IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Oklahoma St.
Big 12
2021-22

Overall
Predictive Rating	+11.8	#35
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	77.3	#30
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+5.4	#44

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+6.4	#33

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	1.0%	1.0%	0.1%
#1 Seed	4.2%	4.3%	0.1%
Top 2 Seed	9.4%	9.7%	0.7%
Top 4 Seed	20.4%	21.2%	2.2%
Top 6 Seed	31.5%	32.6%	5.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid	55.6%	57.2%	19.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	51.8%	53.4%	18.1%
Average Seed	6.0	6.0	8.0

.500 or above	74.3%	76.0%	35.5%
.500 or above in Conference	58.0%	59.4%	28.0%
Conference Champion	8.7%	9.0%	1.4%
Last Place in Conference	5.8%	5.3%	18.1%

First Four	3.6%	3.6%	3.2%
First Round	53.9%	55.5%	17.7%
Second Round	35.9%	37.1%	9.0%
Sweet Sixteen	18.1%	18.8%	3.8%
Elite Eight	8.7%	9.0%	1.2%
Final Four	4.0%	4.1%	0.5%
Championship Game	1.8%	1.8%	0.2%
National Champion	0.8%	0.8%	0.1%

Next Game: Texas Arlington (Home) - 95.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	2 - 6	2 - 6
Quad 1b	2 - 3	4 - 9
Quad 2	5 - 3	9 - 12
Quad 3	5 - 1	14 - 13
Quad 4	5 - 0	19 - 13

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 09, 2021	224	Texas Arlington	W	84-66	96%
Nov 12, 2021	221	Oakland	W	88-70	95%
Nov 14, 2021	232	Prairie View	W	84-65	95%
Nov 16, 2021	258	Umass Lowell	W	86-69	93%
Nov 17, 2021	59	North Carolina St.	W	76-73	59%
Nov 22, 2021	235	College of Charleston	W	81-62	94%
Nov 26, 2021	154	@ Oral Roberts	W	86-78	76%
Dec 01, 2021	54	Wichita St.	W	76-70	68%
Dec 05, 2021	37	Xavier	W	78-75	60%
Dec 13, 2021	151	Cleveland St.	W	81-67	87%
Dec 18, 2021	13	Houston	L	68-71	40%
Dec 21, 2021	20	USC	L	72-74	44%
Jan 01, 2022	21	@ Texas Tech	L	68-73	35%
Jan 04, 2022	4	Kansas	L	75-77	43%
Jan 08, 2022	7	Texas	L	75-76	46%
Jan 11, 2022	32	@ West Virginia	L	76-79	40%
Jan 15, 2022	9	@ Baylor	L	72-79	28%
Jan 19, 2022	80	TCU	W	78-70	74%
Jan 22, 2022	7	@ Texas	L	72-79	28%
Jan 26, 2022	127	Iowa St.	W	83-71	83%
Jan 29, 2022	33	@ Florida	L	74-77	40%
Feb 02, 2022	89	@ Kansas St.	W	72-69	59%
Feb 05, 2022	40	Oklahoma	W	75-71	61%
Feb 08, 2022	80	@ TCU	W	75-73	56%
Feb 12, 2022	32	West Virginia	W	79-76	59%
Feb 14, 2022	4	@ Kansas	L	72-80	26%
Feb 19, 2022	89	Kansas St.	W	75-66	76%
Feb 21, 2022	9	Baylor	L	75-76	47%
Feb 26, 2022	40	@ Oklahoma	L	72-74	42%
Mar 02, 2022	127	@ Iowa St.	W	80-74	68%
Mar 05, 2022	21	Texas Tech	W	71-70	54%
Projected Record						19 - 12	9 - 9

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big 12 Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.3	1.1	2.2	2.4	1.8	0.8	0.2		8.7	1st
2nd											0.0	0.6	2.4	3.6	2.7	1.0	0.1				10.5	2nd
3rd									0.0	0.1	1.2	3.5	4.4	2.2	0.4	0.0					11.8	3rd
4th								0.0	0.2	1.7	4.4	4.5	1.5	0.2	0.0						12.4	4th
5th							0.0	0.4	2.3	5.0	3.9	1.1	0.1								12.8	5th
6th						0.0	0.5	2.8	5.0	3.4	0.8	0.0									12.6	6th
7th				0.0	0.1	0.8	3.2	4.5	2.5	0.4	0.0										11.6	7th
8th			0.0	0.2	1.3	2.9	3.3	1.5	0.3	0.0											9.5	8th
9th		0.0	0.4	1.5	2.3	1.8	0.6	0.1	0.0												6.7	9th
10th	0.1	0.6	1.0	0.9	0.6	0.2	0.0														3.4	10th

Total	0.1	0.6	1.4	2.6	4.3	5.8	7.7	9.2	10.3	10.7	10.3	9.7	8.6	7.1	5.3	3.4	1.9	0.8	0.2			Total

Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.2		0.2
17-1	100.0%	0.8		0.8	0.0
16-2	92.7%	1.8		1.5	0.2	0.0
15-3	71.0%	2.4		1.5	0.8	0.1	0.0
14-4	40.7%	2.2		1.0	1.0	0.2	0.0
13-5	15.2%	1.1		0.2	0.5	0.3	0.1	0.0
12-6	2.9%	0.3		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.1%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	8.7%	8.7		5.3	2.6	0.7	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.2%		100.0%	63.5%	36.5%	1.2		0.2	0.0	0.0																100.0%
17-1	0.8%		100.0%	51.2%	48.8%	1.3		0.6	0.2	0.0	0.0															100.0%
16-2	1.9%		100.0%	38.6%	61.4%	1.6		1.1	0.6	0.2	0.0	0.0		0.0												100.0%
15-3	3.4%		99.9%	31.9%	68.1%	2.2		1.1	1.3	0.6	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0		0.0								0.0		99.9%
14-4	5.3%		99.9%	24.3%	75.6%	3.0		0.8	1.5	1.3	0.9	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0							0.0		99.9%
13-5	7.1%		99.4%	16.7%	82.7%	4.0		0.3	1.1	1.6	1.5	1.0	0.7	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0					0.0		99.3%
12-6	8.6%		98.0%	11.6%	86.4%	5.4		0.1	0.4	1.2	1.5	1.5	1.4	1.0	0.6	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0				0.2		97.8%
11-7	9.7%		92.9%	7.8%	85.0%	6.7		0.0	0.1	0.4	0.9	1.3	1.6	1.5	1.3	0.9	0.5	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0			0.7		92.3%
10-8	10.3%		80.7%	5.1%	75.6%	7.9		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.8	1.1	1.3	1.4	1.2	1.0	0.7	0.3	0.0	0.0			2.0		79.7%
9-9	10.7%		61.1%	3.9%	57.2%	8.9			0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.5	0.7	1.1	1.1	1.0	1.0	0.6	0.1	0.0			4.1		59.5%
8-10	10.3%		31.5%	2.3%	29.2%	10.1					0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.5	0.6	0.7	0.7	0.1	0.0	0.0		7.1		29.9%
7-11	9.2%		12.0%	0.9%	11.1%	10.9							0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.1	0.0		0.0	8.1		11.2%
6-12	7.7%		3.2%	0.6%	2.6%	11.7									0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	7.4		2.6%
5-13	5.8%		0.4%	0.1%	0.3%	12.0												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		5.8		0.3%
4-14	4.3%		0.1%		0.1%	12.0													0.0					4.3		0.1%
3-15	2.6%																							2.6
2-16	1.4%																							1.4
1-17	0.6%																							0.6
0-18	0.1%																							0.1

Total	100%		55.6%	7.9%	47.7%	6.0		4.2	5.2	5.5	5.5	5.6	5.5	5.3	5.0	4.3	3.5	3.3	2.2	0.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	44.4		51.8%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.1%	100.0%	1.2	83.6	16.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.0%	100.0%	1.0	98.2	1.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.0%	100.0%	1.0	100.0