Preseason Rankings
Arkansas St.
Sun Belt
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating-1.6#194
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.4#200
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.3#163
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.9#237
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.8% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.6% 21.9% 8.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 1.2% 0.1%
Average Seed 14.3 12.6 14.4
.500 or above 62.7% 93.4% 61.8%
.500 or above in Conference 60.1% 87.1% 59.3%
Conference Champion 10.4% 28.0% 9.8%
Last Place in Conference 6.9% 1.4% 7.1%
First Four0.8% 0.9% 0.8%
First Round8.2% 21.4% 7.8%
Second Round1.0% 5.0% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 1.3% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Illinois (Away) - 3.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 33 - 54 - 9
Quad 412 - 416 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2021 8   @ Illinois L 65-86 3%    
  Nov 19, 2021 268   @ Southeast Missouri St. W 74-73 54%    
  Nov 26, 2021 158   Morehead St. W 70-69 53%    
  Nov 28, 2021 233   UMKC W 68-63 67%    
  Dec 04, 2021 334   Central Arkansas W 84-71 86%    
  Dec 08, 2021 355   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff W 77-61 90%    
  Dec 11, 2021 358   @ Mississippi Valley W 86-66 95%    
  Dec 14, 2021 21   @ Texas Tech L 59-77 7%    
  Dec 19, 2021 306   Air Force W 72-63 78%    
  Dec 30, 2021 121   Georgia St. L 76-78 44%    
  Jan 01, 2022 245   Georgia Southern W 72-66 69%    
  Jan 06, 2022 171   @ Louisiana L 74-79 36%    
  Jan 08, 2022 269   @ Louisiana Monroe W 71-70 54%    
  Jan 13, 2022 277   Arkansas Little Rock W 75-67 73%    
  Jan 15, 2022 277   @ Arkansas Little Rock W 72-70 55%    
  Jan 20, 2022 224   Texas Arlington W 75-70 65%    
  Jan 22, 2022 174   Texas St. W 66-65 55%    
  Jan 27, 2022 182   @ Appalachian St. L 66-70 38%    
  Jan 29, 2022 190   @ Coastal Carolina L 74-77 39%    
  Feb 03, 2022 269   Louisiana Monroe W 74-67 72%    
  Feb 05, 2022 171   Louisiana W 77-76 55%    
  Feb 10, 2022 243   @ Troy L 71-72 50%    
  Feb 12, 2022 214   @ South Alabama L 71-73 44%    
  Feb 17, 2022 174   @ Texas St. L 63-68 36%    
  Feb 19, 2022 224   @ Texas Arlington L 72-73 46%    
  Feb 24, 2022 190   Coastal Carolina W 77-74 58%    
  Feb 26, 2022 182   Appalachian St. W 69-67 57%    
Projected Record 15 - 12 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.4 2.7 2.3 1.2 0.4 10.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.1 3.6 2.7 1.2 0.3 0.0 10.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.8 4.0 2.2 0.6 0.0 10.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.6 4.2 2.1 0.4 0.0 9.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.5 4.4 2.0 0.3 0.0 9.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.0 4.3 2.2 0.3 0.0 9.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.2 2.5 0.3 0.0 8.9 7th
8th 0.2 1.3 3.5 2.6 0.4 0.0 8.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.2 2.5 0.4 0.0 7.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.4 2.0 0.5 0.0 6.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.9 1.5 0.4 0.0 5.5 11th
12th 0.2 0.7 1.1 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 4.2 12th
Total 0.2 0.7 1.5 2.7 4.0 5.4 7.2 8.5 9.6 10.2 10.2 9.8 8.7 7.5 5.7 4.0 2.5 1.2 0.4 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 99.5% 1.2    1.1 0.1
16-2 88.9% 2.3    1.8 0.4 0.0
15-3 68.7% 2.7    1.8 0.9 0.1 0.0
14-4 41.4% 2.4    1.0 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0
13-5 15.9% 1.2    0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 3.2% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 10.4% 10.4 6.4 3.0 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 58.6% 53.3% 5.3% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 11.3%
17-1 1.2% 50.1% 47.2% 2.9% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 5.5%
16-2 2.5% 39.2% 38.4% 0.8% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.5 1.3%
15-3 4.0% 29.2% 29.1% 0.1% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.0 2.8 0.2%
14-4 5.7% 22.4% 22.4% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.1 4.4 0.1%
13-5 7.5% 17.4% 17.4% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.2 6.2
12-6 8.7% 12.7% 12.7% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 7.6
11-7 9.8% 9.1% 9.1% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 8.9
10-8 10.2% 4.7% 4.7% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 9.7
9-9 10.2% 2.7% 2.7% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 9.9
8-10 9.6% 1.2% 1.2% 15.9 0.0 0.1 9.5
7-11 8.5% 1.0% 1.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 8.4
6-12 7.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 7.2
5-13 5.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 5.4
4-14 4.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 4.0
3-15 2.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.7
2-16 1.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.5
1-17 0.7% 0.7
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 8.6% 8.5% 0.1% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.1 2.5 1.8 91.4 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 5.0 51.9 22.2 25.9