Preseason Rankings
Elon
Colonial Athletic
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating-2.9#217
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace65.0#286
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.7#233
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.2#217
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.5% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.8% 20.8% 7.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 1.7% 0.1%
Average Seed 14.2 12.9 14.4
.500 or above 33.3% 73.7% 31.3%
.500 or above in Conference 52.0% 81.1% 50.6%
Conference Champion 8.8% 23.6% 8.1%
Last Place in Conference 11.3% 1.7% 11.8%
First Four1.1% 1.4% 1.1%
First Round7.3% 20.1% 6.7%
Second Round0.7% 3.7% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 1.0% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida (Away) - 4.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 20 - 21 - 6
Quad 33 - 63 - 12
Quad 48 - 412 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 33   @ Florida L 61-79 5%    
  Nov 18, 2021 32   West Virginia L 64-79 9%    
  Nov 27, 2021 164   Jacksonville St. L 67-68 50%    
  Nov 30, 2021 149   @ UNC Greensboro L 65-72 27%    
  Dec 04, 2021 299   High Point W 71-63 74%    
  Dec 11, 2021 22   @ North Carolina L 64-83 5%    
  Dec 15, 2021 143   Winthrop L 74-76 45%    
  Dec 21, 2021 17   @ Arkansas L 64-84 5%    
  Dec 29, 2021 134   Northeastern L 67-69 43%    
  Dec 31, 2021 192   Hofstra W 72-71 55%    
  Jan 05, 2022 295   William & Mary W 72-65 72%    
  Jan 09, 2022 235   @ College of Charleston L 65-67 43%    
  Jan 11, 2022 266   @ UNC Wilmington L 72-73 49%    
  Jan 15, 2022 239   Towson W 70-66 63%    
  Jan 17, 2022 172   James Madison W 75-74 51%    
  Jan 20, 2022 175   @ Drexel L 64-70 33%    
  Jan 22, 2022 181   @ Delaware L 65-70 34%    
  Jan 29, 2022 295   @ William & Mary W 69-68 54%    
  Feb 03, 2022 266   UNC Wilmington W 76-70 68%    
  Feb 05, 2022 235   College of Charleston W 68-64 62%    
  Feb 10, 2022 172   @ James Madison L 72-78 32%    
  Feb 12, 2022 239   @ Towson L 67-69 45%    
  Feb 17, 2022 181   Delaware W 68-67 53%    
  Feb 19, 2022 175   Drexel W 67-66 51%    
  Feb 24, 2022 192   @ Hofstra L 69-74 36%    
  Feb 26, 2022 134   @ Northeastern L 64-72 27%    
Projected Record 11 - 15 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.5 2.2 2.2 1.5 0.7 0.2 8.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.8 3.5 1.9 0.6 0.1 10.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.7 3.9 3.4 1.3 0.2 0.0 10.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.0 4.4 3.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 10.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.3 4.8 3.0 0.6 0.0 11.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.5 4.9 2.8 0.5 0.0 11.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 2.9 4.3 2.4 0.4 0.0 10.7 7th
8th 0.1 1.0 3.0 3.8 2.0 0.3 0.0 10.2 8th
9th 0.1 0.4 1.5 3.0 2.9 1.2 0.2 0.0 9.3 9th
10th 0.3 1.1 1.8 2.1 1.5 0.5 0.1 7.4 10th
Total 0.3 1.1 2.2 3.7 5.5 7.1 8.5 9.3 10.2 10.2 9.7 8.8 7.4 6.4 4.3 2.8 1.6 0.7 0.2 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 0.7    0.7 0.0
16-2 95.6% 1.5    1.3 0.2
15-3 78.7% 2.2    1.5 0.6 0.0
14-4 51.5% 2.2    1.3 0.8 0.1 0.0
13-5 22.9% 1.5    0.5 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0
12-6 5.9% 0.4    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 8.8% 8.8 5.6 2.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 68.2% 62.9% 5.3% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14.2%
17-1 0.7% 58.7% 52.3% 6.4% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 13.4%
16-2 1.6% 41.6% 40.1% 1.5% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.9 2.5%
15-3 2.8% 33.7% 32.9% 0.8% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.9 1.2%
14-4 4.3% 26.5% 26.5% 0.0% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.0 3.2 0.1%
13-5 6.4% 18.5% 18.4% 0.1% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.1 5.2 0.1%
12-6 7.4% 14.1% 14.1% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.2 6.3
11-7 8.8% 9.0% 9.0% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 8.0
10-8 9.7% 5.9% 5.9% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 9.1
9-9 10.2% 4.5% 4.5% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 9.7
8-10 10.2% 2.7% 2.7% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 9.9
7-11 9.3% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 9.2
6-12 8.5% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 8.4
5-13 7.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 7.1
4-14 5.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.5
3-15 3.7% 3.7
2-16 2.2% 2.2
1-17 1.1% 1.1
0-18 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 7.8% 7.7% 0.1% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 1.4 1.7 2.0 1.8 92.2 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%