 86   UNLV W 80-55 77%     11 - 4 3 - 1 +29.3 +7.4 +21.2
  Jan 26, 2022 58   @ Utah St. L 57-75 52%     11 - 5 3 - 2 -6.6 -7.6 +0.3
  Jan 31, 2022 155   New Mexico W 72-47 89%     12 - 5 4 - 2 +23.4 -3.8 +27.1
  Feb 04, 2022 44   @ Colorado St. L 57-58 47%     12 - 6 4 - 3 +11.7 -10.3 +21.9
  Feb 06, 2022 110   Nevada W 65-63 83%     13 - 6 5 - 3 +3.7 -0.3 +4.2
  Feb 09, 2022 275   @ San Jose St. W 72-62 93%     14 - 6 6 - 3 +5.7 -2.1 +8.0
  Feb 12, 2022 249   Air Force W 76-64 95%     15 - 6 7 - 3 +4.9 +10.2 -3.9
  Feb 15, 2022 58   Utah St. W 75-56 69%     16 - 6 8 - 3 +26.0 +17.0 +11.9
  Feb 19, 2022 84   @ Fresno St. W 61-44 62%     17 - 6 9 - 3 +26.0 +11.7 +18.9
  Feb 22, 2022 37   @ Boise St. L 57-58 46%     17 - 7 9 - 4 +12.1 +1.5 +10.4
  Feb 25, 2022 275   San Jose St. W 77-52 96%     18 - 7 10 - 4 +16.3 +3.7 +14.1
  Feb 28, 2022 74   @ Wyoming W 73-66 57%     19 - 7 11 - 4 +17.3 +9.9 +7.8
  Mar 03, 2022 84   Fresno St. W 65-64 2OT 76%     20 - 7 12 - 4 +5.6 -9.6 +15.1
  Mar 05, 2022 110   @ Nevada W 79-78 72%     21 - 7 13 - 4 +7.1 +5.7 +1.3
  Mar 10, 2022 84   Fresno St. W 53-46 69%     22 - 7 +13.8 -4.7 +19.7
  Mar 11, 2022 44   Colorado St. W 63-58 56%     23 - 7 +15.5 +5.5 +10.9
  Mar 12, 2022 37   Boise St. L 52-53 54%     23 - 8 +9.9 -5.2 +14.9
Projected Record 23 - 8 13 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 100.0 100.0 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 100.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 100.0% 98.8% 98.8% 6.8 0.0 0.6 8.3 25.3 41.0 19.1 4.2 0.3 0.0 1.2 98.8%
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 98.8% 0.0% 98.8% 6.8 0.0 0.6 8.3 25.3 41.0 19.1 4.2 0.3 0.0 1.2 98.8%