Preseason Rankings
Purdue
Big Ten
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+16.7#5
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace65.3#276
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+8.7#10
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+8.1#8
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 5.6% 5.8% 1.0%
#1 Seed 18.5% 19.0% 3.0%
Top 2 Seed 32.3% 33.2% 7.1%
Top 4 Seed 51.9% 53.2% 16.3%
Top 6 Seed 65.7% 67.0% 28.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 83.6% 84.7% 52.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 80.6% 81.8% 50.1%
Average Seed 4.2 4.1 6.3
.500 or above 91.3% 92.2% 65.8%
.500 or above in Conference 80.9% 81.9% 54.2%
Conference Champion 20.2% 20.7% 6.2%
Last Place in Conference 1.3% 1.1% 5.5%
First Four2.3% 2.3% 3.9%
First Round82.6% 83.7% 50.8%
Second Round66.7% 67.8% 33.8%
Sweet Sixteen42.6% 43.6% 15.0%
Elite Eight25.2% 25.8% 7.3%
Final Four14.1% 14.5% 3.3%
Championship Game7.6% 7.8% 1.7%
National Champion3.9% 4.1% 0.8%

Next Game: Bellarmine (Home) - 96.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 54 - 5
Quad 1b4 - 28 - 7
Quad 26 - 214 - 9
Quad 34 - 018 - 9
Quad 44 - 023 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 165   Bellarmine W 78-59 97%    
  Nov 12, 2021 176   Indiana St. W 78-58 97%    
  Nov 16, 2021 115   Wright St. W 81-65 92%    
  Nov 20, 2021 22   North Carolina W 76-73 61%    
  Nov 26, 2021 326   Nebraska Omaha W 88-58 99%    
  Nov 30, 2021 18   Florida St. W 74-68 69%    
  Dec 03, 2021 39   Iowa W 79-70 76%    
  Dec 09, 2021 50   @ Rutgers W 70-66 62%    
  Dec 12, 2021 59   North Carolina St. W 74-66 73%    
  Dec 18, 2021 64   Butler W 70-62 75%    
  Dec 20, 2021 345   Incarnate Word W 84-51 99.6%   
  Dec 29, 2021 230   Nicholls St. W 86-63 97%    
  Jan 03, 2022 43   Wisconsin W 69-60 77%    
  Jan 08, 2022 53   @ Penn St. W 73-69 64%    
  Jan 11, 2022 2   @ Michigan L 66-71 35%    
  Jan 14, 2022 75   Nebraska W 80-68 84%    
  Jan 17, 2022 8   @ Illinois L 72-74 43%    
  Jan 20, 2022 30   @ Indiana W 68-67 54%    
  Jan 23, 2022 58   Northwestern W 75-64 80%    
  Jan 27, 2022 39   @ Iowa W 76-73 58%    
  Jan 30, 2022 12   Ohio St. W 73-68 64%    
  Feb 02, 2022 106   @ Minnesota W 76-67 76%    
  Feb 05, 2022 2   Michigan W 69-68 54%    
  Feb 10, 2022 8   Illinois W 75-71 61%    
  Feb 13, 2022 16   Maryland W 69-63 67%    
  Feb 16, 2022 58   @ Northwestern W 72-67 65%    
  Feb 20, 2022 50   Rutgers W 73-63 78%    
  Feb 26, 2022 24   @ Michigan St. W 70-69 51%    
  Mar 01, 2022 43   @ Wisconsin W 66-63 59%    
  Mar 05, 2022 30   Indiana W 71-64 72%    
Projected Record 21 - 9 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.7 3.9 5.3 4.9 2.9 1.1 20.2 1st
2nd 0.1 0.7 2.7 5.0 4.0 2.0 0.4 0.0 14.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.9 3.1 4.6 2.8 0.8 0.1 12.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 2.8 4.1 2.3 0.5 0.0 10.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.4 3.7 1.8 0.3 0.0 8.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.8 3.4 1.7 0.2 0.0 7.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.2 2.9 1.9 0.3 0.0 6.5 7th
8th 0.1 0.8 2.3 1.7 0.3 0.0 5.1 8th
9th 0.1 0.5 1.7 1.7 0.4 0.0 4.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 3.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.1 0.4 0.0 2.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.0 0.0 2.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.7 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.5 2.3 3.3 4.5 5.9 7.2 8.7 9.4 10.0 10.4 10.0 8.8 7.4 5.3 2.9 1.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 1.1    1.1
19-1 99.2% 2.9    2.8 0.1
18-2 93.2% 4.9    4.1 0.8 0.0
17-3 72.0% 5.3    3.4 1.7 0.2
16-4 44.5% 3.9    1.9 1.5 0.5 0.0 0.0
15-5 16.9% 1.7    0.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
14-6 4.3% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 20.2% 20.2 13.7 5.0 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 1.1% 100.0% 66.4% 33.6% 1.1 1.0 0.1 100.0%
19-1 2.9% 100.0% 53.2% 46.8% 1.1 2.5 0.3 0.0 100.0%
18-2 5.3% 100.0% 43.0% 57.0% 1.2 4.1 1.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 7.4% 100.0% 34.8% 65.2% 1.5 4.5 2.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 8.8% 100.0% 28.4% 71.6% 1.9 3.4 3.4 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 10.0% 100.0% 20.7% 79.3% 2.6 2.0 3.5 2.6 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 10.4% 99.9% 15.4% 84.6% 3.4 0.7 2.0 3.1 2.3 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-7 10.0% 99.7% 10.5% 89.2% 4.5 0.2 0.9 2.1 2.3 2.0 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
12-8 9.4% 98.3% 5.8% 92.6% 5.7 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.5 1.8 1.9 1.4 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 98.2%
11-9 8.7% 94.0% 4.0% 90.0% 6.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.2 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.5 93.8%
10-10 7.2% 83.2% 2.8% 80.4% 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.2 82.7%
9-11 5.9% 53.9% 1.9% 51.9% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.7 53.0%
8-12 4.5% 24.7% 0.8% 23.9% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 3.4 24.1%
7-13 3.3% 7.5% 0.5% 7.0% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 3.1 7.0%
6-14 2.3% 0.9% 0.2% 0.7% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3 0.7%
5-15 1.5% 0.2% 0.2% 12.0 0.0 1.5 0.2%
4-16 0.9% 0.2% 0.2% 15.0 0.0 0.9
3-17 0.4% 0.4
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 83.6% 15.5% 68.0% 4.2 18.5 13.8 11.0 8.6 7.5 6.4 5.2 3.9 2.9 2.2 2.0 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 16.4 80.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 1.0 95.7 4.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 93.4 6.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 92.6 7.4