IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Central Arkansas
Atlantic Sun
2021-22

Overall
Predictive Rating	-11.4	#334
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	75.2	#60
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-4.2	#300

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-7.1	#343

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	0.8%	3.9%	0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.6	15.0	15.7

.500 or above	3.7%	24.8%	3.3%
.500 or above in Conference	13.9%	42.5%	13.3%
Conference Champion	0.5%	3.1%	0.4%
Last Place in Conference	37.1%	12.0%	37.6%

First Four	0.5%	0.7%	0.5%
First Round	0.6%	3.7%	0.5%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Saint Louis (Away) - 2.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 1b	0 - 2	0 - 4
Quad 2	0 - 3	0 - 7
Quad 3	1 - 7	1 - 14
Quad 4	5 - 8	6 - 22

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 09, 2021	79	@ Saint Louis	L	66-87	2%
Nov 12, 2021	64	@ Butler	L	60-83	2%
Nov 17, 2021	9	@ Baylor	L	62-92	0.4%
Nov 20, 2021	154	Oral Roberts	L	79-88	21%
Nov 24, 2021	298	@ New Orleans	L	80-87	28%
Nov 25, 2021	218	VMI	L	77-85	24%
Nov 26, 2021	319	Presbyterian	L	71-73	42%
Dec 01, 2021	17	@ Arkansas	L	68-96	1%
Dec 04, 2021	194	@ Arkansas St.	L	71-84	14%
Dec 14, 2021	277	Arkansas Little Rock	L	73-75	43%
Dec 18, 2021	96	@ Missouri St.	L	68-88	5%
Dec 29, 2021	94	@ Texas A&M	L	62-82	5%
Jan 04, 2022	180	@ Eastern Kentucky	L	78-92	13%
Jan 08, 2022	226	Lipscomb	L	73-78	35%
Jan 11, 2022	165	@ Bellarmine	L	67-82	12%
Jan 15, 2022	318	North Alabama	W	79-78	52%
Jan 18, 2022	164	Jacksonville St.	L	69-78	25%
Jan 22, 2022	110	Liberty	L	64-77	16%
Jan 27, 2022	280	@ North Florida	L	74-82	26%
Jan 29, 2022	302	@ Jacksonville	L	72-79	30%
Feb 03, 2022	222	Florida Gulf Coast	L	77-82	34%
Feb 05, 2022	251	Stetson	L	75-78	40%
Feb 09, 2022	311	@ Kennesaw St.	L	73-79	32%
Feb 12, 2022	164	@ Jacksonville St.	L	66-81	12%
Feb 16, 2022	165	Bellarmine	L	70-79	25%
Feb 19, 2022	180	Eastern Kentucky	L	81-89	27%
Feb 23, 2022	318	@ North Alabama	L	76-81	33%
Feb 26, 2022	226	@ Lipscomb	L	70-81	20%
Projected Record						6 - 22	4 - 12

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

	0-16	1-15	2-14	3-13	4-12	5-11	6-10	7-9	8-8	9-7	10-6	11-5	12-4	13-3	14-2	15-1	16-0		Total
1st											0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0		0.5	1st
2nd										0.0	0.1	0.4	0.3	0.2	0.0				1.0	2nd
3rd									0.0	0.2	0.7	0.7	0.2	0.0					1.8	3rd
4th								0.0	0.3	1.1	1.0	0.3	0.0						2.6	4th
5th							0.0	0.2	1.4	1.5	0.4	0.0							3.5	5th
6th						0.0	0.2	1.6	2.4	0.7	0.0								4.9	6th
7th						0.2	1.9	3.2	1.3	0.1									6.6	7th
8th				0.0	0.2	1.9	4.3	1.9	0.2	0.0									8.5	8th
9th			0.0	0.3	2.4	5.2	2.9	0.4	0.0										11.1	9th
10th			0.5	3.3	6.3	3.7	0.6	0.0											14.4	10th
11th		1.2	5.5	7.5	4.2	0.7	0.0												19.2	11th
12th	5.1	9.1	7.6	3.3	0.7	0.0													25.8	12th

Total	5.1	10.3	13.6	14.3	13.8	11.8	9.9	7.3	5.5	3.6	2.3	1.4	0.7	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0			Total

Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
16-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
15-1	100.0%	0.0		0.0	0.0
14-2	82.8%	0.1		0.1	0.0	0.0
13-3	43.9%	0.1		0.1	0.1	0.0
12-4	21.1%	0.1		0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0
11-5	4.1%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
10-6	0.1%	0.0						0.0
9-7	0.0%
8-8	0.0%

Total	0.5%	0.5		0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
16-0	0.0%																							0.0
15-1	0.0%		21.1%	15.6%	5.5%	13.0													0.0		0.0			0.0		6.5%
14-2	0.1%		17.7%	17.7%		14.8														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1
13-3	0.3%		20.5%	20.5%		14.6													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.3
12-4	0.7%		13.5%	13.5%		15.2														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.6
11-5	1.4%		6.4%	6.4%		15.5														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	1.3
10-6	2.3%		5.3%	5.3%		15.7															0.0	0.0	0.1	2.1
9-7	3.6%		2.7%	2.7%		15.8															0.0	0.0	0.1	3.5
8-8	5.5%		2.4%	2.4%		16.0																0.0	0.1	5.4
7-9	7.3%		1.0%	1.0%		16.0																	0.1	7.2
6-10	9.9%		0.6%	0.6%		16.0																	0.1	9.9
5-11	11.8%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	11.8
4-12	13.8%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	13.7
3-13	14.3%																							14.3
2-14	13.6%																							13.6
1-15	10.3%																							10.3
0-16	5.1%																							5.1

Total	100%		0.8%	0.8%	0.0%	15.6													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.6	99.2		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	2.7%