Preseason Rankings
Longwood
Big South
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating-4.9#249
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace63.2#318
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-4.1#296
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.8#198
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.4% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.2% 20.8% 7.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 14.2 15.2
.500 or above 57.2% 89.8% 55.9%
.500 or above in Conference 64.5% 87.9% 63.7%
Conference Champion 10.2% 27.8% 9.5%
Last Place in Conference 4.7% 0.8% 4.8%
First Four2.3% 1.6% 2.3%
First Round7.1% 19.7% 6.6%
Second Round0.4% 2.4% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.6% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Iowa (Away) - 3.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 31 - 42 - 7
Quad 413 - 715 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 39   @ Iowa L 62-81 4%    
  Nov 19, 2021 259   American W 66-63 62%    
  Nov 20, 2021 229   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 67-65 56%    
  Nov 21, 2021 309   Western Carolina W 73-67 70%    
  Nov 26, 2021 131   @ Old Dominion L 60-70 19%    
  Nov 30, 2021 86   @ Georgetown L 61-75 12%    
  Dec 04, 2021 354   Delaware St. W 82-65 93%    
  Dec 11, 2021 256   Morgan St. W 73-70 61%    
  Dec 19, 2021 320   @ St. Francis Brooklyn W 73-72 55%    
  Dec 22, 2021 167   @ Abilene Christian L 62-70 26%    
  Dec 30, 2021 356   @ Maryland Eastern Shore W 70-57 86%    
  Jan 05, 2022 329   @ Hampton W 72-69 58%    
  Jan 08, 2022 299   High Point W 68-62 67%    
  Jan 12, 2022 264   @ Radford L 62-64 42%    
  Jan 15, 2022 225   Gardner-Webb W 67-66 55%    
  Jan 19, 2022 200   Campbell L 63-64 50%    
  Jan 22, 2022 319   @ Presbyterian W 64-63 53%    
  Jan 26, 2022 286   N.C. A&T W 72-67 65%    
  Jan 29, 2022 143   Winthrop L 70-74 38%    
  Feb 02, 2022 252   @ UNC Asheville L 68-71 41%    
  Feb 05, 2022 335   @ Charleston Southern W 69-66 61%    
  Feb 09, 2022 343   South Carolina Upstate W 73-62 81%    
  Feb 12, 2022 286   @ N.C. A&T L 69-70 46%    
  Feb 16, 2022 299   @ High Point L 65-66 49%    
  Feb 19, 2022 329   Hampton W 75-66 75%    
  Feb 23, 2022 264   Radford W 65-61 61%    
  Feb 26, 2022 200   @ Campbell L 60-66 32%    
Projected Record 14 - 13 9 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.8 3.1 1.9 0.7 10.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 2.7 4.3 2.9 0.9 0.0 11.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.4 4.8 2.4 0.4 0.0 11.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.2 4.9 2.0 0.2 0.0 10.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.9 4.9 2.1 0.1 10.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.3 4.8 2.3 0.2 9.7 6th
7th 0.1 1.5 4.4 2.5 0.3 8.9 7th
8th 0.1 1.1 3.6 2.7 0.4 0.0 7.8 8th
9th 0.1 0.8 2.9 2.7 0.5 0.0 7.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 2.2 2.2 0.5 0.0 5.7 10th
11th 0.1 0.6 1.5 1.4 0.4 0.0 4.1 11th
12th 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.5 12th
Total 0.1 0.7 1.6 2.9 4.7 6.8 8.4 10.2 11.0 11.3 11.2 9.9 8.4 6.1 4.0 1.9 0.7 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
15-1 97.7% 1.9    1.6 0.3
14-2 77.5% 3.1    2.1 1.0 0.1 0.0
13-3 45.5% 2.8    1.2 1.2 0.3 0.0
12-4 17.2% 1.4    0.3 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
11-5 2.9% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 10.2% 10.2 5.9 3.2 0.9 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.7% 49.9% 49.6% 0.3% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6%
15-1 1.9% 39.5% 39.5% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.2
14-2 4.0% 32.2% 32.2% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 2.7
13-3 6.1% 23.6% 23.6% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.4 4.7
12-4 8.4% 17.2% 17.2% 15.4 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 6.9
11-5 9.9% 10.7% 10.7% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 8.9
10-6 11.2% 7.8% 7.8% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.7 10.3
9-7 11.3% 4.5% 4.5% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.5 10.8
8-8 11.0% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.0 0.3 10.7
7-9 10.2% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 10.1
6-10 8.4% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 8.4
5-11 6.8% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 6.7
4-12 4.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.7
3-13 2.9% 2.9
2-14 1.6% 1.6
1-15 0.7% 0.7
0-16 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 8.2% 8.2% 0.0% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.4 4.0 91.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 7.0 29.8 12.8 29.8 12.8 14.9
Lose Out 0.0%