Preseason Rankings
Oregon St.
Pac-12
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+8.1#70
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace63.5#314
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+4.7#52
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.4#82
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.8% 0.8% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 2.0% 2.2% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 6.0% 6.6% 0.4%
Top 6 Seed 11.4% 12.3% 1.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 31.9% 34.2% 8.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 29.1% 31.2% 7.7%
Average Seed 7.6 7.5 9.1
.500 or above 62.8% 66.3% 27.6%
.500 or above in Conference 43.6% 46.1% 18.6%
Conference Champion 4.2% 4.6% 0.8%
Last Place in Conference 11.3% 9.8% 25.9%
First Four3.6% 3.8% 1.7%
First Round30.0% 32.2% 7.6%
Second Round17.1% 18.4% 3.4%
Sweet Sixteen7.0% 7.6% 1.0%
Elite Eight2.9% 3.2% 0.3%
Final Four1.2% 1.3% 0.1%
Championship Game0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
National Champion0.2% 0.2% 0.0%

Next Game: Portland St. (Home) - 91.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 8
Quad 24 - 47 - 12
Quad 35 - 212 - 14
Quad 45 - 017 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 220   Portland St. W 78-64 91%    
  Nov 12, 2021 127   @ Iowa St. W 72-70 58%    
  Nov 15, 2021 108   @ Tulsa W 66-65 52%    
  Nov 18, 2021 255   Samford W 84-68 92%    
  Nov 21, 2021 168   Princeton W 75-64 83%    
  Nov 26, 2021 103   Wake Forest W 70-67 61%    
  Dec 02, 2021 113   @ California W 65-64 54%    
  Dec 05, 2021 31   Arizona L 69-70 47%    
  Dec 11, 2021 287   Sacramento St. W 75-57 93%    
  Dec 14, 2021 208   UC Davis W 77-64 86%    
  Dec 18, 2021 94   Texas A&M W 68-63 67%    
  Dec 21, 2021 230   Nicholls St. W 81-66 88%    
  Dec 30, 2021 88   Utah W 72-67 66%    
  Jan 01, 2022 47   Colorado W 67-66 52%    
  Jan 08, 2022 19   Oregon L 68-71 42%    
  Jan 13, 2022 20   @ USC L 63-71 25%    
  Jan 15, 2022 3   @ UCLA L 60-72 17%    
  Jan 20, 2022 95   Washington W 75-69 67%    
  Jan 22, 2022 69   Washington St. W 69-66 59%    
  Jan 29, 2022 19   @ Oregon L 65-74 25%    
  Feb 03, 2022 88   @ Utah L 69-70 47%    
  Feb 05, 2022 47   @ Colorado L 64-69 34%    
  Feb 09, 2022 113   California W 68-61 71%    
  Feb 12, 2022 71   Stanford W 70-67 60%    
  Feb 17, 2022 31   @ Arizona L 66-73 29%    
  Feb 19, 2022 61   @ Arizona St. L 73-77 39%    
  Feb 24, 2022 20   USC L 66-68 43%    
  Feb 26, 2022 3   UCLA L 63-69 31%    
  Mar 03, 2022 69   @ Washington St. L 66-69 40%    
  Mar 05, 2022 95   @ Washington L 72-73 49%    
Projected Record 17 - 13 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.1 4.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.7 1.7 1.0 0.3 0.0 5.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.5 2.1 0.8 0.1 7.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.1 2.2 0.6 0.1 8.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.2 3.7 2.2 0.5 0.0 9.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.4 4.0 2.3 0.4 0.0 9.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.5 4.1 2.3 0.4 0.0 9.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 2.6 4.1 2.4 0.4 0.0 10.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 2.7 4.0 2.2 0.4 0.0 10.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.9 3.6 1.9 0.3 0.0 10.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 1.5 2.7 2.8 1.2 0.2 0.0 8.9 11th
12th 0.3 1.0 1.8 2.0 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 7.2 12th
Total 0.3 1.0 2.3 3.6 5.2 7.0 8.3 9.3 9.6 9.7 9.2 8.4 7.3 6.1 4.6 3.3 2.3 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
18-2 94.8% 0.7    0.6 0.1
17-3 76.1% 1.0    0.7 0.3 0.0
16-4 49.3% 1.1    0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
15-5 23.0% 0.8    0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 5.4% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 4.2% 4.2 2.5 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 32.5% 67.5% 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.3% 100.0% 43.8% 56.2% 1.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.7% 100.0% 36.4% 63.6% 2.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 1.3% 100.0% 30.6% 69.3% 2.9 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 2.3% 99.6% 22.7% 76.9% 3.9 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.5%
15-5 3.3% 98.5% 16.6% 81.9% 5.2 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.2%
14-6 4.6% 96.3% 12.8% 83.5% 6.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 95.8%
13-7 6.1% 89.1% 7.9% 81.2% 7.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.7 88.2%
12-8 7.3% 75.1% 6.1% 69.0% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.3 0.0 1.8 73.5%
11-9 8.4% 53.3% 3.0% 50.3% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 3.9 51.9%
10-10 9.2% 31.2% 2.2% 28.9% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 6.3 29.6%
9-11 9.7% 10.1% 1.2% 8.9% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 8.8 9.0%
8-12 9.6% 2.7% 0.6% 2.1% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.3 2.1%
7-13 9.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.2 0.1%
6-14 8.3% 0.1% 0.1% 13.4 0.0 0.0 8.3
5-15 7.0% 0.1% 0.1% 14.5 0.0 0.0 7.0
4-16 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 5.2
3-17 3.6% 3.6
2-18 2.3% 2.3
1-19 1.0% 1.0
0-20 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 31.9% 4.1% 27.9% 7.6 0.8 1.3 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.9 3.2 3.5 3.7 3.7 3.7 2.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 68.1 29.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.1 88.0 12.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.6 70.0 30.0