Preseason Rankings
Arkansas Little Rock
Sun Belt
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating-6.2#277
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace67.3#229
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-4.0#291
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-2.2#244
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.4% 4.5% 1.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.5 15.1
.500 or above 17.2% 33.1% 9.8%
.500 or above in Conference 29.7% 44.2% 22.8%
Conference Champion 2.5% 5.1% 1.3%
Last Place in Conference 22.5% 11.9% 27.6%
First Four0.5% 0.7% 0.4%
First Round2.2% 4.2% 1.3%
Second Round0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Illinois (Home) - 32.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 32 - 83 - 13
Quad 47 - 69 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 140   Southern Illinois L 64-69 32%    
  Nov 17, 2021 82   @ Loyola Marymount L 61-77 8%    
  Nov 21, 2021 196   Sam Houston St. L 71-75 35%    
  Nov 26, 2021 108   @ Tulsa L 59-73 12%    
  Dec 01, 2021 51   @ Colorado St. L 62-81 6%    
  Dec 04, 2021 17   @ Arkansas L 63-86 3%    
  Dec 08, 2021 96   Missouri St. L 67-76 24%    
  Dec 14, 2021 334   @ Central Arkansas W 75-73 57%    
  Dec 21, 2021 164   Jacksonville St. L 66-69 39%    
  Dec 30, 2021 245   Georgia Southern W 67-66 55%    
  Jan 01, 2022 121   Georgia St. L 71-77 31%    
  Jan 06, 2022 269   @ Louisiana Monroe L 66-69 40%    
  Jan 08, 2022 171   @ Louisiana L 70-79 23%    
  Jan 13, 2022 194   @ Arkansas St. L 67-75 27%    
  Jan 15, 2022 194   Arkansas St. L 70-72 45%    
  Jan 20, 2022 174   Texas St. L 61-64 41%    
  Jan 22, 2022 224   Texas Arlington W 70-69 51%    
  Jan 27, 2022 190   @ Coastal Carolina L 69-77 26%    
  Jan 29, 2022 182   @ Appalachian St. L 62-70 25%    
  Feb 03, 2022 171   Louisiana L 73-76 40%    
  Feb 05, 2022 269   Louisiana Monroe W 69-66 58%    
  Feb 10, 2022 214   @ South Alabama L 67-73 31%    
  Feb 12, 2022 243   @ Troy L 67-72 36%    
  Feb 17, 2022 224   @ Texas Arlington L 67-73 33%    
  Feb 19, 2022 174   @ Texas St. L 58-67 24%    
  Feb 24, 2022 182   Appalachian St. L 65-67 43%    
  Feb 26, 2022 190   Coastal Carolina L 72-74 44%    
Projected Record 9 - 18 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 3.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 4.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.9 2.2 0.9 0.1 0.0 5.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.0 2.8 0.9 0.1 0.0 6.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.1 3.5 1.5 0.2 7.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.0 4.0 1.9 0.2 0.0 8.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.3 2.7 0.4 0.0 9.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.1 4.6 3.1 0.5 0.0 10.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 2.7 4.6 3.6 0.7 0.0 12.2 10th
11th 0.2 1.3 3.7 4.9 3.0 0.7 0.0 13.9 11th
12th 1.4 3.3 4.5 3.8 2.0 0.5 0.0 15.5 12th
Total 1.4 3.5 5.9 8.0 10.0 10.5 11.1 10.4 9.6 8.3 6.7 5.0 3.8 2.7 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 90.7% 0.4    0.3 0.1 0.0
15-3 76.5% 0.7    0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-4 42.5% 0.7    0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-5 16.4% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 3.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.5% 2.5 1.5 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 58.7% 58.7% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 49.8% 38.5% 11.2% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 18.3%
16-2 0.4% 34.0% 33.4% 0.5% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8%
15-3 0.9% 26.2% 26.2% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.7
14-4 1.7% 17.1% 17.1% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.4
13-5 2.7% 13.9% 13.9% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 2.3
12-6 3.8% 9.9% 9.9% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 3.4
11-7 5.0% 6.5% 6.5% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 4.7
10-8 6.7% 3.0% 3.0% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 6.5
9-9 8.3% 2.0% 2.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 8.1
8-10 9.6% 1.0% 1.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 9.5
7-11 10.4% 0.6% 0.6% 15.9 0.0 0.1 10.3
6-12 11.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 11.0
5-13 10.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 10.5
4-14 10.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.0
3-15 8.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 8.0
2-16 5.9% 5.9
1-17 3.5% 3.5
0-18 1.4% 1.4
Total 100% 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 97.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.7%