Preseason Rankings
Oakland
Horizon
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating-3.2#221
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace72.8#95
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.2#164
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-3.4#280
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.8% 18.1% 6.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.9% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 13.3 14.5
.500 or above 36.0% 75.6% 34.3%
.500 or above in Conference 59.0% 86.1% 57.7%
Conference Champion 7.2% 20.7% 6.6%
Last Place in Conference 5.0% 0.5% 5.2%
First Four0.9% 0.8% 0.9%
First Round6.4% 17.7% 5.9%
Second Round0.6% 2.7% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.6% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: West Virginia (Away) - 4.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 31 - 6
Quad 33 - 63 - 12
Quad 410 - 513 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 32   @ West Virginia L 68-86 4%    
  Nov 12, 2021 35   @ Oklahoma St. L 70-88 5%    
  Nov 17, 2021 114   Toledo L 77-81 36%    
  Nov 19, 2021 15   @ Alabama L 72-93 4%    
  Nov 22, 2021 116   Vermont L 70-77 28%    
  Dec 02, 2021 253   @ Illinois-Chicago L 74-75 46%    
  Dec 04, 2021 333   @ IUPUI W 83-78 66%    
  Dec 07, 2021 150   @ Bowling Green L 76-84 27%    
  Dec 21, 2021 24   Michigan St. L 67-83 9%    
  Dec 30, 2021 282   Robert Morris W 79-73 70%    
  Jan 01, 2022 281   Youngstown St. W 79-73 69%    
  Jan 05, 2022 212   @ Detroit Mercy L 76-80 39%    
  Jan 07, 2022 316   Green Bay W 79-71 75%    
  Jan 09, 2022 205   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 79-77 56%    
  Jan 13, 2022 151   @ Cleveland St. L 71-78 28%    
  Jan 15, 2022 247   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 79-80 46%    
  Jan 20, 2022 205   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 76-80 37%    
  Jan 22, 2022 316   @ Green Bay W 76-74 58%    
  Jan 27, 2022 333   IUPUI W 86-75 81%    
  Jan 29, 2022 253   Illinois-Chicago W 77-72 65%    
  Feb 03, 2022 166   @ Northern Kentucky L 70-76 31%    
  Feb 05, 2022 115   @ Wright St. L 74-84 22%    
  Feb 09, 2022 281   @ Youngstown St. W 77-76 51%    
  Feb 11, 2022 282   @ Robert Morris W 77-76 51%    
  Feb 13, 2022 212   Detroit Mercy W 79-77 58%    
  Feb 18, 2022 115   Wright St. L 77-81 37%    
  Feb 20, 2022 166   Northern Kentucky L 72-73 49%    
  Feb 24, 2022 247   Purdue Fort Wayne W 82-77 64%    
  Feb 26, 2022 151   Cleveland St. L 74-75 47%    
Projected Record 13 - 16 11 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 1.8 1.6 1.2 0.5 0.2 7.2 1st
2nd 0.1 0.6 1.7 2.5 2.5 1.4 0.4 0.1 9.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.8 3.2 2.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 10.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.3 3.4 1.8 0.4 0.0 10.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.9 3.7 3.2 1.3 0.2 0.0 10.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.2 3.8 2.9 0.8 0.1 0.0 10.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.2 3.8 2.5 0.6 0.0 9.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.5 3.5 1.9 0.5 0.0 9.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.3 2.8 1.4 0.3 0.0 7.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.1 2.0 0.8 0.1 0.0 6.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.5 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 5.0 11th
12th 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 3.2 12th
Total 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.3 2.2 3.4 4.5 5.5 6.8 7.8 8.5 8.9 8.9 8.5 8.2 7.0 5.8 4.5 3.3 2.1 1.2 0.5 0.2 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
21-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
20-2 94.9% 1.2    1.0 0.1 0.0
19-3 78.8% 1.6    1.2 0.4 0.0
18-4 54.1% 1.8    1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0
17-5 27.0% 1.2    0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0
16-6 11.1% 0.6    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
15-7 2.0% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 7.2% 7.2 4.6 2.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0 0.2% 67.2% 60.9% 6.3% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 16.0%
21-1 0.5% 55.7% 51.9% 3.8% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 7.9%
20-2 1.2% 45.1% 43.3% 1.8% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 3.2%
19-3 2.1% 32.5% 32.0% 0.6% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.4 0.8%
18-4 3.3% 26.2% 26.0% 0.1% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 2.4 0.2%
17-5 4.5% 19.9% 19.8% 0.1% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 3.6 0.1%
16-6 5.8% 15.5% 15.5% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 4.9
15-7 7.0% 11.1% 11.1% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 6.2
14-8 8.2% 7.9% 7.9% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 7.5
13-9 8.5% 5.4% 5.4% 15.5 0.0 0.2 0.3 8.1
12-10 8.9% 3.9% 3.9% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 8.5
11-11 8.9% 2.3% 2.3% 15.9 0.0 0.2 8.7
10-12 8.5% 1.1% 1.1% 15.9 0.0 0.1 8.4
9-13 7.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 7.8
8-14 6.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.8
7-15 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 5.5
6-16 4.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.5
5-17 3.4% 3.4
4-18 2.2% 2.2
3-19 1.3% 1.3
2-20 0.8% 0.8
1-21 0.3% 0.3
0-22 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 6.8% 6.7% 0.1% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.7 1.9 1.6 93.2 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%