Preseason Rankings
Alabama St.
Southwestern Athletic
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating-16.5#351
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace72.9#94
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-11.0#354
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-5.5#322
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.0% 3.5% 0.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 4.0% 28.6% 3.7%
.500 or above in Conference 30.9% 68.9% 30.6%
Conference Champion 0.9% 7.4% 0.8%
Last Place in Conference 10.5% 1.4% 10.6%
First Four0.9% 2.7% 0.9%
First Round0.4% 2.4% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Kentucky (Away) - 1.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 5
Quad 20 - 30 - 8
Quad 30 - 40 - 12
Quad 48 - 128 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 100   @ Western Kentucky L 58-83 1%    
  Nov 10, 2021 92   @ Vanderbilt L 60-85 1%    
  Nov 13, 2021 96   @ Missouri St. L 60-85 1%    
  Nov 16, 2021 127   @ Iowa St. L 62-84 3%    
  Nov 18, 2021 39   @ Iowa L 60-91 0.5%   
  Nov 20, 2021 339   NC Central L 67-68 47%    
  Nov 28, 2021 318   North Alabama L 71-75 35%    
  Dec 01, 2021 87   @ Dayton L 55-81 2%    
  Dec 08, 2021 255   Samford L 74-82 24%    
  Dec 11, 2021 147   @ Pepperdine L 65-86 4%    
  Dec 15, 2021 3   @ UCLA L 49-86 0.1%   
  Dec 21, 2021 11   @ Memphis L 55-90 0.3%   
  Dec 28, 2021 21   @ Texas Tech L 50-83 0.4%   
  Jan 03, 2022 358   @ Mississippi Valley W 77-72 65%    
  Jan 05, 2022 355   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff W 68-67 53%    
  Jan 08, 2022 262   Jackson St. L 63-71 26%    
  Jan 10, 2022 347   Alcorn St. W 72-71 53%    
  Jan 15, 2022 340   Alabama A&M L 65-66 48%    
  Jan 22, 2022 232   @ Prairie View L 62-78 11%    
  Jan 24, 2022 211   @ Texas Southern L 66-83 9%    
  Jan 29, 2022 350   Bethune-Cookman L 70-71 50%    
  Jan 31, 2022 304   Florida A&M L 66-72 33%    
  Feb 05, 2022 312   @ Grambling St. L 66-77 19%    
  Feb 07, 2022 317   @ Southern L 67-78 20%    
  Feb 12, 2022 355   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 71-64 70%    
  Feb 14, 2022 358   Mississippi Valley W 80-69 81%    
  Feb 19, 2022 304   @ Florida A&M L 63-75 19%    
  Feb 21, 2022 350   @ Bethune-Cookman L 69-72 41%    
  Feb 26, 2022 340   @ Alabama A&M L 62-69 29%    
  Mar 03, 2022 317   Southern L 70-75 36%    
  Mar 05, 2022 312   Grambling St. L 69-74 35%    
Projected Record 8 - 23 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.6 1.4 1.3 0.3 0.0 3.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.2 1.7 0.4 0.0 5.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.3 2.2 0.4 0.0 7.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.1 4.2 2.6 0.5 0.0 9.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.7 5.1 3.0 0.5 0.0 11.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 3.6 5.5 3.1 0.6 0.0 13.5 8th
9th 0.0 1.1 4.4 6.0 2.6 0.5 0.0 14.6 9th
10th 0.1 1.4 4.8 4.9 2.0 0.3 0.0 13.6 10th
11th 0.2 2.0 4.0 3.3 1.0 0.1 0.0 10.7 11th
12th 0.5 1.9 2.3 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 6.3 12th
Total 0.5 2.1 4.4 6.7 9.5 11.1 12.2 11.5 11.0 9.4 7.4 5.5 3.8 2.5 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 93.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 73.3% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
15-3 44.8% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-4 17.0% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 3.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.9% 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 14.6% 14.6% 15.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 34.5% 34.5% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.3% 19.4% 19.4% 16.0 0.1 0.2
15-3 0.7% 12.8% 12.8% 16.0 0.0 0.1 0.6
14-4 1.3% 10.2% 10.2% 16.0 0.1 1.2
13-5 2.5% 5.3% 5.3% 16.0 0.1 2.4
12-6 3.8% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.2 3.7
11-7 5.5% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.1 5.4
10-8 7.4% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 7.3
9-9 9.4% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 9.3
8-10 11.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 10.9
7-11 11.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.5
6-12 12.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 12.2
5-13 11.1% 11.1
4-14 9.5% 9.5
3-15 6.7% 6.7
2-16 4.4% 4.4
1-17 2.1% 2.1
0-18 0.5% 0.5
Total 100% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 1.0 99.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%