Preseason Rankings
Southern
2021-22


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
109 Furman 25.7%   12   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 11 12 - 6 +4.5      +2.6 103 +1.9 118 68.8 193 0.0 1 0.0 1
135 Chattanooga 16.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 12 11 - 7 +2.3      +1.6 129 +0.7 155 66.1 261 0.0 1 0.0 1
139 Wofford 15.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 12 11 - 7 +1.9      +1.1 140 +0.7 153 64.7 294 0.0 1 0.0 1
141 East Tennessee St. 15.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 12 11 - 7 +1.8      +0.6 157 +1.2 136 64.5 297 0.0 1 0.0 1
149 UNC Greensboro 13.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 12 10 - 8 +1.4      -0.2 181 +1.6 127 69.3 181 0.0 1 0.0 1
155 Mercer 11.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 13 10 - 8 +0.7      +1.0 147 -0.3 180 68.2 207 0.0 1 0.0 1
218 VMI 4.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 15 8 - 10 -2.9      +0.7 155 -3.6 288 72.9 93 0.0 1 0.0 1
255 Samford 2.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 16 7 - 11 -5.2      -1.0 208 -4.2 302 79.3 18 0.0 1 0.0 1
272 The Citadel 1.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 16 6 - 12 -6.0      -0.4 189 -5.6 326 81.2 7 0.0 1 0.0 1
309 Western Carolina 0.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 21 5 - 13 -8.4      -3.0 265 -5.4 321 73.6 78 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Furman 3.2 30.2 19.5 14.3 11.0 8.8 6.3 4.5 3.1 1.6 0.6
Chattanooga 4.0 18.7 16.3 14.5 13.1 10.8 9.3 7.3 5.0 3.4 1.7
Wofford 4.1 17.4 15.6 14.1 13.0 11.6 9.6 7.6 5.7 3.7 1.8
East Tennessee St. 4.1 17.2 15.5 14.3 12.9 11.4 9.9 7.7 5.6 3.7 1.8
UNC Greensboro 4.3 15.4 14.9 14.1 12.9 11.6 10.1 8.4 6.4 4.2 2.0
Mercer 4.6 13.0 13.0 13.0 12.8 12.3 11.2 9.5 7.4 5.1 2.8
VMI 6.0 4.7 6.6 8.1 9.8 11.4 12.8 13.8 13.1 11.7 8.0
Samford 6.9 2.2 3.6 5.2 7.1 9.0 11.1 13.8 16.1 17.0 14.9
The Citadel 7.2 1.7 2.9 4.2 5.9 7.9 10.3 13.3 16.4 19.0 18.3
Western Carolina 8.0 0.7 1.3 2.3 3.4 5.3 7.3 11.2 15.6 21.9 30.9




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Furman 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.6 2.5 3.7 5.2 7.0 8.5 10.1 11.2 11.6 11.5 10.4 7.9 5.1 2.1
Chattanooga 11 - 7 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 1.9 3.0 4.5 5.9 7.6 9.0 10.3 10.9 11.0 10.2 8.8 6.9 4.6 2.6 0.8
Wofford 11 - 7 0.0 0.3 0.5 1.2 2.1 3.4 4.8 6.3 8.0 9.3 10.7 10.7 10.9 9.7 8.3 6.3 4.5 2.2 0.7
East Tennessee St. 11 - 7 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 2.2 3.3 4.8 6.6 8.0 9.4 10.5 11.0 10.7 9.8 8.3 6.4 4.3 2.1 0.7
UNC Greensboro 10 - 8 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.3 3.8 5.5 7.2 8.2 9.6 10.6 10.8 10.4 9.5 7.9 5.7 3.6 1.9 0.6
Mercer 10 - 8 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.8 3.1 4.6 6.3 7.7 9.3 10.3 10.7 10.5 9.8 8.3 6.4 4.9 3.1 1.4 0.5
VMI 8 - 10 0.5 1.5 3.2 5.0 7.1 9.0 9.8 11.0 11.0 10.0 8.8 7.4 5.7 4.1 2.8 1.6 0.9 0.3 0.1
Samford 7 - 11 1.2 3.5 5.9 8.5 10.4 11.0 11.3 11.0 9.5 8.0 6.5 4.9 3.4 2.2 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
The Citadel 6 - 12 1.7 4.5 7.5 9.6 11.3 11.6 11.5 10.3 8.8 7.4 5.5 4.0 2.7 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Western Carolina 5 - 13 4.0 8.3 11.4 13.2 12.9 12.2 10.4 8.4 6.4 4.7 3.1 2.1 1.4 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Furman 30.2% 22.0 6.6 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Chattanooga 18.7% 12.7 4.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Wofford 17.4% 11.6 4.6 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
East Tennessee St. 17.2% 11.5 4.6 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
UNC Greensboro 15.4% 10.2 4.0 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Mercer 13.0% 8.6 3.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0
VMI 4.7% 2.8 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Samford 2.2% 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
The Citadel 1.7% 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Western Carolina 0.7% 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Furman 25.7% 23.4% 2.4% 12   0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.2 2.4 5.4 6.1 4.1 2.0 0.8 74.3 3.1%
Chattanooga 16.5% 15.2% 1.3% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.1 3.2 4.1 3.3 2.0 0.9 83.5 1.5%
Wofford 15.1% 14.1% 1.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.0 2.6 3.5 3.2 2.0 1.1 84.9 1.2%
East Tennessee St. 15.2% 14.1% 1.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 1.0 2.9 3.9 2.9 2.0 0.9 84.8 1.2%
UNC Greensboro 13.7% 12.9% 0.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 2.5 3.4 2.9 2.0 0.9 86.3 1.0%
Mercer 11.4% 10.7% 0.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.9 2.8 2.4 1.8 0.9 88.6 0.8%
VMI 4.6% 4.5% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.2 1.1 0.9 95.4 0.1%
Samford 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 97.6 0.0%
The Citadel 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 98.1 0.0%
Western Carolina 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 99.1 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Furman 25.7% 1.4% 25.1% 6.7% 2.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Chattanooga 16.5% 1.0% 16.0% 3.4% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Wofford 15.1% 1.0% 14.6% 3.0% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
East Tennessee St. 15.2% 0.9% 14.8% 2.9% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
UNC Greensboro 13.7% 0.9% 13.3% 2.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mercer 11.4% 0.8% 11.0% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
VMI 4.6% 0.5% 4.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Samford 2.4% 0.4% 2.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
The Citadel 1.9% 0.4% 1.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Carolina 0.9% 0.2% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.1 92.6 7.2 0.2 0.0
1st Round 98.4% 1.0 1.6 92.9 5.4 0.1
2nd Round 20.6% 0.2 79.4 20.0 0.5 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 6.2% 0.1 93.8 6.2 0.0
Elite Eight 1.6% 0.0 98.4 1.6 0.0
Final Four 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5
Final Game 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Champion 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1