Preseason Rankings
Maryland
Big Ten
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+13.9#16
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace62.6#327
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+6.4#27
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+7.5#14
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 2.0% 2.1% 0.3%
#1 Seed 7.9% 8.1% 0.8%
Top 2 Seed 16.2% 16.5% 1.9%
Top 4 Seed 32.1% 32.5% 5.2%
Top 6 Seed 45.7% 46.3% 9.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 69.0% 69.7% 27.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 66.2% 67.0% 25.8%
Average Seed 5.3 5.3 7.3
.500 or above 83.8% 84.5% 44.2%
.500 or above in Conference 66.2% 66.8% 30.3%
Conference Champion 9.6% 9.8% 1.7%
Last Place in Conference 3.1% 2.9% 14.8%
First Four3.4% 3.4% 2.7%
First Round67.4% 68.2% 26.0%
Second Round48.9% 49.6% 13.7%
Sweet Sixteen27.6% 27.9% 6.4%
Elite Eight14.4% 14.7% 1.2%
Final Four7.3% 7.4% 0.6%
Championship Game3.6% 3.6% 0.1%
National Champion1.7% 1.7% 0.0%

Next Game: Quinnipiac (Home) - 98.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 63 - 6
Quad 1b3 - 26 - 8
Quad 25 - 211 - 11
Quad 35 - 115 - 11
Quad 45 - 021 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 261   Quinnipiac W 81-59 98%    
  Nov 11, 2021 238   George Washington W 79-58 97%    
  Nov 13, 2021 116   Vermont W 72-59 88%    
  Nov 17, 2021 169   George Mason W 75-58 93%    
  Nov 19, 2021 192   Hofstra W 78-60 94%    
  Nov 25, 2021 57   Richmond W 71-66 65%    
  Dec 01, 2021 34   Virginia Tech W 68-63 67%    
  Dec 05, 2021 58   Northwestern W 71-63 74%    
  Dec 12, 2021 33   Florida W 69-67 56%    
  Dec 28, 2021 276   Loyola Maryland W 79-56 97%    
  Dec 30, 2021 237   Brown W 76-55 95%    
  Jan 03, 2022 39   @ Iowa L 71-72 50%    
  Jan 06, 2022 8   @ Illinois L 68-73 34%    
  Jan 09, 2022 43   Wisconsin W 66-60 69%    
  Jan 12, 2022 58   @ Northwestern W 68-66 56%    
  Jan 15, 2022 50   Rutgers W 69-62 71%    
  Jan 18, 2022 2   @ Michigan L 63-70 28%    
  Jan 21, 2022 8   Illinois W 71-70 53%    
  Jan 25, 2022 50   @ Rutgers W 66-65 53%    
  Jan 29, 2022 30   Indiana W 68-63 64%    
  Feb 01, 2022 24   Michigan St. W 70-66 61%    
  Feb 06, 2022 12   @ Ohio St. L 66-70 37%    
  Feb 10, 2022 39   Iowa W 75-69 67%    
  Feb 13, 2022 5   @ Purdue L 63-69 33%    
  Feb 18, 2022 75   @ Nebraska W 73-69 61%    
  Feb 21, 2022 53   Penn St. W 73-65 72%    
  Feb 24, 2022 30   @ Indiana L 65-66 45%    
  Feb 27, 2022 12   Ohio St. W 69-67 55%    
  Mar 02, 2022 106   Minnesota W 75-63 83%    
  Mar 06, 2022 24   @ Michigan St. L 67-69 43%    
Projected Record 20 - 10 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.2 2.5 2.0 1.1 0.3 9.6 1st
2nd 0.1 0.6 2.2 3.3 2.7 1.1 0.2 0.0 10.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.9 2.6 3.6 2.1 0.5 0.0 9.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 2.8 3.8 1.8 0.3 0.0 9.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.7 3.9 1.8 0.2 0.0 9.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.3 4.1 1.9 0.3 0.0 8.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.8 3.8 2.1 0.3 0.0 8.1 7th
8th 0.1 1.4 3.2 2.2 0.4 0.0 7.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.6 2.4 0.5 0.0 6.6 9th
10th 0.1 0.8 2.4 2.2 0.6 0.0 6.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.0 2.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 5.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 1.5 0.6 0.0 4.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 0.9 0.3 0.0 3.1 13th
14th 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.8 14th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.1 3.3 4.8 6.0 7.1 8.5 9.3 10.0 9.9 9.2 8.2 6.9 5.4 3.7 2.3 1.1 0.3 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
19-1 98.0% 1.1    1.0 0.1
18-2 89.3% 2.0    1.6 0.4 0.0
17-3 69.3% 2.5    1.6 0.9 0.1
16-4 40.9% 2.2    1.0 1.0 0.2 0.0
15-5 16.4% 1.1    0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 3.7% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 9.6% 9.6 5.9 2.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.3% 100.0% 57.5% 42.5% 1.1 0.3 0.0 100.0%
19-1 1.1% 100.0% 49.4% 50.6% 1.2 0.9 0.2 0.0 100.0%
18-2 2.3% 100.0% 36.9% 63.1% 1.4 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 3.7% 100.0% 30.5% 69.5% 1.6 1.9 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 5.4% 100.0% 24.9% 75.1% 2.1 1.7 2.2 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 6.9% 100.0% 16.6% 83.4% 2.8 1.0 2.0 2.0 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 8.2% 100.0% 13.1% 86.9% 3.7 0.4 1.3 2.3 1.9 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 9.2% 99.5% 8.2% 91.3% 4.8 0.1 0.5 1.6 2.0 1.9 1.4 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.5%
12-8 9.9% 97.7% 5.3% 92.3% 6.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.3 1.8 1.9 1.7 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 97.5%
11-9 10.0% 93.0% 3.2% 89.8% 7.3 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.6 1.8 1.5 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.7 92.8%
10-10 9.3% 79.5% 1.8% 77.7% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.9 79.1%
9-11 8.5% 47.9% 1.0% 46.9% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 4.4 47.4%
8-12 7.1% 18.6% 0.6% 18.0% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 5.8 18.1%
7-13 6.0% 4.6% 0.3% 4.3% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.7 4.3%
6-14 4.8% 0.8% 0.1% 0.7% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.7 0.7%
5-15 3.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.3
4-16 2.1% 2.1
3-17 1.2% 1.2
2-18 0.6% 0.6
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 69.0% 8.2% 60.8% 5.3 7.9 8.3 8.4 7.4 7.1 6.5 6.0 4.9 3.9 3.1 2.9 2.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 31.0 66.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.0 95.3 4.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.2 83.1 16.9