Preseason Rankings
Mountain West
2021-22


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
42 San Diego St. 48.5%   11   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 8 13 - 5 +11.0      +4.1 62 +6.9 22 63.9 305 0.0 1 0.0 1
51 Colorado St. 38.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 8 12 - 6 +9.6      +5.8 35 +3.8 71 70.2 149 0.0 1 0.0 1
63 Nevada 36.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 10 12 - 6 +8.7      +5.3 45 +3.4 83 73.4 81 0.0 1 0.0 1
72 Utah St. 27.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 10 12 - 6 +7.7      +2.4 105 +5.3 51 70.9 130 0.0 1 0.0 1
76 Boise St. 26.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 10 11 - 7 +7.1      +3.5 74 +3.6 77 70.8 134 0.0 1 0.0 1
138 Fresno St. 6.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 14 9 - 9 +2.0      +1.1 142 +0.8 144 63.5 313 0.0 1 0.0 1
145 UNLV 6.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 15 9 - 9 +1.7      +1.6 130 +0.1 171 64.8 292 0.0 1 0.0 1
156 Wyoming 3.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 14 8 - 10 +0.6      +1.5 133 -1.0 204 71.7 108 0.0 1 0.0 1
240 New Mexico 0.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 19 6 - 12 -4.3      -2.8 257 -1.6 229 67.0 237 0.0 1 0.0 1
306 Air Force 0.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 20 4 - 14 -8.0      -3.8 289 -4.2 301 59.1 353 0.0 1 0.0 1
322 San Jose St. 0.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 6 - 23 3 - 15 -9.5      -3.6 284 -5.9 332 78.3 22 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
San Diego St. 2.9 33.5 20.6 14.7 11.0 7.9 5.5 3.5 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.0
Colorado St. 3.3 26.3 19.7 15.8 12.4 9.4 6.9 4.6 2.9 1.3 0.5 0.1
Nevada 3.7 20.2 17.9 15.7 13.4 10.9 8.7 6.3 3.9 2.0 0.8 0.2
Utah St. 3.8 17.6 16.9 16.0 14.4 11.9 9.5 6.5 3.9 2.1 0.9 0.2
Boise St. 4.3 13.9 14.5 14.2 13.4 12.5 11.0 8.9 6.3 3.5 1.4 0.4
Fresno St. 5.7 4.3 7.3 9.5 11.7 13.1 14.0 13.5 11.9 8.4 4.7 1.8
UNLV 6.0 3.5 5.8 8.1 10.6 12.6 14.5 15.1 13.0 9.4 5.1 2.1
Wyoming 6.4 2.8 4.7 6.9 9.0 11.6 13.3 15.1 14.8 11.6 7.0 3.2
New Mexico 8.1 0.4 1.0 1.9 3.5 5.6 8.2 11.8 16.6 21.2 18.3 11.2
Air Force 9.2 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 2.4 4.2 7.0 11.5 19.1 27.0 26.6
San Jose St. 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.4 2.7 4.9 8.9 16.5 27.8 36.7




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
San Diego St. 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.9 3.4 4.9 6.8 9.0 11.2 12.8 13.6 12.6 11.1 7.5 3.1
Colorado St. 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.7 2.8 4.3 6.2 8.4 10.1 12.1 12.6 12.9 11.3 8.8 5.2 2.0
Nevada 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.4 2.5 3.9 5.7 7.6 9.6 11.3 12.3 12.2 11.4 9.3 6.6 3.6 1.3
Utah St. 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.6 4.2 6.3 8.3 10.2 11.9 12.4 12.5 10.7 8.5 5.6 3.0 1.0
Boise St. 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.5 4.1 6.0 7.9 9.5 10.9 11.3 11.5 10.7 8.9 6.8 4.4 2.2 0.7
Fresno St. 9 - 9 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.4 4.1 6.1 8.3 10.2 11.0 11.7 11.4 10.4 8.2 6.2 4.4 2.4 1.2 0.5 0.1
UNLV 9 - 9 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.8 4.5 7.0 9.3 11.0 12.2 11.9 11.1 9.2 7.5 5.2 3.2 1.8 0.9 0.3 0.1
Wyoming 8 - 10 0.2 0.8 2.1 4.0 6.1 8.4 10.4 11.5 12.0 11.1 9.8 8.2 6.0 4.3 2.6 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.1
New Mexico 6 - 12 1.4 4.1 7.5 11.0 12.8 13.4 12.7 10.8 8.7 6.6 4.5 3.0 1.8 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Air Force 4 - 14 5.3 11.0 14.3 15.7 14.6 11.9 9.5 6.7 4.7 2.9 1.7 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
San Jose St. 3 - 15 8.3 14.8 17.6 16.6 14.0 10.3 7.1 4.8 2.9 1.8 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
San Diego St. 33.5% 23.8 7.8 1.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Colorado St. 26.3% 17.8 6.8 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Nevada 20.2% 13.4 5.3 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
Utah St. 17.6% 11.2 4.9 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
Boise St. 13.9% 8.7 4.1 1.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Fresno St. 4.3% 2.3 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
UNLV 3.5% 1.9 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
Wyoming 2.8% 1.4 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
New Mexico 0.4% 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Air Force 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
San Jose St. 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
San Diego St. 48.5% 26.3% 22.2% 11   1.4 2.1 2.6 3.4 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.7 4.4 5.4 6.8 6.1 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 51.5 30.1%
Colorado St. 38.5% 20.3% 18.3% 0.8 1.3 1.7 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.9 3.5 4.3 6.2 5.8 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 61.5 22.9%
Nevada 36.2% 17.0% 19.2% 0.8 1.2 1.5 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.6 3.6 4.2 6.1 5.5 1.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 63.8 23.2%
Utah St. 27.9% 13.8% 14.0% 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.7 3.6 4.8 5.0 1.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 72.1 16.3%
Boise St. 26.9% 12.4% 14.4% 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.8 2.7 3.2 4.8 5.1 1.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 73.1 16.5%
Fresno St. 6.0% 3.7% 2.3% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.5 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.1 94.0 2.4%
UNLV 6.1% 3.4% 2.7% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 93.9 2.8%
Wyoming 3.3% 2.3% 1.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 96.7 1.0%
New Mexico 0.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 99.3 0.1%
Air Force 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8 0.0%
San Jose St. 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
San Diego St. 48.5% 4.5% 46.4% 27.0% 12.4% 5.6% 2.5% 1.1% 0.5%
Colorado St. 38.5% 4.5% 36.4% 19.6% 8.6% 3.8% 1.7% 0.7% 0.3%
Nevada 36.2% 4.9% 33.7% 17.5% 7.4% 3.2% 1.3% 0.6% 0.2%
Utah St. 27.9% 3.9% 25.9% 12.7% 4.9% 2.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1%
Boise St. 26.9% 4.2% 24.7% 11.8% 4.7% 1.9% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1%
Fresno St. 6.0% 0.9% 5.5% 1.9% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNLV 6.1% 1.1% 5.5% 1.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wyoming 3.3% 0.4% 3.2% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
New Mexico 0.7% 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Air Force 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Jose St. 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.9 32.9 44.2 19.0 3.7 0.3 0.0
1st Round 99.9% 1.8 0.1 38.7 43.0 15.5 2.5 0.1 0.0
2nd Round 68.7% 0.9 31.3 47.0 18.7 2.8 0.2 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 35.1% 0.4 64.9 31.0 3.9 0.2 0.0
Elite Eight 16.2% 0.2 83.8 15.4 0.8 0.0
Final Four 7.0% 0.1 93.0 6.8 0.1
Final Game 2.9% 0.0 97.1 2.9 0.0
Champion 1.2% 0.0 98.8 1.2