Preseason Rankings
Arizona St.
Pac-12
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+8.9#61
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace79.4#17
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.2#47
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.7#73
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.2% 1.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 3.1% 3.1% 0.2%
Top 4 Seed 8.5% 8.7% 0.4%
Top 6 Seed 15.3% 15.7% 1.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 36.9% 37.8% 7.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 33.6% 34.4% 6.9%
Average Seed 7.1 7.1 8.8
.500 or above 57.7% 59.0% 17.8%
.500 or above in Conference 47.8% 48.7% 17.1%
Conference Champion 5.0% 5.2% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 9.5% 9.0% 27.2%
First Four3.8% 3.9% 1.1%
First Round35.0% 35.8% 6.6%
Second Round20.5% 21.0% 2.6%
Sweet Sixteen8.7% 9.0% 1.0%
Elite Eight3.8% 3.9% 0.4%
Final Four1.6% 1.6% 0.0%
Championship Game0.7% 0.7% 0.0%
National Champion0.2% 0.3% 0.0%

Next Game: Portland (Home) - 97.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 9
Quad 24 - 47 - 13
Quad 34 - 112 - 14
Quad 44 - 016 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 307   Portland W 93-73 97%    
  Nov 11, 2021 148   UC Riverside W 79-69 82%    
  Nov 15, 2021 280   North Florida W 88-70 94%    
  Nov 18, 2021 42   @ San Diego St. L 70-75 33%    
  Nov 24, 2021 9   Baylor L 75-82 28%    
  Dec 01, 2021 69   Washington St. W 78-74 62%    
  Dec 05, 2021 19   @ Oregon L 74-82 26%    
  Dec 09, 2021 142   Grand Canyon W 79-69 80%    
  Dec 14, 2021 48   @ Creighton L 77-81 37%    
  Dec 19, 2021 67   San Francisco W 80-76 61%    
  Dec 21, 2021 304   Florida A&M W 86-66 94%    
  Dec 30, 2021 20   @ USC L 71-79 26%    
  Jan 01, 2022 3   @ UCLA L 68-79 18%    
  Jan 08, 2022 31   Arizona L 77-78 49%    
  Jan 13, 2022 88   Utah W 80-74 68%    
  Jan 15, 2022 47   Colorado W 75-73 55%    
  Jan 19, 2022 113   @ California W 73-71 56%    
  Jan 22, 2022 71   @ Stanford L 76-78 43%    
  Jan 29, 2022 31   @ Arizona L 75-81 31%    
  Feb 03, 2022 20   USC L 74-76 45%    
  Feb 05, 2022 3   UCLA L 71-76 33%    
  Feb 10, 2022 95   @ Washington W 81-80 51%    
  Feb 12, 2022 69   @ Washington St. L 75-77 43%    
  Feb 17, 2022 19   Oregon L 77-79 44%    
  Feb 19, 2022 70   Oregon St. W 77-73 61%    
  Feb 24, 2022 47   @ Colorado L 72-76 37%    
  Feb 26, 2022 88   @ Utah L 77-78 50%    
  Mar 03, 2022 113   California W 76-68 73%    
  Mar 05, 2022 71   Stanford W 79-75 62%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.4 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.1 5.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.1 2.1 1.2 0.4 0.1 6.9 2nd
3rd 0.3 1.5 2.8 2.4 0.9 0.1 0.0 8.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.4 2.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 8.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.1 3.9 2.4 0.5 0.0 0.0 9.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.4 4.2 2.5 0.4 0.0 9.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.5 4.1 2.3 0.4 0.0 9.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 2.5 4.1 2.3 0.4 0.0 9.9 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 2.6 3.8 2.1 0.3 0.0 9.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.6 3.2 1.6 0.3 0.0 8.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 1.4 2.4 2.3 1.0 0.3 0.0 7.9 11th
12th 0.3 0.8 1.5 1.7 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 6.0 12th
Total 0.3 0.9 1.9 3.2 4.7 6.0 7.5 8.7 9.4 9.6 9.3 9.0 7.9 6.5 5.5 3.9 2.7 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.1 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
18-2 93.9% 0.8    0.7 0.1
17-3 74.6% 1.3    0.9 0.4 0.0
16-4 50.0% 1.4    0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
15-5 20.8% 0.8    0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-6 5.7% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 5.0% 5.0 3.0 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 60.5% 39.5% 1.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.3% 100.0% 49.7% 50.3% 1.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.8% 100.0% 38.4% 61.6% 2.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 1.7% 100.0% 30.7% 69.3% 2.6 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 2.7% 99.9% 23.0% 76.9% 3.7 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
15-5 3.9% 99.0% 17.4% 81.6% 4.8 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.8%
14-6 5.5% 97.0% 13.3% 83.7% 6.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 96.5%
13-7 6.5% 91.3% 9.4% 81.9% 7.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 90.4%
12-8 7.9% 77.3% 6.1% 71.2% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.0 0.0 1.8 75.8%
11-9 9.0% 59.0% 4.2% 54.7% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 3.7 57.1%
10-10 9.3% 33.9% 2.0% 31.9% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 6.1 32.5%
9-11 9.6% 12.0% 1.2% 10.8% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 8.4 11.0%
8-12 9.4% 2.8% 0.7% 2.1% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 9.1 2.1%
7-13 8.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.3% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.6 0.3%
6-14 7.5% 0.1% 0.1% 15.0 0.0 0.0 7.5
5-15 6.0% 0.1% 0.1% 15.5 0.0 0.0 6.0
4-16 4.7% 4.7
3-17 3.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.2
2-18 1.9% 1.9
1-19 0.9% 0.9
0-20 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 36.9% 5.0% 31.9% 7.1 1.2 1.9 2.5 2.9 3.3 3.5 3.9 4.1 3.9 3.4 3.5 2.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 63.1 33.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0