Preseason Rankings
Duke
Atlantic Coast
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+15.8#10
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.5#164
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+8.8#8
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+7.0#20
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 3.4% 5.2% 1.2%
#1 Seed 12.9% 19.4% 5.2%
Top 2 Seed 24.4% 35.4% 11.5%
Top 4 Seed 42.6% 56.7% 26.0%
Top 6 Seed 56.5% 71.1% 39.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 80.9% 90.9% 69.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 76.2% 87.8% 64.6%
Average Seed 4.8 4.1 5.9
.500 or above 94.5% 98.3% 89.9%
.500 or above in Conference 86.6% 92.3% 79.8%
Conference Champion 25.1% 32.8% 16.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.2% 1.0%
First Four2.5% 1.6% 3.5%
First Round79.8% 90.1% 67.6%
Second Round61.0% 73.1% 46.9%
Sweet Sixteen36.9% 47.4% 24.6%
Elite Eight20.6% 27.9% 12.1%
Final Four11.3% 15.9% 6.0%
Championship Game6.1% 8.9% 3.0%
National Champion3.2% 4.8% 1.3%

Next Game: Kentucky (Neutral) - 53.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 53 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 26 - 7
Quad 26 - 212 - 9
Quad 35 - 117 - 9
Quad 47 - 024 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 14   Kentucky W 74-73 54%    
  Nov 12, 2021 257   Army W 84-60 99%    
  Nov 13, 2021 200   Campbell W 79-58 97%    
  Nov 16, 2021 225   Gardner-Webb W 83-61 97%    
  Nov 19, 2021 292   Lafayette W 88-62 99%    
  Nov 22, 2021 272   The Citadel W 94-69 98%    
  Nov 25, 2021 1   Gonzaga L 80-85 33%    
  Nov 30, 2021 12   @ Ohio St. L 72-74 42%    
  Dec 14, 2021 352   South Carolina St. W 96-59 99.9%   
  Dec 16, 2021 182   Appalachian St. W 78-58 94%    
  Dec 18, 2021 151   Cleveland St. W 81-63 93%    
  Dec 22, 2021 34   Virginia Tech W 74-67 71%    
  Dec 29, 2021 55   @ Clemson W 69-65 61%    
  Jan 01, 2022 45   @ Notre Dame W 75-73 58%    
  Jan 04, 2022 60   Georgia Tech W 76-66 79%    
  Jan 08, 2022 85   Miami (FL) W 79-67 84%    
  Jan 12, 2022 103   @ Wake Forest W 76-68 74%    
  Jan 15, 2022 59   North Carolina St. W 77-67 78%    
  Jan 17, 2022 18   @ Florida St. L 74-75 47%    
  Jan 22, 2022 44   Syracuse W 79-71 75%    
  Jan 25, 2022 55   Clemson W 72-62 77%    
  Jan 29, 2022 27   @ Louisville W 71-70 51%    
  Feb 05, 2022 22   @ North Carolina L 77-78 48%    
  Feb 07, 2022 29   Virginia W 64-58 69%    
  Feb 12, 2022 144   @ Boston College W 82-71 81%    
  Feb 15, 2022 103   Wake Forest W 79-65 87%    
  Feb 19, 2022 18   Florida St. W 77-72 66%    
  Feb 23, 2022 29   @ Virginia W 62-61 51%    
  Feb 26, 2022 44   @ Syracuse W 76-74 57%    
  Mar 01, 2022 117   @ Pittsburgh W 77-68 76%    
  Mar 05, 2022 22   North Carolina W 80-75 66%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.9 4.4 6.2 6.3 4.4 1.6 25.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.5 4.9 5.1 2.4 0.6 0.0 16.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.4 4.5 3.6 1.2 0.1 12.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.0 2.8 0.7 0.0 9.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.3 2.6 0.6 0.0 8.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 2.8 2.4 0.6 0.0 6.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.0 2.2 0.7 0.1 5.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.1 0.8 0.1 4.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.7 0.9 0.1 0.0 3.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 0.8 0.1 2.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 15th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.5 2.3 3.3 4.5 6.0 7.5 8.8 10.2 10.8 11.1 10.6 8.8 6.8 4.4 1.6 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 1.6    1.6
19-1 99.8% 4.4    4.2 0.2
18-2 91.8% 6.3    5.2 1.0 0.0
17-3 70.7% 6.2    4.1 1.9 0.3 0.0
16-4 41.0% 4.4    1.9 1.8 0.6 0.0 0.0
15-5 16.7% 1.9    0.4 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 3.4% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 25.1% 25.1 17.4 5.8 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 1.6% 100.0% 67.5% 32.5% 1.2 1.3 0.2 0.0 100.0%
19-1 4.4% 100.0% 56.9% 43.1% 1.3 3.1 1.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 6.8% 100.0% 46.3% 53.7% 1.6 3.7 2.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 8.8% 100.0% 37.7% 62.3% 2.2 2.8 3.1 1.8 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 10.6% 100.0% 29.4% 70.6% 3.1 1.4 2.8 2.9 1.9 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
15-5 11.1% 99.8% 22.5% 77.2% 4.2 0.4 1.4 2.5 2.5 1.9 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
14-6 10.8% 99.0% 16.3% 82.7% 5.5 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.9 2.1 1.8 1.4 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.8%
13-7 10.2% 95.7% 11.1% 84.6% 6.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.4 1.7 1.9 1.4 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.4 95.2%
12-8 8.8% 87.6% 7.3% 80.3% 8.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.2 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.1 86.6%
11-9 7.5% 71.2% 4.4% 66.8% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.4 0.0 2.2 69.9%
10-10 6.0% 47.7% 2.5% 45.2% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.1 46.4%
9-11 4.5% 22.5% 1.5% 21.1% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 3.5 21.4%
8-12 3.3% 7.4% 0.8% 6.5% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.0 6.6%
7-13 2.3% 1.3% 0.3% 1.0% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3 1.0%
6-14 1.5% 0.8% 0.7% 0.1% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 0.1%
5-15 0.9% 0.9
4-16 0.5% 0.5
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 80.9% 19.8% 61.1% 4.8 12.9 11.5 9.6 8.5 7.4 6.5 6.2 5.4 4.4 3.6 3.0 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 19.1 76.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 1.1 92.2 7.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.0 97.5 2.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 91.6 8.4