IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Utah St.
Mountain West
2021-22

Overall
Predictive Rating	+7.7	#72
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	70.9	#130
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+2.4	#105

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+5.3	#51

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.4%	0.4%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	1.0%	1.1%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	3.1%	3.5%	0.3%
Top 6 Seed	6.1%	6.8%	0.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid	27.9%	30.3%	8.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	16.3%	18.1%	3.5%
Average Seed	9.1	9.1	11.1

.500 or above	84.4%	87.8%	57.8%
.500 or above in Conference	84.2%	86.6%	65.6%
Conference Champion	17.6%	19.0%	6.2%
Last Place in Conference	0.5%	0.4%	1.8%

First Four	3.9%	4.2%	1.3%
First Round	25.9%	28.2%	8.3%
Second Round	12.7%	13.9%	2.9%
Sweet Sixteen	4.9%	5.5%	0.8%
Elite Eight	2.0%	2.2%	0.3%
Final Four	0.7%	0.8%	0.1%
Championship Game	0.3%	0.3%	0.0%
National Champion	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%

Next Game: UC Davis (Home) - 88.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 1b	1 - 2	1 - 4
Quad 2	3 - 3	4 - 7
Quad 3	6 - 2	10 - 10
Quad 4	10 - 1	19 - 11

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 09, 2021	208	UC Davis	W	79-66	89%
Nov 12, 2021	57	Richmond	L	71-73	44%
Nov 18, 2021	187	Penn	W	76-67	77%
Nov 27, 2021	224	Texas Arlington	W	78-64	89%
Dec 02, 2021	49	St. Mary's	W	66-65	52%
Dec 08, 2021	38	@ BYU	L	69-76	29%
Dec 11, 2021	298	New Orleans	W	87-69	93%
Dec 15, 2021	129	@ Weber St.	W	78-76	57%
Dec 18, 2021	39	Iowa	L	74-78	39%
Dec 21, 2021	220	Portland St.	W	80-66	87%
Dec 28, 2021	306	@ Air Force	W	72-59	85%
Jan 01, 2022	322	San Jose St.	W	87-67	95%
Jan 04, 2022	76	Boise St.	W	74-70	61%
Jan 08, 2022	240	@ New Mexico	W	74-65	76%
Jan 12, 2022	51	@ Colorado St.	L	70-75	35%
Jan 15, 2022	156	Wyoming	W	79-69	79%
Jan 18, 2022	138	@ Fresno St.	W	70-67	58%
Jan 26, 2022	42	San Diego St.	L	67-68	49%
Jan 29, 2022	63	@ Nevada	L	73-77	37%
Feb 01, 2022	306	Air Force	W	75-56	93%
Feb 05, 2022	145	UNLV	W	74-65	76%
Feb 08, 2022	156	@ Wyoming	W	76-72	63%
Feb 11, 2022	63	Nevada	W	76-74	56%
Feb 15, 2022	42	@ San Diego St.	L	64-70	31%
Feb 19, 2022	76	@ Boise St.	L	71-73	42%
Feb 22, 2022	240	New Mexico	W	77-62	88%
Feb 26, 2022	51	Colorado St.	W	73-72	53%
Mar 04, 2022	322	@ San Jose St.	W	84-70	87%
Projected Record						18 - 10	12 - 6

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Mountain West Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st													0.1	0.7	2.8	5.1	5.0	3.0	1.0		17.6	1st
2nd											0.0	0.2	1.5	5.2	6.1	3.3	0.6				16.9	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.2	2.2	5.9	5.7	1.8	0.1					16.0	3rd
4th									0.0	0.4	2.6	5.9	4.4	0.9	0.0						14.4	4th
5th								0.0	0.5	2.6	5.0	3.2	0.5	0.0							11.9	5th
6th							0.0	0.5	2.6	3.9	2.2	0.3	0.0								9.5	6th
7th						0.0	0.6	2.0	2.6	1.2	0.2	0.0									6.5	7th
8th					0.0	0.4	1.2	1.5	0.7	0.1	0.0										3.9	8th
9th				0.0	0.3	0.8	0.7	0.2	0.0	0.0											2.1	9th
10th		0.0	0.0	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0													0.9	10th
11th	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0															0.2	11th

Total	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.8	1.5	2.6	4.2	6.3	8.3	10.2	11.9	12.4	12.5	10.7	8.5	5.6	3.0	1.0			Total

Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	1.0		1.0
17-1	100.0%	3.0		2.9	0.2
16-2	88.9%	5.0		3.8	1.2	0.0
15-3	59.7%	5.1		2.7	2.0	0.3	0.0
14-4	25.8%	2.8		0.8	1.3	0.6	0.1
13-5	5.6%	0.7		0.1	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0
12-6	0.4%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	17.6%	17.6		11.2	4.9	1.2	0.2	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	1.0%		99.8%	61.0%	38.8%	3.4		0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0					0.0		99.4%
17-1	3.0%		96.2%	48.7%	47.5%	5.2		0.2	0.3	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0				0.1		92.7%
16-2	5.6%		87.4%	39.2%	48.2%	7.3		0.0	0.1	0.3	0.5	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.2	0.0	0.0			0.7		79.3%
15-3	8.5%		71.8%	31.5%	40.2%	9.2		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.5	0.5	0.6	0.9	1.1	1.1	0.8	0.1	0.0			2.4		58.8%
14-4	10.7%		50.3%	21.6%	28.7%	10.3					0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.7	1.0	1.4	1.2	0.2	0.0			5.3		36.6%
13-5	12.5%		30.0%	14.5%	15.5%	11.1						0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.6	1.1	1.3	0.3	0.0	0.0		8.8		18.1%
12-6	12.4%		16.4%	10.1%	6.3%	11.7							0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0		10.4		7.0%
11-7	11.9%		8.6%	6.4%	2.2%	12.3									0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0	10.9		2.4%
10-8	10.2%		4.5%	4.1%	0.4%	13.0										0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0	9.8		0.4%
9-9	8.3%		2.3%	2.2%	0.1%	13.5												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	8.1		0.1%
8-10	6.3%		1.1%	1.1%		14.3													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	6.2
7-11	4.2%		0.7%	0.7%		14.7													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	4.2
6-12	2.6%		0.4%	0.4%		15.6																0.0	0.0	2.6
5-13	1.5%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	1.5
4-14	0.8%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	0.8
3-15	0.3%																							0.3
2-16	0.1%																							0.1
1-17	0.0%																							0.0
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		27.9%	13.8%	14.0%	9.1		0.4	0.6	0.9	1.2	1.4	1.6	1.7	1.9	2.7	3.6	4.8	5.0	1.5	0.4	0.2	0.0	72.1		16.3%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.2%	100.0%	1.8	45.0	38.5	13.8	1.3	1.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.1%	100.0%	2.5	19.7	33.1	32.6	10.7		3.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.0%	100.0%	2.8	12.9	43.5	21.0	11.3		11.3