Pre-tourney Rankings
Troy
Sun Belt
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating-1.5#193
Expected Predictive Rating+1.1#149
Pace68.1#183
Improvement+0.6#154

Offense
Total Offense-3.3#265
First Shot-4.1#292
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#110
Layup/Dunks-1.4#233
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#193
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#281
Freethrows+0.6#121
Improvement+0.8#145

Defense
Total Defense+1.8#123
First Shot+2.7#88
After Offensive Rebounds-0.9#262
Layups/Dunks+3.5#49
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#268
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#133
Freethrows-0.8#255
Improvement-0.1#194
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% n/a n/a
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% n/a n/a
Conference Champion 0.0% n/a n/a
Last Place in Conference 0.0% n/a n/a
First Four0.0% n/a n/a
First Round0.0% n/a n/a
Second Round0.0% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen0.0% n/a n/a
Elite Eight0.0% n/a n/a
Final Four0.0% n/a n/a
Championship Game0.0% n/a n/a
National Champion0.0% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 22 - 12 - 2
Quad 36 - 68 - 8
Quad 49 - 317 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 13, 2021 108   @ Butler L 59-70 21%     0 - 1 -4.1 -5.7 +1.0
  Nov 16, 2021 153   Jacksonville St. W 69-65 3OT 50%     1 - 1 +2.6 -20.8 +22.5
  Nov 19, 2021 345   North Dakota L 72-74 86%     1 - 2 -15.0 -7.8 -7.2
  Nov 20, 2021 313   Tennessee Martin W 80-67 78%     2 - 2 +3.3 -2.3 +4.8
  Nov 22, 2021 126   @ Florida Atlantic W 83-78 OT 27%     3 - 2 +9.9 +3.4 +6.0
  Nov 28, 2021 47   @ Florida L 45-84 11%     3 - 3 -26.8 -24.3 -1.4
  Dec 05, 2021 286   SE Louisiana L 68-72 78%     3 - 4 -13.7 -10.0 -3.8
  Dec 11, 2021 272   @ Tennessee Tech W 75-72 60%     4 - 4 -1.1 -2.6 +1.5
  Dec 14, 2021 332   Alabama A&M W 66-57 86%     5 - 4 -4.1 -4.6 +0.8
  Dec 22, 2021 199   @ Mercer W 69-65 43%     6 - 4 +4.4 -4.6 +9.1
  Dec 30, 2021 144   @ Texas St. W 78-63 31%     7 - 4 1 - 0 +18.6 +12.9 +6.9
  Jan 01, 2022 227   @ Texas Arlington L 57-62 49%     7 - 5 1 - 1 -6.1 -11.0 +4.7
  Jan 06, 2022 163   Coastal Carolina W 69-59 52%     8 - 5 2 - 1 +7.9 -2.5 +10.8
  Jan 08, 2022 159   Appalachian St. W 68-53 52%     9 - 5 3 - 1 +13.1 +5.1 +10.1
  Jan 20, 2022 270   @ Louisiana Monroe W 73-65 59%     10 - 5 4 - 1 +4.1 -0.9 +5.3
  Jan 22, 2022 188   @ Louisiana L 59-69 40%     10 - 6 4 - 2 -8.9 -13.0 +4.0
  Jan 27, 2022 152   @ South Alabama L 63-82 33%     10 - 7 4 - 3 -15.9 -10.1 -5.2
  Jan 29, 2022 152   South Alabama W 77-68 49%     11 - 7 5 - 3 +7.7 +4.7 +3.1
  Feb 03, 2022 146   @ Georgia St. W 67-63 32%     12 - 7 6 - 3 +7.4 -2.5 +9.9
  Feb 05, 2022 258   @ Georgia Southern W 61-52 57%     13 - 7 7 - 3 +5.9 -5.1 +11.8
  Feb 10, 2022 191   Arkansas St. W 79-77 58%     14 - 7 8 - 3 -1.6 +6.0 -7.6
  Feb 12, 2022 317   Arkansas Little Rock L 62-66 84%     14 - 8 8 - 4 -16.2 -9.4 -7.4
  Feb 17, 2022 159   @ Appalachian St. W 67-61 35%     15 - 8 9 - 4 +8.6 +1.8 +7.2
  Feb 19, 2022 163   @ Coastal Carolina L 63-73 36%     15 - 9 9 - 5 -7.6 -10.2 +2.8
  Feb 23, 2022 227   Texas Arlington W 59-53 65%     16 - 9 10 - 5 +0.5 -9.3 +10.3
  Feb 25, 2022 144   Texas St. L 61-66 48%     16 - 10 10 - 6 -5.9 -0.8 -6.0
  Mar 05, 2022 317   Arkansas Little Rock W 69-62 79%     17 - 10 -3.0 +1.1 -2.9
  Mar 06, 2022 188   Louisiana L 57-66 49%     17 - 11 -10.2 -14.6 +4.2
Projected Record 17 - 11 10 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 100.0 100.0 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 100.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 100.0% 100.0
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%