Preseason Rankings
James Madison
Colonial Athletic
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+0.0#172
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace77.1#31
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.6#132
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.6#228
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.5% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.0% 20.1% 9.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.5% 0.8% 0.1%
Average Seed 13.6 13.3 14.5
.500 or above 61.6% 76.5% 45.5%
.500 or above in Conference 70.1% 80.2% 59.3%
Conference Champion 18.1% 24.8% 10.7%
Last Place in Conference 5.0% 2.2% 8.1%
First Four1.2% 1.1% 1.4%
First Round14.5% 19.5% 9.1%
Second Round2.0% 3.2% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 0.9% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Old Dominion (Home) - 51.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 35 - 65 - 9
Quad 410 - 416 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 13, 2021 131   Old Dominion W 76-75 52%    
  Nov 16, 2021 180   @ Eastern Kentucky L 85-87 41%    
  Nov 19, 2021 169   George Mason W 78-75 60%    
  Nov 22, 2021 132   Kent St. L 79-81 42%    
  Nov 28, 2021 159   @ Florida Atlantic L 75-78 39%    
  Dec 07, 2021 29   Virginia L 60-69 22%    
  Dec 11, 2021 264   Radford W 76-67 76%    
  Dec 21, 2021 256   @ Morgan St. W 84-82 57%    
  Dec 28, 2021 187   @ Penn L 76-78 44%    
  Dec 31, 2021 239   @ Towson W 76-75 54%    
  Jan 03, 2022 181   @ Delaware L 74-76 42%    
  Jan 05, 2022 175   @ Drexel L 72-75 41%    
  Jan 09, 2022 192   Hofstra W 81-77 63%    
  Jan 11, 2022 134   Northeastern W 76-75 52%    
  Jan 15, 2022 295   @ William & Mary W 79-75 63%    
  Jan 17, 2022 217   @ Elon L 74-75 49%    
  Jan 20, 2022 266   UNC Wilmington W 86-77 75%    
  Jan 22, 2022 235   College of Charleston W 77-70 71%    
  Jan 27, 2022 175   Drexel W 75-72 60%    
  Jan 29, 2022 181   Delaware W 77-73 61%    
  Feb 03, 2022 134   @ Northeastern L 73-78 33%    
  Feb 05, 2022 192   @ Hofstra L 78-80 45%    
  Feb 10, 2022 217   Elon W 78-72 68%    
  Feb 12, 2022 295   William & Mary W 82-72 79%    
  Feb 17, 2022 235   @ College of Charleston W 74-73 53%    
  Feb 19, 2022 266   @ UNC Wilmington W 83-80 58%    
  Feb 26, 2022 239   Towson W 79-72 72%    
Projected Record 15 - 12 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.1 3.8 4.8 3.7 2.2 0.7 18.1 1st
2nd 0.2 1.3 3.8 5.2 3.5 1.3 0.2 15.5 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.6 4.7 4.6 2.0 0.4 0.0 13.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.6 3.9 1.1 0.1 0.0 11.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.3 3.1 0.7 0.0 10.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.0 2.5 0.5 0.0 9.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.2 2.1 0.4 0.0 7.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 1.6 2.5 1.4 0.2 0.0 6.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 1.7 0.8 0.2 4.8 9th
10th 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 3.1 10th
Total 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 2.7 3.9 5.3 6.9 8.3 9.3 10.0 10.5 10.1 9.5 7.7 6.2 3.9 2.2 0.7 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
17-1 100.0% 2.2    2.1 0.1
16-2 94.6% 3.7    3.2 0.5
15-3 78.0% 4.8    3.4 1.3 0.1
14-4 49.6% 3.8    2.0 1.5 0.3 0.0
13-5 22.6% 2.1    0.7 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 5.7% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 18.1% 18.1 12.3 4.5 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.7% 77.2% 65.6% 11.6% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 33.7%
17-1 2.2% 62.6% 56.8% 5.8% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.8 13.5%
16-2 3.9% 48.3% 45.5% 2.8% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.0 5.1%
15-3 6.2% 39.0% 38.1% 0.9% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.0 3.8 1.5%
14-4 7.7% 28.3% 28.2% 0.1% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.1 5.5 0.2%
13-5 9.5% 22.2% 22.2% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.2 7.4
12-6 10.1% 15.6% 15.6% 14.6 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.3 8.5
11-7 10.5% 10.9% 10.9% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 9.4
10-8 10.0% 8.3% 8.3% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 9.2
9-9 9.3% 5.3% 5.3% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 8.8
8-10 8.3% 3.5% 3.5% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 8.0
7-11 6.9% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 0.1 6.8
6-12 5.3% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 5.3
5-13 3.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 3.9
4-14 2.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 2.7
3-15 1.6% 1.6
2-16 0.8% 0.8
1-17 0.3% 0.3
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 15.0% 14.7% 0.4% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.7 3.3 3.6 3.2 2.0 85.0 0.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 4.5 5.5 7.8 18.8 12.9 31.0 10.2 8.2 2.7 2.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 76.5% 7.6 11.8 27.5 13.7 11.8 11.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 74.1% 7.7 25.9 22.2 25.9
Lose Out 0.0%