Preseason Rankings
Northern Kentucky
Horizon
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+0.2#166
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace63.0#319
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.7#154
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.5#190
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.1% 19.3% 9.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.3% 0.6% 0.1%
Average Seed 13.8 13.5 14.5
.500 or above 74.4% 85.8% 59.6%
.500 or above in Conference 79.3% 86.9% 69.4%
Conference Champion 18.1% 23.5% 11.1%
Last Place in Conference 1.6% 0.7% 2.8%
First Four1.0% 0.9% 1.1%
First Round14.6% 18.8% 9.1%
Second Round1.9% 2.8% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.8% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UNC Greensboro (Home) - 56.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 34 - 54 - 8
Quad 414 - 419 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2021 149   UNC Greensboro W 69-67 57%    
  Nov 18, 2021 300   Eastern Michigan W 73-62 83%    
  Nov 22, 2021 274   Western Illinois W 79-70 79%    
  Nov 26, 2021 112   @ DePaul L 67-74 28%    
  Dec 02, 2021 151   @ Cleveland St. L 66-70 38%    
  Dec 04, 2021 247   @ Purdue Fort Wayne W 74-72 57%    
  Dec 08, 2021 265   Canisius W 76-67 77%    
  Dec 18, 2021 180   @ Eastern Kentucky L 75-77 43%    
  Dec 22, 2021 30   @ Indiana L 59-74 11%    
  Dec 30, 2021 316   Green Bay W 75-63 83%    
  Jan 01, 2022 205   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 74-69 66%    
  Jan 06, 2022 333   IUPUI W 81-66 88%    
  Jan 08, 2022 253   Illinois-Chicago W 72-64 75%    
  Jan 10, 2022 115   Wright St. L 72-73 48%    
  Jan 13, 2022 281   @ Youngstown St. W 72-68 61%    
  Jan 15, 2022 282   @ Robert Morris W 72-68 62%    
  Jan 20, 2022 253   @ Illinois-Chicago W 69-67 58%    
  Jan 22, 2022 333   @ IUPUI W 78-69 75%    
  Jan 28, 2022 247   Purdue Fort Wayne W 77-69 74%    
  Jan 30, 2022 151   Cleveland St. W 69-67 57%    
  Feb 03, 2022 221   Oakland W 76-70 69%    
  Feb 05, 2022 212   Detroit Mercy W 75-69 68%    
  Feb 09, 2022 205   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 71-72 48%    
  Feb 11, 2022 316   @ Green Bay W 72-66 68%    
  Feb 13, 2022 115   @ Wright St. L 69-76 30%    
  Feb 18, 2022 212   @ Detroit Mercy L 71-72 49%    
  Feb 20, 2022 221   @ Oakland W 73-72 51%    
  Feb 24, 2022 282   Robert Morris W 75-65 78%    
  Feb 26, 2022 281   Youngstown St. W 75-65 77%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 14 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.4 3.9 4.2 3.5 2.1 0.6 18.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.4 4.2 4.7 3.0 1.1 0.2 16.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.2 4.5 3.3 1.3 0.3 0.0 13.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.5 3.9 2.0 0.5 0.0 11.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.5 3.5 3.3 1.3 0.3 0.0 10.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.5 3.0 2.6 0.8 0.1 0.0 8.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.5 1.9 0.5 0.0 6.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.9 1.4 0.3 0.0 5.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.4 1.0 0.2 0.0 4.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.9 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.7 2.7 3.4 4.7 5.8 7.0 8.2 8.9 9.2 9.4 9.2 8.4 7.1 5.4 3.8 2.1 0.6 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
21-1 100.0% 2.1    2.0 0.1
20-2 93.5% 3.5    3.1 0.4 0.0
19-3 78.2% 4.2    3.1 1.1 0.1
18-4 54.5% 3.9    2.3 1.4 0.2 0.0
17-5 28.9% 2.4    1.1 1.0 0.3 0.0
16-6 11.6% 1.1    0.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
15-7 2.5% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-8 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 18.1% 18.1 12.6 4.5 0.9 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0 0.6% 78.5% 67.3% 11.2% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 34.2%
21-1 2.1% 64.8% 58.6% 6.2% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 15.0%
20-2 3.8% 47.6% 45.6% 2.0% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.0 3.7%
19-3 5.4% 40.6% 40.3% 0.3% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 3.2 0.6%
18-4 7.1% 29.9% 29.9% 13.8 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.9 0.5 0.0 5.0
17-5 8.4% 23.8% 23.8% 14.2 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.1 6.4
16-6 9.2% 18.9% 18.9% 14.6 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.2 7.4
15-7 9.4% 12.9% 12.9% 15.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 8.2
14-8 9.2% 9.6% 9.6% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 8.3
13-9 8.9% 6.3% 6.3% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 8.3
12-10 8.2% 4.6% 4.6% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 7.8
11-11 7.0% 2.7% 2.7% 15.9 0.0 0.2 6.8
10-12 5.8% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 0.1 5.7
9-13 4.7% 0.8% 0.8% 15.9 0.0 0.0 4.6
8-14 3.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 3.4
7-15 2.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.7
6-16 1.7% 1.7
5-17 1.2% 1.2
4-18 0.7% 0.7
3-19 0.4% 0.4
2-20 0.1% 0.1
1-21 0.0% 0.0
0-22 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 15.1% 14.8% 0.3% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.6 3.1 4.0 3.3 2.1 84.9 0.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 5.2 3.8 18.4 14.6 29.2 18.9 3.8 3.8 7.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 88.5% 5.6 11.5 21.3 11.5 21.3 9.8 11.5 1.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 74.1% 7.4 48.1 25.9
Lose Out 0.0%