Preseason Rankings
Lafayette
Patriot League
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating-7.0#292
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace70.2#144
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.7#235
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-5.3#317
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.6% 12.3% 3.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 14.3 15.3
.500 or above 25.0% 66.9% 23.9%
.500 or above in Conference 39.0% 72.9% 38.1%
Conference Champion 3.5% 13.6% 3.2%
Last Place in Conference 17.0% 3.8% 17.4%
First Four1.1% 1.4% 1.1%
First Round3.1% 11.6% 2.9%
Second Round0.1% 1.0% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Syracuse (Away) - 2.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 31 - 62 - 10
Quad 410 - 811 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 44   @ Syracuse L 66-87 3%    
  Nov 12, 2021 290   Cornell W 76-73 61%    
  Nov 16, 2021 187   @ Penn L 70-79 22%    
  Nov 19, 2021 10   @ Duke L 62-88 1%    
  Nov 22, 2021 50   @ Rutgers L 62-82 4%    
  Nov 29, 2021 315   @ Columbia L 73-74 45%    
  Dec 02, 2021 288   Sacred Heart W 75-72 59%    
  Dec 05, 2021 293   NJIT W 75-72 60%    
  Dec 08, 2021 181   @ Delaware L 68-77 22%    
  Dec 11, 2021 168   Princeton L 73-77 37%    
  Jan 01, 2022 105   Colgate L 76-85 24%    
  Jan 04, 2022 259   @ American L 69-74 35%    
  Jan 07, 2022 321   @ Holy Cross L 75-76 48%    
  Jan 10, 2022 184   Navy L 70-73 40%    
  Jan 13, 2022 276   @ Loyola Maryland L 72-76 38%    
  Jan 16, 2022 257   Army W 74-73 54%    
  Jan 19, 2022 321   Holy Cross W 78-73 66%    
  Jan 22, 2022 105   @ Colgate L 73-88 12%    
  Jan 26, 2022 197   Boston University L 71-73 43%    
  Jan 29, 2022 257   @ Army L 71-76 35%    
  Feb 02, 2022 259   American W 72-71 54%    
  Feb 05, 2022 294   Bucknell W 80-77 60%    
  Feb 07, 2022 184   @ Navy L 67-76 24%    
  Feb 12, 2022 297   @ Lehigh L 74-77 42%    
  Feb 16, 2022 276   Loyola Maryland W 75-73 57%    
  Feb 19, 2022 294   @ Bucknell L 77-80 41%    
  Feb 23, 2022 197   @ Boston University L 68-76 26%    
  Feb 26, 2022 297   Lehigh W 77-74 60%    
Projected Record 11 - 17 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.0 3.5 1st
2nd 0.1 0.7 1.9 2.1 1.3 0.5 0.0 6.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.5 2.9 2.7 1.2 0.2 0.0 8.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.2 4.1 2.6 0.7 0.1 10.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 2.9 4.5 2.6 0.5 0.0 11.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 3.3 4.7 2.4 0.3 0.0 11.4 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 3.9 5.0 2.1 0.3 0.0 12.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.2 4.5 1.7 0.2 12.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 2.6 4.3 3.5 1.1 0.1 0.0 12.4 9th
10th 0.7 1.9 3.2 3.0 1.9 0.6 0.1 11.3 10th
Total 0.7 2.0 3.9 5.9 8.0 9.3 10.4 10.7 10.2 9.6 8.6 6.7 5.4 3.9 2.5 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
16-2 92.6% 0.6    0.5 0.1
15-3 66.0% 0.9    0.6 0.3 0.0
14-4 37.6% 0.9    0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-5 14.0% 0.5    0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.9% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.5% 3.5 2.0 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 48.2% 43.8% 4.4% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.8%
17-1 0.3% 42.8% 41.3% 1.5% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.6%
16-2 0.6% 34.8% 34.4% 0.4% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 0.6%
15-3 1.4% 24.9% 24.9% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.0
14-4 2.5% 19.0% 19.0% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 2.0
13-5 3.9% 13.4% 13.4% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 3.4
12-6 5.4% 9.9% 9.9% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 4.9
11-7 6.7% 6.8% 6.8% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 6.3
10-8 8.6% 4.1% 4.1% 15.8 0.1 0.3 8.2
9-9 9.6% 2.8% 2.8% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 9.3
8-10 10.2% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 0.2 10.1
7-11 10.7% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 10.6
6-12 10.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 10.4
5-13 9.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 9.3
4-14 8.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 8.0
3-15 5.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.8
2-16 3.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.9
1-17 2.0% 2.0
0-18 0.7% 0.7
Total 100% 3.6% 3.6% 0.0% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.9 96.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%