Preseason Rankings
New Orleans
Southland
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating-7.4#298
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace78.1#23
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.4#229
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-5.9#333
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.7% 38.4% 19.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.4 15.9
.500 or above 44.7% 83.4% 43.3%
.500 or above in Conference 76.8% 94.4% 76.2%
Conference Champion 24.5% 47.0% 23.7%
Last Place in Conference 4.8% 0.9% 5.0%
First Four14.3% 15.4% 14.2%
First Round12.0% 30.8% 11.3%
Second Round0.3% 1.9% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.4% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Mississippi (Away) - 3.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 31 - 31 - 8
Quad 412 - 713 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 66   @ Mississippi L 63-82 4%    
  Nov 16, 2021 58   @ Northwestern L 69-88 4%    
  Nov 19, 2021 173   Rice L 81-85 35%    
  Nov 24, 2021 334   Central Arkansas W 87-80 72%    
  Nov 25, 2021 319   Presbyterian W 77-72 65%    
  Nov 26, 2021 218   VMI L 83-84 45%    
  Nov 30, 2021 94   @ Texas A&M L 66-82 9%    
  Dec 03, 2021 171   @ Louisiana L 78-88 19%    
  Dec 11, 2021 72   @ Utah St. L 69-87 7%    
  Dec 21, 2021 136   @ Tulane L 70-83 16%    
  Dec 28, 2021 12   @ Ohio St. L 65-91 2%    
  Jan 06, 2022 331   McNeese St. W 82-78 62%    
  Jan 15, 2022 230   Nicholls St. L 83-84 48%    
  Jan 20, 2022 325   SE Louisiana W 83-77 67%    
  Jan 22, 2022 338   Northwestern St. W 87-80 73%    
  Jan 27, 2022 348   @ Houston Baptist W 90-85 65%    
  Jan 29, 2022 331   @ McNeese St. W 81-80 52%    
  Feb 03, 2022 342   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi W 81-78 58%    
  Feb 05, 2022 345   @ Incarnate Word W 77-74 60%    
  Feb 10, 2022 342   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 84-75 75%    
  Feb 12, 2022 345   Incarnate Word W 80-71 76%    
  Feb 19, 2022 331   McNeese St. W 84-77 70%    
  Feb 24, 2022 325   @ SE Louisiana L 79-80 49%    
  Feb 26, 2022 338   @ Northwestern St. W 84-83 55%    
  Mar 02, 2022 348   Houston Baptist W 93-82 81%    
  Mar 05, 2022 230   @ Nicholls St. L 80-87 30%    
Projected Record 12 - 14 9 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 3.1 6.5 7.2 5.1 2.0 24.5 1st
2nd 0.1 1.6 5.9 8.4 4.8 1.2 22.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.1 6.4 6.0 1.9 0.1 16.7 3rd
4th 0.1 2.0 5.7 4.1 0.8 0.0 12.7 4th
5th 0.2 1.8 4.6 2.7 0.3 9.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.7 3.3 1.7 0.1 7.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.1 0.9 0.1 4.7 7th
8th 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.0 2.7 8th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.4 4.3 6.2 8.6 10.7 12.6 13.3 13.3 11.4 8.4 5.1 2.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 2.0    2.0
13-1 100.0% 5.1    4.7 0.4
12-2 85.5% 7.2    5.4 1.7 0.0
11-3 56.8% 6.5    3.5 2.6 0.4 0.0
10-4 22.9% 3.1    0.8 1.5 0.6 0.1
9-5 5.1% 0.7    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
8-6 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 24.5% 24.5 16.6 6.4 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 2.0% 64.6% 64.6% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7
13-1 5.1% 55.6% 55.6% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.9 2.3
12-2 8.4% 45.6% 45.6% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 3.2 4.6
11-3 11.4% 35.8% 35.8% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 3.8 7.3
10-4 13.3% 25.7% 25.7% 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.4 9.9
9-5 13.3% 15.7% 15.7% 16.0 0.0 2.1 11.2
8-6 12.6% 9.6% 9.6% 16.0 1.2 11.4
7-7 10.7% 5.2% 5.2% 16.0 0.6 10.1
6-8 8.6% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.2 8.3
5-9 6.2% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.1 6.1
4-10 4.3% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 4.3
3-11 2.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.4
2-12 1.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.2
1-13 0.5% 0.5
0-14 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 19.7% 19.7% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.9 17.0 80.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%