Preseason Rankings
Providence
Big East
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+8.5#65
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace65.8#267
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.6#70
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.9#55
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.9% 1.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 2.4% 2.5% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 6.6% 7.0% 0.4%
Top 6 Seed 12.4% 13.0% 1.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 33.7% 35.2% 8.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 29.9% 31.3% 7.4%
Average Seed 7.5 7.4 8.9
.500 or above 62.1% 64.4% 23.8%
.500 or above in Conference 46.8% 48.5% 19.4%
Conference Champion 5.8% 6.0% 1.0%
Last Place in Conference 11.3% 10.3% 28.6%
First Four3.4% 3.5% 1.3%
First Round32.0% 33.4% 7.6%
Second Round17.9% 18.8% 3.5%
Sweet Sixteen7.3% 7.7% 1.0%
Elite Eight3.0% 3.2% 0.4%
Final Four1.2% 1.3% 0.1%
Championship Game0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
National Champion0.2% 0.2% 0.0%

Next Game: Fairfield (Home) - 94.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 8
Quad 24 - 47 - 12
Quad 35 - 212 - 14
Quad 45 - 017 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 260   Fairfield W 72-55 94%    
  Nov 11, 2021 288   Sacred Heart W 78-60 95%    
  Nov 15, 2021 43   @ Wisconsin L 62-67 33%    
  Nov 18, 2021 241   New Hampshire W 75-59 92%    
  Nov 22, 2021 58   Northwestern L 69-70 48%    
  Nov 27, 2021 191   St. Peter's W 71-58 86%    
  Dec 01, 2021 21   Texas Tech L 65-67 44%    
  Dec 04, 2021 101   Rhode Island W 73-67 70%    
  Dec 07, 2021 116   Vermont W 71-63 74%    
  Dec 11, 2021 346   Central Connecticut St. W 86-60 98%    
  Dec 18, 2021 25   @ Connecticut L 62-70 27%    
  Dec 22, 2021 86   Georgetown W 73-68 66%    
  Dec 29, 2021 41   Seton Hall W 69-68 51%    
  Jan 01, 2022 112   @ DePaul W 71-70 54%    
  Jan 04, 2022 78   @ Marquette L 68-70 45%    
  Jan 08, 2022 52   St. John's W 76-74 56%    
  Jan 11, 2022 48   @ Creighton L 68-72 36%    
  Jan 15, 2022 25   Connecticut L 65-67 45%    
  Jan 18, 2022 41   @ Seton Hall L 65-71 33%    
  Jan 23, 2022 64   Butler W 67-64 59%    
  Jan 26, 2022 37   @ Xavier L 67-73 31%    
  Jan 29, 2022 78   Marquette W 71-67 64%    
  Feb 01, 2022 52   @ St. John's L 73-77 37%    
  Feb 06, 2022 86   @ Georgetown L 70-71 48%    
  Feb 12, 2022 112   DePaul W 74-67 72%    
  Feb 15, 2022 6   Villanova L 64-69 35%    
  Feb 20, 2022 64   @ Butler L 64-67 40%    
  Feb 23, 2022 37   Xavier L 70-71 50%    
  Feb 26, 2022 48   Creighton W 71-69 55%    
  Mar 01, 2022 6   @ Villanova L 61-72 20%    
Projected Record 17 - 13 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.4 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.1 5.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.3 2.1 1.1 0.3 0.0 7.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 2.2 3.1 2.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 8.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.9 3.5 1.7 0.4 0.0 9.3 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 3.4 3.7 1.5 0.2 0.0 10.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.7 3.8 1.3 0.1 0.0 10.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.8 3.7 1.2 0.1 10.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.9 3.9 3.4 1.0 0.1 0.0 10.6 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 2.3 3.8 2.7 0.8 0.1 10.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.6 3.0 1.7 0.5 0.0 0.0 9.3 10th
11th 0.3 0.9 1.7 2.0 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 7.4 11th
Total 0.3 0.9 2.0 3.3 4.9 6.4 7.8 8.7 9.3 9.7 9.4 8.7 7.7 6.4 5.3 3.8 2.7 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.1 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.4    0.3 0.0
18-2 95.8% 0.8    0.7 0.1
17-3 80.2% 1.3    1.0 0.3 0.0
16-4 53.9% 1.4    0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0
15-5 27.6% 1.1    0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
14-6 10.7% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0
13-7 2.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 5.8% 5.8 3.6 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 55.6% 44.4% 1.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.4% 100.0% 53.0% 47.0% 1.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.9% 100.0% 40.9% 59.1% 2.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 1.7% 100.0% 31.9% 68.1% 3.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 2.7% 99.6% 25.0% 74.7% 4.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.5%
15-5 3.8% 98.9% 19.9% 78.9% 5.4 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.6%
14-6 5.3% 94.4% 13.5% 80.9% 6.7 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 93.6%
13-7 6.4% 86.1% 9.3% 76.8% 7.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.9 84.7%
12-8 7.7% 71.2% 7.0% 64.2% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.4 0.0 0.0 2.2 69.0%
11-9 8.7% 50.1% 5.2% 45.0% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.1 4.3 47.4%
10-10 9.4% 28.4% 3.5% 24.9% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.1 6.7 25.8%
9-11 9.7% 10.6% 1.6% 9.0% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 8.7 9.1%
8-12 9.3% 2.7% 0.9% 1.8% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.0 1.8%
7-13 8.7% 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.6 0.2%
6-14 7.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.8 0.0%
5-15 6.4% 0.2% 0.2% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.3
4-16 4.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 4.9
3-17 3.3% 3.3
2-18 2.0% 2.0
1-19 0.9% 0.9
0-20 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 33.7% 5.5% 28.2% 7.5 0.9 1.4 2.0 2.2 2.7 3.1 3.5 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.6 2.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 66.3 29.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.1 87.5 12.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0