Preseason Rankings
Illinois-Chicago
Horizon
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating-5.2#253
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.8#157
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-4.0#292
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.2#219
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.2% 10.1% 3.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 13.9 15.0
.500 or above 33.6% 67.3% 30.4%
.500 or above in Conference 44.6% 71.2% 42.0%
Conference Champion 4.0% 11.5% 3.3%
Last Place in Conference 9.0% 2.0% 9.7%
First Four0.8% 0.9% 0.8%
First Round3.8% 9.5% 3.3%
Second Round0.2% 0.9% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Dayton (Away) - 8.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 32 - 73 - 11
Quad 410 - 613 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 87   @ Dayton L 60-74 9%    
  Nov 13, 2021 189   @ Valparaiso L 66-73 26%    
  Nov 20, 2021 46   @ Loyola Chicago L 55-73 6%    
  Nov 25, 2021 202   Hawaii L 67-70 38%    
  Dec 02, 2021 221   Oakland W 75-74 54%    
  Dec 05, 2021 212   Detroit Mercy W 74-73 51%    
  Dec 11, 2021 279   @ Central Michigan L 76-78 44%    
  Dec 14, 2021 112   DePaul L 69-75 30%    
  Dec 19, 2021 314   Northern Illinois W 71-65 70%    
  Dec 30, 2021 247   Purdue Fort Wayne W 76-73 58%    
  Jan 01, 2022 151   Cleveland St. L 68-71 40%    
  Jan 06, 2022 115   @ Wright St. L 68-80 17%    
  Jan 08, 2022 166   @ Northern Kentucky L 64-72 25%    
  Jan 10, 2022 333   @ IUPUI W 77-74 60%    
  Jan 13, 2022 205   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 70-76 31%    
  Jan 15, 2022 316   @ Green Bay W 71-70 51%    
  Jan 20, 2022 166   Northern Kentucky L 67-69 42%    
  Jan 22, 2022 115   Wright St. L 71-77 31%    
  Jan 27, 2022 212   @ Detroit Mercy L 70-76 33%    
  Jan 29, 2022 221   @ Oakland L 72-77 35%    
  Feb 03, 2022 282   Robert Morris W 74-70 63%    
  Feb 05, 2022 281   Youngstown St. W 74-70 63%    
  Feb 10, 2022 151   @ Cleveland St. L 65-74 24%    
  Feb 12, 2022 247   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 73-76 40%    
  Feb 14, 2022 333   IUPUI W 80-71 77%    
  Feb 17, 2022 281   @ Youngstown St. L 71-73 45%    
  Feb 19, 2022 282   @ Robert Morris L 71-73 45%    
  Feb 24, 2022 316   Green Bay W 73-67 69%    
  Feb 26, 2022 205   Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 73-74 49%    
Projected Record 12 - 17 10 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 4.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 1.8 1.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 5.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.0 2.3 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 7.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.7 2.5 1.1 0.2 0.0 8.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 1.9 3.4 2.6 0.8 0.1 0.0 9.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.3 3.7 2.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 9.9 6th
7th 0.1 0.7 2.7 4.2 2.2 0.6 0.1 10.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.1 3.7 2.1 0.4 0.0 10.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.5 3.3 3.4 1.7 0.3 0.0 10.6 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 1.8 3.3 2.6 1.1 0.2 0.0 9.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.1 2.4 1.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 8.3 11th
12th 0.2 0.8 1.3 1.6 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 6.0 12th
Total 0.2 0.8 1.5 2.7 4.0 5.2 6.9 7.7 8.5 8.9 9.2 8.5 8.0 7.0 5.9 4.9 3.8 2.6 1.8 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
21-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
20-2 94.9% 0.5    0.5 0.1
19-3 78.2% 0.9    0.7 0.2 0.0
18-4 54.5% 1.0    0.6 0.3 0.1
17-5 29.5% 0.8    0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
16-6 11.2% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
15-7 2.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 4.0% 4.0 2.5 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0 0.1% 71.4% 67.9% 3.6% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.1%
21-1 0.2% 48.8% 44.6% 4.2% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 7.5%
20-2 0.6% 45.7% 44.5% 1.2% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 2.1%
19-3 1.1% 33.3% 33.3% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7
18-4 1.8% 25.5% 25.4% 0.1% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.4 0.2%
17-5 2.6% 20.0% 20.0% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 2.1
16-6 3.8% 13.8% 13.8% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 3.3
15-7 4.9% 8.8% 8.8% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 4.5
14-8 5.9% 7.2% 7.2% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 5.5
13-9 7.0% 4.7% 4.7% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 6.7
12-10 8.0% 3.8% 3.8% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 7.7
11-11 8.5% 2.5% 2.5% 15.9 0.0 0.2 8.3
10-12 9.2% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 9.1
9-13 8.9% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 8.9
8-14 8.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 8.4
7-15 7.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.7
6-16 6.9% 6.9
5-17 5.2% 5.2
4-18 4.0% 4.0
3-19 2.7% 2.7
2-20 1.5% 1.5
1-21 0.8% 0.8
0-22 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 4.2% 4.2% 0.0% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.5 95.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 6.9 36.4 21.2 21.2 21.2
Lose Out 0.1%