Preseason Rankings
Oklahoma
Big 12
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+11.2#40
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace67.2#232
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+4.7#54
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.5#31
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
#1 Seed 2.4% 2.4% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 5.6% 5.6% 0.3%
Top 4 Seed 14.0% 14.1% 1.2%
Top 6 Seed 23.5% 23.6% 2.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 47.1% 47.4% 9.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 43.3% 43.6% 9.0%
Average Seed 6.5 6.5 8.2
.500 or above 71.2% 71.5% 23.5%
.500 or above in Conference 53.6% 53.8% 18.0%
Conference Champion 7.4% 7.4% 0.9%
Last Place in Conference 7.1% 7.0% 24.2%
First Four3.4% 3.4% 0.9%
First Round45.6% 45.8% 8.1%
Second Round29.6% 29.8% 4.1%
Sweet Sixteen14.4% 14.5% 1.9%
Elite Eight6.7% 6.8% 0.6%
Final Four3.0% 3.1% 0.0%
Championship Game1.3% 1.3% 0.0%
National Champion0.6% 0.6% 0.0%

Next Game: Northwestern St. (Home) - 99.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 9
Quad 24 - 38 - 12
Quad 34 - 112 - 13
Quad 45 - 018 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 338   Northwestern St. W 87-61 99%    
  Nov 12, 2021 207   Texas San Antonio W 83-67 93%    
  Nov 18, 2021 183   East Carolina W 75-63 85%    
  Nov 24, 2021 348   Houston Baptist W 92-63 99%    
  Nov 27, 2021 68   @ Central Florida L 68-69 50%    
  Dec 01, 2021 33   Florida W 72-70 57%    
  Dec 07, 2021 64   Butler W 69-63 68%    
  Dec 11, 2021 17   Arkansas L 73-76 41%    
  Dec 19, 2021 224   Texas Arlington W 79-61 92%    
  Dec 22, 2021 347   Alcorn St. W 85-56 99%    
  Jan 01, 2022 89   Kansas St. W 70-62 74%    
  Jan 04, 2022 9   @ Baylor L 66-74 27%    
  Jan 08, 2022 127   Iowa St. W 77-66 82%    
  Jan 11, 2022 7   @ Texas L 66-74 26%    
  Jan 15, 2022 80   @ TCU W 69-68 54%    
  Jan 18, 2022 4   Kansas L 69-72 41%    
  Jan 22, 2022 9   Baylor L 69-71 44%    
  Jan 26, 2022 32   @ West Virginia L 70-74 38%    
  Jan 29, 2022 26   @ Auburn L 72-76 37%    
  Jan 31, 2022 80   TCU W 72-65 72%    
  Feb 05, 2022 35   @ Oklahoma St. L 71-75 39%    
  Feb 09, 2022 21   Texas Tech W 66-65 52%    
  Feb 12, 2022 4   @ Kansas L 66-75 24%    
  Feb 15, 2022 7   Texas L 69-71 44%    
  Feb 19, 2022 127   @ Iowa St. W 74-69 66%    
  Feb 22, 2022 21   @ Texas Tech L 63-68 33%    
  Feb 26, 2022 35   Oklahoma St. W 74-72 58%    
  Mar 01, 2022 32   West Virginia W 73-71 57%    
  Mar 05, 2022 89   @ Kansas St. W 67-65 56%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.9 2.0 1.5 0.7 0.2 7.4 1st
2nd 0.1 0.6 2.1 3.1 2.2 0.8 0.1 9.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.1 3.3 3.9 1.9 0.3 0.0 10.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.2 4.1 1.5 0.1 0.0 11.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.3 5.0 3.9 1.0 0.1 12.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 3.0 5.3 3.4 0.8 0.0 13.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.3 4.7 2.6 0.5 0.0 12.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.4 3.8 1.6 0.2 0.0 10.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 1.8 2.7 2.1 0.8 0.1 8.0 9th
10th 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 4.3 10th
Total 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.4 5.0 6.6 8.5 9.8 10.6 10.8 10.1 9.0 7.8 6.1 4.5 2.8 1.6 0.7 0.2 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 0.7    0.6 0.0
16-2 94.1% 1.5    1.3 0.2 0.0
15-3 70.9% 2.0    1.3 0.6 0.1
14-4 42.4% 1.9    0.9 0.8 0.2 0.0
13-5 15.1% 0.9    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0
12-6 2.9% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 7.4% 7.4 4.5 2.2 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 100.0% 50.8% 49.2% 1.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.7% 100.0% 50.1% 49.9% 1.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 1.6% 100.0% 39.1% 60.9% 1.8 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 2.8% 99.9% 30.0% 69.9% 2.6 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
14-4 4.5% 99.7% 23.0% 76.7% 3.5 0.3 0.9 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6%
13-5 6.1% 99.4% 16.6% 82.7% 4.7 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.3 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.2%
12-6 7.8% 96.0% 11.1% 84.9% 6.1 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.0 1.4 1.3 1.2 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 95.5%
11-7 9.0% 88.2% 7.8% 80.4% 7.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.1 87.2%
10-8 10.1% 73.8% 4.8% 69.0% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.0 0.9 0.4 0.1 2.6 72.5%
9-9 10.8% 49.5% 3.3% 46.2% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 5.5 47.7%
8-10 10.6% 21.7% 2.2% 19.5% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 8.3 19.9%
7-11 9.8% 6.6% 1.1% 5.5% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.2 5.6%
6-12 8.5% 1.5% 0.5% 1.0% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.4 1.0%
5-13 6.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.6 0.1%
4-14 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 5.0
3-15 3.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.4
2-16 1.7% 1.7
1-17 0.7% 0.7
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 47.1% 6.7% 40.4% 6.5 2.4 3.2 4.1 4.3 4.7 4.8 4.9 5.0 4.1 3.6 3.3 2.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 52.9 43.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.1 94.0 6.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.3 68.7 31.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0