Preseason Rankings
Illinois
Big Ten
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+16.1#8
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace74.2#72
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+8.6#12
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+7.5#12
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 4.8% 4.8% 0.4%
#1 Seed 15.8% 15.9% 1.3%
Top 2 Seed 28.4% 28.7% 2.5%
Top 4 Seed 48.0% 48.4% 7.5%
Top 6 Seed 62.1% 62.6% 14.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 80.6% 81.1% 36.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 77.5% 78.0% 34.6%
Average Seed 4.3 4.3 7.1
.500 or above 89.8% 90.1% 52.4%
.500 or above in Conference 77.0% 77.4% 39.6%
Conference Champion 17.2% 17.4% 2.4%
Last Place in Conference 1.8% 1.7% 9.1%
First Four2.6% 2.6% 2.0%
First Round79.3% 79.8% 35.6%
Second Round62.8% 63.3% 19.7%
Sweet Sixteen39.0% 39.3% 9.4%
Elite Eight22.3% 22.5% 4.6%
Final Four12.1% 12.2% 1.3%
Championship Game6.4% 6.5% 0.5%
National Champion3.4% 3.4% 0.2%

Next Game: Jackson St. (Home) - 99.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 53 - 5
Quad 1b4 - 27 - 8
Quad 26 - 213 - 9
Quad 34 - 017 - 10
Quad 45 - 022 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 262   Jackson St. W 84-59 99%    
  Nov 12, 2021 194   Arkansas St. W 86-65 97%    
  Nov 15, 2021 78   @ Marquette W 77-71 70%    
  Nov 22, 2021 90   Cincinnati W 82-72 81%    
  Nov 26, 2021 310   UT Rio Grande Valley W 90-62 99%    
  Nov 29, 2021 45   Notre Dame W 81-72 77%    
  Dec 03, 2021 50   Rutgers W 77-68 77%    
  Dec 06, 2021 39   @ Iowa W 81-79 56%    
  Dec 11, 2021 31   Arizona W 78-71 72%    
  Dec 18, 2021 283   St. Francis (PA) W 90-64 98%    
  Dec 22, 2021 84   Missouri W 79-70 77%    
  Dec 29, 2021 304   Florida A&M W 86-59 99%    
  Jan 02, 2022 106   @ Minnesota W 81-73 75%    
  Jan 06, 2022 16   Maryland W 73-68 66%    
  Jan 11, 2022 75   @ Nebraska W 82-76 68%    
  Jan 14, 2022 2   Michigan W 74-73 53%    
  Jan 17, 2022 5   Purdue W 74-72 57%    
  Jan 21, 2022 16   @ Maryland L 70-71 47%    
  Jan 25, 2022 24   Michigan St. W 78-72 68%    
  Jan 29, 2022 58   @ Northwestern W 77-73 63%    
  Feb 02, 2022 43   Wisconsin W 73-65 75%    
  Feb 05, 2022 30   @ Indiana W 73-72 52%    
  Feb 10, 2022 5   @ Purdue L 71-75 39%    
  Feb 13, 2022 58   Northwestern W 80-70 79%    
  Feb 16, 2022 50   @ Rutgers W 74-71 60%    
  Feb 19, 2022 24   @ Michigan St. L 74-75 50%    
  Feb 24, 2022 12   Ohio St. W 77-73 63%    
  Feb 27, 2022 2   @ Michigan L 71-76 34%    
  Mar 03, 2022 53   Penn St. W 81-71 78%    
  Mar 06, 2022 39   Iowa W 84-76 73%    
Projected Record 21 - 9 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.6 4.8 3.9 2.3 0.8 17.2 1st
2nd 0.1 0.7 2.6 4.4 3.7 1.7 0.3 0.0 13.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 3.0 4.3 2.6 0.6 0.1 11.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.7 2.8 4.1 2.2 0.4 0.0 10.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.5 3.8 2.0 0.3 0.0 9.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.9 3.4 1.8 0.2 0.0 7.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.1 1.9 0.3 0.0 6.9 7th
8th 0.1 1.0 2.5 1.8 0.3 0.0 5.8 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 2.1 1.9 0.5 0.0 5.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 1.6 0.4 0.0 4.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.3 0.5 0.0 3.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.1 2.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.8 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.9 2.9 3.9 5.4 6.6 7.8 8.9 9.7 10.1 9.8 9.1 8.0 6.6 4.2 2.3 0.8 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.8    0.8
19-1 99.6% 2.3    2.2 0.1
18-2 92.4% 3.9    3.3 0.6 0.0
17-3 72.4% 4.8    3.2 1.5 0.1
16-4 44.8% 3.6    1.7 1.4 0.4 0.0 0.0
15-5 17.7% 1.6    0.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
14-6 3.3% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 17.2% 17.2 11.6 4.3 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.8% 100.0% 65.2% 34.8% 1.1 0.7 0.1 100.0%
19-1 2.3% 100.0% 54.3% 45.7% 1.1 2.0 0.2 0.0 100.0%
18-2 4.2% 100.0% 44.6% 55.4% 1.2 3.2 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 6.6% 100.0% 36.1% 63.9% 1.5 4.0 2.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 8.0% 100.0% 27.2% 72.8% 1.9 3.1 3.1 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 9.1% 100.0% 20.4% 79.6% 2.6 1.7 3.1 2.5 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 9.8% 100.0% 14.6% 85.4% 3.4 0.7 1.9 3.0 2.2 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 10.1% 99.8% 9.8% 90.0% 4.4 0.2 0.9 2.1 2.4 2.1 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
12-8 9.7% 98.6% 6.5% 92.1% 5.5 0.1 0.2 1.0 1.7 2.1 2.0 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.5%
11-9 8.9% 94.8% 3.4% 91.4% 6.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.6 1.6 1.3 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 94.6%
10-10 7.8% 83.5% 2.3% 81.1% 8.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.0 1.3 83.1%
9-11 6.6% 56.6% 1.4% 55.2% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.9 56.0%
8-12 5.4% 26.0% 0.7% 25.3% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 4.0 25.5%
7-13 3.9% 8.0% 0.4% 7.6% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 3.6 7.6%
6-14 2.9% 1.3% 0.2% 1.1% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.9 1.1%
5-15 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 12.4 0.0 0.0 1.9 0.2%
4-16 1.2% 1.2
3-17 0.7% 0.7
2-18 0.3% 0.3
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 80.6% 13.7% 66.9% 4.3 15.8 12.7 10.8 8.7 7.6 6.5 5.1 4.2 2.8 2.4 2.2 1.6 0.2 0.0 19.4 77.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 1.0 95.2 4.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.2 82.4 17.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.0 96.5 3.5