Preseason Rankings
Oregon
Pac-12
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+13.7#19
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace67.4#227
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+8.4#13
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.4#48
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.7% 1.8% 0.1%
#1 Seed 7.6% 7.8% 0.5%
Top 2 Seed 15.4% 15.9% 1.8%
Top 4 Seed 29.9% 30.8% 6.1%
Top 6 Seed 42.9% 44.2% 10.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 70.1% 71.6% 31.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 64.8% 66.4% 28.5%
Average Seed 5.6 5.6 7.6
.500 or above 86.5% 87.8% 53.7%
.500 or above in Conference 79.1% 80.2% 51.0%
Conference Champion 18.5% 19.0% 5.9%
Last Place in Conference 1.8% 1.6% 7.2%
First Four3.8% 3.8% 4.2%
First Round68.3% 69.8% 29.7%
Second Round48.2% 49.4% 16.6%
Sweet Sixteen26.2% 27.0% 6.3%
Elite Eight13.5% 13.9% 3.1%
Final Four6.7% 6.9% 1.4%
Championship Game3.3% 3.4% 0.7%
National Champion1.6% 1.6% 0.2%

Next Game: Texas Southern (Home) - 96.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 42 - 4
Quad 1b3 - 25 - 6
Quad 26 - 210 - 9
Quad 36 - 116 - 10
Quad 44 - 020 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 211   Texas Southern W 86-67 96%    
  Nov 12, 2021 62   SMU W 79-71 76%    
  Nov 16, 2021 38   BYU W 75-72 58%    
  Nov 29, 2021 161   Montana W 78-62 91%    
  Dec 01, 2021 148   UC Riverside W 77-62 90%    
  Dec 05, 2021 61   Arizona St. W 82-74 74%    
  Dec 12, 2021 71   @ Stanford W 73-70 59%    
  Dec 15, 2021 307   Portland W 90-65 98%    
  Dec 18, 2021 9   Baylor W 73-72 52%    
  Dec 21, 2021 147   Pepperdine W 84-69 89%    
  Dec 30, 2021 47   Colorado W 72-66 70%    
  Jan 01, 2022 88   Utah W 78-67 81%    
  Jan 08, 2022 70   @ Oregon St. W 71-68 58%    
  Jan 13, 2022 3   @ UCLA L 65-72 30%    
  Jan 15, 2022 20   @ USC L 69-72 41%    
  Jan 20, 2022 69   Washington St. W 75-66 75%    
  Jan 23, 2022 95   Washington W 81-70 81%    
  Jan 29, 2022 70   Oregon St. W 74-65 75%    
  Feb 03, 2022 47   @ Colorado W 70-69 51%    
  Feb 05, 2022 88   @ Utah W 75-70 64%    
  Feb 10, 2022 71   Stanford W 76-67 75%    
  Feb 12, 2022 113   California W 74-61 84%    
  Feb 17, 2022 61   @ Arizona St. W 79-77 56%    
  Feb 19, 2022 31   @ Arizona L 72-73 45%    
  Feb 24, 2022 3   UCLA L 68-69 48%    
  Feb 26, 2022 20   USC W 72-69 60%    
  Mar 03, 2022 95   @ Washington W 78-73 66%    
  Mar 05, 2022 69   @ Washington St. W 72-69 57%    
Projected Record 19 - 9 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.9 3.8 4.7 4.1 2.5 0.8 18.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.7 5.1 4.0 1.8 0.3 0.0 16.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.0 4.3 4.6 2.4 0.6 0.0 14.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.1 4.2 3.5 1.3 0.2 0.0 11.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.0 3.8 2.9 0.7 0.1 9.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.5 2.4 0.5 0.0 8.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.7 1.9 0.4 0.0 6.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.2 1.5 0.4 0.0 5.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.6 1.1 0.2 0.0 4.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.7 2.5 3.6 5.0 6.2 8.0 9.0 9.8 9.9 10.2 9.6 8.4 6.5 4.4 2.5 0.8 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.8    0.8
19-1 99.7% 2.5    2.4 0.1
18-2 92.8% 4.1    3.4 0.7 0.0
17-3 72.2% 4.7    3.3 1.3 0.1
16-4 45.5% 3.8    2.0 1.5 0.3 0.0
15-5 19.8% 1.9    0.6 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
14-6 5.8% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 18.5% 18.5 12.7 4.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.8% 100.0% 66.8% 33.2% 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
19-1 2.5% 100.0% 54.1% 45.9% 1.3 1.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 4.4% 100.0% 44.5% 55.5% 1.7 2.2 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 6.5% 100.0% 36.2% 63.8% 2.4 1.8 2.1 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 8.4% 99.8% 28.5% 71.3% 3.3 0.9 2.0 2.1 1.7 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
15-5 9.6% 99.6% 22.8% 76.8% 4.5 0.2 1.0 1.9 2.2 1.8 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.5%
14-6 10.2% 98.1% 16.1% 82.0% 5.9 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.5 1.9 1.9 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 97.8%
13-7 9.9% 94.2% 11.4% 82.7% 7.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.2 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.6 93.4%
12-8 9.8% 83.7% 7.3% 76.4% 8.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.5 1.4 1.2 0.9 0.4 0.0 1.6 82.4%
11-9 9.0% 65.3% 5.1% 60.2% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.1 63.4%
10-10 8.0% 41.8% 2.9% 38.9% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 4.7 40.0%
9-11 6.2% 15.4% 1.0% 14.4% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 5.2 14.6%
8-12 5.0% 4.1% 0.7% 3.4% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.8 3.5%
7-13 3.6% 1.0% 0.6% 0.4% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.5 0.4%
6-14 2.5% 0.3% 0.3% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.5
5-15 1.7% 1.7
4-16 1.0% 1.0
3-17 0.6% 0.6
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 70.1% 15.1% 55.0% 5.6 7.6 7.8 7.3 7.1 6.6 6.5 5.8 5.6 5.0 4.3 3.7 2.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 29.9 64.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 1.1 85.2 14.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.4 66.7 30.3 3.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.4 61.9 38.1