IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Bowling Green
Mid-American
2021-22

Overall
Predictive Rating	+1.3	#150
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	73.1	#88
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+2.4	#106

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-1.1	#208

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.3%	0.4%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	8.3%	10.0%	3.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.9%	1.2%	0.1%
Average Seed	12.6	12.5	13.8

.500 or above	66.1%	74.8%	41.7%
.500 or above in Conference	63.4%	69.6%	46.1%
Conference Champion	7.6%	9.2%	3.0%
Last Place in Conference	2.8%	1.7%	5.7%

First Four	0.5%	0.7%	0.2%
First Round	8.1%	9.7%	3.5%
Second Round	1.8%	2.3%	0.4%
Sweet Sixteen	0.6%	0.8%	0.1%
Elite Eight	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Western Carolina (Away) - 73.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	1 - 3	1 - 6
Quad 3	4 - 5	6 - 10
Quad 4	11 - 3	17 - 13

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 09, 2021	309	@ Western Carolina	W	83-76	74%
Nov 15, 2021	12	@ Ohio St.	L	67-84	7%
Nov 19, 2021	291	Norfolk St.	W	79-68	84%
Nov 23, 2021	205	Wisconsin-Milwaukee	W	80-77	61%
Nov 28, 2021	357	Chicago St.	W	91-65	99%
Dec 01, 2021	162	@ Duquesne	L	74-76	43%
Dec 07, 2021	221	Oakland	W	84-76	73%
Dec 19, 2021	282	Robert Morris	W	82-71	81%
Dec 28, 2021	128	Akron	W	77-75	55%
Jan 01, 2022	199	@ Ball St.	W	79-78	51%
Jan 04, 2022	152	Miami (OH)	W	76-73	61%
Jan 08, 2022	83	@ Buffalo	L	79-87	25%
Jan 11, 2022	91	@ Ohio	L	74-82	27%
Jan 15, 2022	114	Toledo	W	79-78	52%
Jan 18, 2022	314	@ Northern Illinois	W	76-69	71%
Jan 22, 2022	284	@ Western Michigan	W	76-71	65%
Jan 25, 2022	300	Eastern Michigan	W	80-68	83%
Jan 29, 2022	132	Kent St.	W	79-77	56%
Feb 01, 2022	279	@ Central Michigan	W	85-80	65%
Feb 05, 2022	314	Northern Illinois	W	79-66	85%
Feb 08, 2022	132	@ Kent St.	L	76-80	37%
Feb 12, 2022	152	@ Miami (OH)	L	73-76	42%
Feb 15, 2022	83	Buffalo	L	82-84	43%
Feb 19, 2022	199	Ball St.	W	81-75	69%
Feb 22, 2022	128	@ Akron	L	74-78	37%
Feb 26, 2022	284	Western Michigan	W	79-68	80%
Mar 01, 2022	91	Ohio	L	77-79	45%
Mar 04, 2022	114	@ Toledo	L	76-82	33%
Projected Record						16 - 12	11 - 9

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Mid-American Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st														0.0	0.2	0.8	1.8	2.2	1.5	0.8	0.2		7.6	1st
2nd												0.0	0.1	0.5	1.9	3.0	2.4	0.9	0.1				8.8	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.1	1.0	2.8	3.5	2.2	0.5	0.0					10.2	3rd
4th										0.0	0.2	1.4	3.6	4.2	1.9	0.3	0.0						11.6	4th
5th									0.0	0.3	1.7	3.9	4.1	1.4	0.2	0.0							11.6	5th
6th								0.0	0.4	2.1	4.2	3.9	1.2	0.1									12.0	6th
7th							0.0	0.6	2.5	4.3	2.9	0.9	0.1	0.0									11.4	7th
8th					0.0	0.1	0.8	2.7	3.6	2.2	0.6	0.1											9.9	8th
9th				0.0	0.1	0.9	2.2	2.5	1.3	0.3	0.0												7.4	9th
10th			0.0	0.2	0.8	1.6	1.5	0.7	0.1	0.0													5.0	10th
11th		0.0	0.3	0.7	1.0	0.8	0.3	0.0	0.0														3.1	11th
12th	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.5	0.3	0.1	0.0																1.6	12th

Total	0.1	0.2	0.7	1.4	2.2	3.5	4.8	6.6	7.9	9.2	9.6	10.3	10.0	9.1	7.6	6.3	4.7	3.1	1.7	0.8	0.2			Total

Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.2		0.2
19-1	100.0%	0.8		0.8	0.0
18-2	91.8%	1.5		1.3	0.3	0.0
17-3	70.9%	2.2		1.4	0.7	0.1
16-4	38.3%	1.8		0.8	0.8	0.2	0.0
15-5	13.0%	0.8		0.2	0.4	0.2	0.0
14-6	2.5%	0.2		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
13-7	0.2%	0.0		0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.0%
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	7.6%	7.6		4.7	2.2	0.6	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.2%		86.1%	56.3%	29.8%	6.5			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0				0.0		68.2%
19-1	0.8%		73.6%	49.2%	24.4%	9.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0			0.2		48.1%
18-2	1.7%		56.3%	41.8%	14.6%	11.0					0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.0			0.7		25.0%
17-3	3.1%		38.1%	31.2%	6.9%	11.9						0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0		1.9		10.0%
16-4	4.7%		24.4%	22.4%	2.0%	12.7									0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.4	0.2	0.0		3.5		2.5%
15-5	6.3%		17.1%	16.8%	0.3%	13.2												0.0	0.3	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0	5.2		0.4%
14-6	7.6%		12.9%	12.8%	0.1%	13.5												0.0	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.1	0.0	6.7		0.1%
13-7	9.1%		9.1%	9.1%		14.0												0.0	0.0	0.2	0.4	0.2	0.0	8.3
12-8	10.0%		5.5%	5.5%		14.3													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	9.4
11-9	10.3%		3.9%	3.9%		14.7													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	9.9
10-10	9.6%		2.2%	2.2%		15.1														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	9.4
9-11	9.2%		1.6%	1.6%		15.7															0.0	0.0	0.1	9.0
8-12	7.9%		0.5%	0.5%		15.9																0.0	0.0	7.9
7-13	6.6%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	6.6
6-14	4.8%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	4.8
5-15	3.5%																							3.5
4-16	2.2%																							2.2
3-17	1.4%																							1.4
2-18	0.7%																							0.7
1-19	0.2%																							0.2
0-20	0.1%																							0.1

Total	100%		8.3%	7.4%	0.8%	12.6		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.6	1.6	2.0	1.7	0.9	0.4	91.7		0.9%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.0%	100.0%	3.5		25.0	26.3	22.5	25.0	1.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.0%	100.0%	5.7			17.6	2.9	20.6	41.2			17.6