IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Morgan St.
Mid-Eastern
2021-22

Overall
Predictive Rating	-5.3	#256
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	75.8	#50
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-1.2	#217

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-4.1	#297

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	36.3%	48.5%	32.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.8	15.6	15.9

.500 or above	70.7%	90.3%	64.9%
.500 or above in Conference	93.6%	98.0%	92.3%
Conference Champion	46.0%	61.3%	41.5%
Last Place in Conference	0.6%	0.1%	0.7%

First Four	26.1%	26.5%	25.9%
First Round	23.1%	35.6%	19.4%
Second Round	0.6%	1.5%	0.3%
Sweet Sixteen	0.1%	0.3%	0.1%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: George Mason (Away) - 22.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	0 - 1	0 - 3
Quad 3	1 - 3	1 - 6
Quad 4	14 - 6	15 - 11

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 14, 2021	169	@ George Mason	L	71-79	23%
Nov 18, 2021	179	@ Seattle	L	74-82	25%
Nov 20, 2021	307	@ Portland	L	82-83	49%
Nov 22, 2021	67	@ San Francisco	L	68-85	8%
Nov 28, 2021	312	Grambling St.	W	78-75	61%
Nov 29, 2021	329	Hampton	W	83-78	67%
Dec 11, 2021	249	@ Longwood	L	70-73	39%
Dec 18, 2021	242	@ Mount St. Mary's	L	66-70	38%
Dec 21, 2021	172	James Madison	L	82-84	43%
Dec 23, 2021	43	@ Wisconsin	L	61-80	6%
Dec 29, 2021	89	@ Kansas St.	L	65-79	13%
Jan 08, 2022	339	@ NC Central	W	75-71	64%
Jan 10, 2022	352	@ South Carolina St.	W	86-76	79%
Jan 15, 2022	336	Coppin St.	W	90-81	77%
Jan 22, 2022	332	Howard	W	89-80	76%
Jan 24, 2022	291	@ Norfolk St.	L	74-75	46%
Jan 29, 2022	354	Delaware St.	W	93-76	91%
Jan 31, 2022	356	@ Maryland Eastern Shore	W	79-66	85%
Feb 12, 2022	339	NC Central	W	78-68	79%
Feb 14, 2022	352	South Carolina St.	W	89-73	90%
Feb 19, 2022	332	@ Howard	W	86-83	59%
Feb 21, 2022	291	Norfolk St.	W	77-72	64%
Feb 26, 2022	354	@ Delaware St.	W	90-79	81%
Feb 28, 2022	356	Maryland Eastern Shore	W	82-63	93%
Mar 03, 2022	336	@ Coppin St.	W	87-84	61%
Projected Record						14 - 11	10 - 4

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Mid-Eastern Finish

	0-14	1-13	2-12	3-11	4-10	5-9	6-8	7-7	8-6	9-5	10-4	11-3	12-2	13-1	14-0		Total
1st									0.0	0.3	2.6	8.3	14.0	13.7	7.1		46.0	1st
2nd								0.0	0.7	4.0	8.8	7.8	2.7				23.9	2nd
3rd							0.0	0.8	3.8	6.0	3.2	0.4					14.2	3rd
4th						0.0	0.7	2.9	3.4	1.1	0.0						8.2	4th
5th					0.0	0.6	1.7	1.7	0.4	0.0							4.4	5th
6th				0.1	0.4	0.9	0.7	0.1									2.2	6th
7th		0.0	0.0	0.2	0.4	0.2	0.0										0.9	7th
8th	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0											0.3	8th

Total	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.9	1.8	3.1	5.5	8.2	11.4	14.5	16.4	16.7	13.7	7.1			Total

Mid-Eastern Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
14-0	100.0%	7.1		7.1
13-1	100.0%	13.7		12.6	1.1
12-2	83.6%	14.0		9.9	4.0	0.1
11-3	50.5%	8.3		3.7	3.8	0.8	0.0
10-4	17.6%	2.6		0.5	1.2	0.7	0.1
9-5	2.9%	0.3		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0
8-6	0.1%	0.0				0.0	0.0	0.0
7-7	0.0%

Total	46.0%	46.0		33.9	10.1	1.8	0.2	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
14-0	7.1%		72.2%	72.2%		15.2									0.0		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.7	1.4	2.6	2.0
13-1	13.7%		62.7%	62.7%		15.7													0.0	0.1	0.4	1.5	6.7	5.1
12-2	16.7%		50.3%	50.3%		15.9													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.6	7.7	8.3
11-3	16.4%		39.0%	39.0%		16.0														0.0	0.0	0.1	6.2	10.0
10-4	14.5%		27.9%	27.9%		16.0																0.0	4.0	10.5
9-5	11.4%		19.1%	19.1%		16.0																	2.2	9.2
8-6	8.2%		11.7%	11.7%		16.0																	1.0	7.3
7-7	5.5%		7.9%	7.9%		16.0																	0.4	5.1
6-8	3.1%		4.2%	4.2%		16.0																	0.1	3.0
5-9	1.8%		1.8%	1.8%		16.0																	0.0	1.8
4-10	0.9%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	0.9
3-11	0.4%																							0.4
2-12	0.1%																							0.1
1-13	0.0%																							0.0
0-14	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		36.3%	36.3%	0.0%	15.8									0.0		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	1.3	3.7	31.0	63.7		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.0%	100.0%	11.4								14.9		14.9	14.9	12.8	42.6