Preseason Rankings
Patriot League
2021-22


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
105 Colgate 43.4%   15   0 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 9 14 - 4 +4.8      +4.5 56 +0.2 168 76.4 41 0.0 1 0.0 1
184 Navy 15.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 13 11 - 7 -0.9      -0.9 205 +0.1 174 65.8 266 0.0 1 0.0 1
197 Boston University 13.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 13 11 - 7 -1.8      -0.2 177 -1.6 230 63.8 306 0.0 1 0.0 1
257 Army 5.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 16 9 - 9 -5.3      -4.0 293 -1.3 223 70.5 139 0.0 1 0.0 1
259 American 5.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 17 9 - 9 -5.3      -3.6 282 -1.8 233 66.4 255 0.0 1 0.0 1
276 Loyola Maryland 4.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 16 8 - 10 -6.1      -3.2 270 -3.0 267 68.0 214 0.0 1 0.0 1
292 Lafayette 3.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 17 8 - 10 -7.0      -1.7 235 -5.3 317 70.2 144 0.0 1 0.0 1
294 Bucknell 3.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 19 7 - 11 -7.2      -3.5 280 -3.7 291 76.5 40 0.0 1 0.0 1
297 Lehigh 3.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 18 7 - 11 -7.3      -3.7 286 -3.7 290 72.1 101 0.0 1 0.0 1
321 Holy Cross 1.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 19 6 - 12 -9.3      -3.5 279 -5.8 331 70.1 151 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Colgate 2.0 56.5 20.0 10.2 5.7 3.3 2.0 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1
Navy 3.7 18.6 20.6 16.6 12.5 9.7 7.5 5.8 4.2 2.9 1.7
Boston University 4.0 15.2 18.6 16.1 13.3 10.7 8.7 6.7 5.0 3.6 2.1
Army 5.5 5.7 9.6 11.3 12.5 12.4 11.9 11.0 10.2 8.8 6.6
American 5.5 5.9 9.9 11.2 12.0 12.1 11.8 11.2 10.2 8.9 6.7
Loyola Maryland 5.8 4.7 8.2 10.0 11.1 12.0 11.7 11.5 11.7 10.5 8.7
Lafayette 6.2 3.5 6.6 8.7 10.1 11.0 11.4 12.3 12.6 12.4 11.3
Bucknell 6.3 3.1 6.5 8.2 9.9 11.1 11.6 12.3 12.8 12.8 11.7
Lehigh 6.3 3.2 6.2 8.0 9.7 10.6 11.6 12.4 12.8 13.2 12.3
Holy Cross 7.1 1.6 3.5 5.2 7.0 8.8 10.7 12.2 14.5 16.5 20.1




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Colgate 14 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.1 1.7 2.8 4.0 6.0 8.5 10.5 13.4 15.0 15.5 12.8 7.6
Navy 11 - 7 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.7 2.5 3.9 5.5 6.9 8.4 9.8 10.9 11.3 10.8 9.6 7.7 5.5 2.9 0.9
Boston University 11 - 7 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.2 3.1 4.6 6.3 8.0 9.3 10.4 11.2 10.8 10.1 8.6 6.5 4.3 2.1 0.7
Army 9 - 9 0.3 1.0 2.2 3.7 5.4 7.2 8.7 10.0 10.5 10.8 10.2 8.8 7.5 5.6 3.8 2.4 1.3 0.5 0.1
American 9 - 9 0.3 1.0 2.3 3.7 5.5 7.4 8.7 10.0 10.4 10.6 9.8 8.8 7.5 5.6 3.9 2.5 1.4 0.5 0.1
Loyola Maryland 8 - 10 0.4 1.5 2.9 4.6 6.8 8.5 9.4 10.3 10.7 10.2 9.2 8.0 6.3 4.7 3.1 2.0 1.0 0.4 0.1
Lafayette 8 - 10 0.7 2.0 3.9 5.9 8.0 9.3 10.4 10.7 10.2 9.6 8.6 6.7 5.4 3.9 2.5 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.0
Bucknell 7 - 11 0.7 2.0 4.0 6.3 7.9 9.7 10.3 10.7 10.3 9.8 8.3 6.9 5.0 3.7 2.2 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1
Lehigh 7 - 11 0.7 2.1 4.3 6.3 8.4 9.8 10.5 10.8 10.4 9.4 8.0 6.5 5.1 3.4 2.2 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1
Holy Cross 6 - 12 1.7 4.3 7.0 8.8 10.9 11.3 11.4 10.7 9.2 7.4 6.2 4.2 2.9 1.9 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Colgate 56.5% 45.5 9.4 1.4 0.2 0.0
Navy 18.6% 12.6 4.9 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0
Boston University 15.2% 10.1 4.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0
Army 5.7% 3.4 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
American 5.9% 3.6 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Loyola Maryland 4.7% 2.8 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
Lafayette 3.5% 2.0 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Bucknell 3.1% 1.8 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Lehigh 3.2% 1.9 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0
Holy Cross 1.6% 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Colgate 43.4% 42.4% 1.0% 15   0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.0 2.4 6.7 10.5 9.6 6.7 3.4 56.6 1.8%
Navy 15.5% 15.3% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.5 3.7 4.0 3.6 84.5 0.2%
Boston University 13.4% 13.3% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.0 3.0 3.7 3.6 86.6 0.1%
Army 5.9% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.7 2.4 94.1 0.0%
American 5.9% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.6 2.6 94.1 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 4.7% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.3 95.3 0.0%
Lafayette 3.6% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.9 96.4 0.0%
Bucknell 3.6% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.9 96.4 0.0%
Lehigh 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.8 96.7 0.0%
Holy Cross 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.3 98.1 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Colgate 43.4% 1.9% 42.6% 8.8% 2.9% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Navy 15.5% 1.9% 14.6% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston University 13.4% 1.9% 12.5% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Army 5.9% 1.4% 5.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
American 5.9% 1.6% 5.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 4.7% 1.3% 4.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lafayette 3.6% 1.1% 3.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bucknell 3.6% 1.2% 3.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lehigh 3.3% 1.1% 2.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Holy Cross 1.9% 0.9% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 98.7 1.3
1st Round 93.4% 0.9 6.6 92.4 0.9
2nd Round 12.7% 0.1 87.3 12.6 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 3.8% 0.0 96.2 3.8 0.0
Elite Eight 0.9% 0.0 99.1 0.9
Final Four 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Final Game 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0