Preseason Rankings
Southland
2021-22


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
230 Nicholls St. 38.1%   16   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 10 10 - 4 -3.7      -0.7 196 -3.1 270 75.9 48 0.0 1 0.0 1
298 New Orleans 19.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 14 9 - 5 -7.4      -1.4 229 -5.9 333 78.1 23 0.0 1 0.0 1
325 SE Louisiana 11.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 15 7 - 7 -9.9      -4.4 307 -5.5 324 70.1 152 0.0 1 0.0 1
331 McNeese St. 9.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 16 7 - 7 -11.0      -4.0 294 -7.0 342 69.6 162 0.0 1 0.0 1
338 Northwestern St. 7.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 7 - 18 6 - 8 -11.8      -4.7 313 -7.2 344 74.9 63 0.0 1 0.0 1
342 TX A&M Corpus Christi 5.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 15 6 - 8 -12.9      -7.6 346 -5.3 319 72.0 104 0.0 1 0.0 1
345 Incarnate Word 4.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 17 6 - 8 -13.5      -5.9 334 -7.6 348 62.7 324 0.0 1 0.0 1
348 Houston Baptist 3.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 6 - 15 5 - 9 -15.3      -4.4 306 -10.9 356 78.5 21 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th
Nicholls St. 2.2 48.6 21.5 12.2 7.5 4.8 3.0 1.7 0.8
New Orleans 3.1 24.5 22.0 16.7 12.7 9.6 7.1 4.7 2.7
SE Louisiana 3.9 13.7 16.5 16.3 14.8 12.8 11.0 9.0 5.8
McNeese St. 4.3 10.6 13.7 14.7 14.9 14.1 12.7 11.1 8.2
Northwestern St. 4.6 8.6 11.5 13.4 14.7 14.9 13.9 12.8 10.1
TX A&M Corpus Christi 4.9 6.6 9.5 12.0 13.5 14.7 15.1 15.2 13.3
Incarnate Word 5.1 5.4 9.0 11.0 13.0 14.6 15.8 16.2 15.0
Houston Baptist 5.7 3.2 5.6 8.1 10.6 13.0 16.0 19.3 24.2




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0
Nicholls St. 10 - 4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.5 4.0 6.4 8.6 11.4 14.2 15.7 15.2 12.5 7.0
New Orleans 9 - 5 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.4 4.3 6.2 8.6 10.7 12.6 13.3 13.3 11.4 8.4 5.1 2.0
SE Louisiana 7 - 7 0.3 1.3 2.8 5.1 7.4 9.8 11.4 12.6 12.6 11.8 9.9 7.5 4.5 2.3 0.6
McNeese St. 7 - 7 0.6 1.9 4.2 6.5 9.2 11.0 12.2 12.8 12.1 10.3 8.3 5.6 3.4 1.5 0.4
Northwestern St. 6 - 8 0.8 2.5 5.2 7.7 10.2 12.0 13.0 12.8 11.2 9.1 7.1 4.5 2.5 1.1 0.3
TX A&M Corpus Christi 6 - 8 1.2 3.7 6.4 9.7 11.6 12.7 12.8 12.0 10.0 7.9 5.5 3.5 1.9 0.8 0.2
Incarnate Word 6 - 8 1.7 4.2 7.4 10.3 12.0 13.3 13.0 11.3 9.5 7.2 5.1 3.0 1.5 0.6 0.1
Houston Baptist 5 - 9 3.2 7.6 10.9 13.0 13.8 13.3 11.3 9.1 7.1 4.9 3.0 1.7 0.7 0.3 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Nicholls St. 48.6% 37.2 9.4 1.8 0.2 0.0
New Orleans 24.5% 16.6 6.4 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
SE Louisiana 13.7% 8.6 4.0 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
McNeese St. 10.6% 6.2 3.3 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Northwestern St. 8.6% 5.1 2.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
TX A&M Corpus Christi 6.6% 3.7 2.1 0.6 0.1 0.0
Incarnate Word 5.4% 3.0 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Houston Baptist 3.2% 1.6 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Nicholls St. 38.1% 38.1% 0.0% 16   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 5.1 31.0 61.9 0.0%
New Orleans 19.7% 19.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.9 17.0 80.3 0.0%
SE Louisiana 11.7% 11.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 10.8 88.3 0.0%
McNeese St. 9.3% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 8.7 90.7 0.0%
Northwestern St. 7.5% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 7.0 92.5 0.0%
TX A&M Corpus Christi 5.8% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 5.6 94.2 0.0%
Incarnate Word 4.8% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 4.5 95.2 0.0%
Houston Baptist 3.1% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.0 96.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Nicholls St. 38.1% 24.2% 26.7% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
New Orleans 19.7% 14.3% 12.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SE Louisiana 11.7% 9.6% 6.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
McNeese St. 9.3% 7.7% 5.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northwestern St. 7.5% 6.3% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
TX A&M Corpus Christi 5.8% 5.3% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Incarnate Word 4.8% 4.0% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Houston Baptist 3.1% 2.8% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0 0.0
1st Round 60.3% 0.6 39.7 60.3
2nd Round 1.4% 0.0 98.6 1.4
Sweet Sixteen 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0